臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

摘要：
本文以 Romer (1990) 及 Hall and Jones(1999) 理論架構為基礎，加入制度面因素，探討制度、人力資本、和經濟成長之間的關係。發現一國的總人力資本數量及該國的制度品質，是影響經濟成長最主要的兩個因素。當一國制度品質愈完善，愈能吸引國際資金和人才的進入，因此經濟成長率就會愈高。由於市場均衡的 GDP 成長率較社會福利最大時的 GDP 成長率小，因此政府可透過增加對外開放程度或強化國內制度品質等政策，提高長期的經濟成長率。
實證方面，利用包括金磚十五國以及七大工業國共二十四個國家的資料，對理論模型進行估計和檢定。結果顯示，制度和總人力資本均對經濟成長有顯著的影響，而制度的影響力又更明顯。制度的好壞對開發中國家或新興經濟體 ( 如金磚國家 )，不僅是正面而且是十分顯著的；但對於高度開發國家 ( 如七大工業國 )，其影響就相對減弱，以致每人所得和制度之間呈現「倒-U」的關係。此外，人口規模效果對經濟成長的直接貢獻的確不顯著，制度開放才是相對重要的因素；政府應回歸到經濟的基本面，讓市場機能在自由開放的制度下發揮，由此產生的制度改善效果，遠比任何其他政策更有效。
隨著近年來國家制度面問題，已逐漸為政府及專家學者重視，相信陸續會出現更詳細完整的資料，一旦更多制度面資料可被運用時，就可再次對此課題進行更深入地探討。

Abstract：
　　In this paper an institution-based endogenous growth model is proposed, which is inspired by Romer (1990) and Hall and Jones (1999).
Two factors we find are most important in determining long-run economic growth of a country in the globalized world：institutional quality and human capital. In particular, openness of a country, which is one of the components of institutional quality index, can have significant effects on the attraction of both financial and human capital from abroad. A more open economy would have more capital
inflows, and therefore would grow faster. Because the equilibrium of the model is not Pareto optimal, this gives the government a role to promote economic growth by creating an infrastructure with better institutional quality.

We use both cross-sectional and time-series data for 24 countries ( including BRICs and G7 ) to test the hypothesis of the theoretical model. The empirical results show that institutional quality and human capital do have significant effects on long-run growth rates of these countries, but institutions have weakly negative effects on the growth rates of rich countries such as G7. This results in an
“ inverted-U ” relationship between institutional quality and economic growth over the cross section of these countries, which is consistent with the empirical results of Klein (2005). The“ scale effect ”of population on GDP growth rates is weaker, and is valid only through its effects on aggregate human capital stock of a
country.

目錄：

第一章 研究動機與目的
壹、 世界是平的 ………………………………………………… 1.
貳、 金磚四國 …………………………………………………… 2.
參、 小金磚十一國 ……………………………………………… 9.
肆、 本文架構 …………………………………………………… 15.
第二章 文獻回顧
壹、 人口與經濟成長 …………………………………………… 16.
貳、 資本與經濟成長 …………………………………………… 20.
參、 制度與經濟成長 …………………………………………… 24.
第三章 理論模型
壹、 模型介紹 …………………………………………………… 28.
貳、 平衡成長路徑 ……………………………………………… 32.
第四章 實證結果與分析
壹、 資料來源 …………………………………………………… 40.
貳、 時間序列實證結果 ………………………………………… 43.
參、 跨國橫斷面實證結果 ……………………………………… 52.
第五章 結論 ………………………………………………………… 68.
附錄 …………………………………………………………………… 71.
參考文獻 ………………………………………………………………… 77.

壹、中文部分

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朱雲鵬 (2005)，〈BRICs是金磚還是空心磚〉，《財團法人國家政策研究基金會國改分
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