臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

供應鏈普遍存在長鞭效應，主要是因為供應鏈中各個階段分別針對其目標而有不同的需求與預測，因此各項資訊在整體傳遞的過程中不免會產生扭曲現象。VICS協會在1998年提出一套協同規劃、預測與補貨（CPFR）策略，期望藉由一連串指導原則輔助加強企業間協同合作關係，消除長鞭效應。目前CPFR在國內的應用尚未普及化，但在全球已經有超過三百家企業導入流程，許多個案成功減少2%到8%的店內現貨，降低10%到40%的總存貨，可預見在不久的將來，將會在全球產業間及學術界引發更熱烈的話題，而對於之前在國內已施行供應鏈管理的組織而言，將會持續引進用來解決供應鏈中長鞭效應所帶來的問題。
本研究之研究目的有三：一、分析導入CPFR系統時，四個階段：「策略與規劃」、「需求與供給管理」、「共同執行」和「共同分析」的重要性和內涵；二、歸納CPFR系統在導入的四個階段中，「科技」、「組織」和「環境」三個構面的重要性和關鍵成功因素所具有之內涵；三、提供未來欲導入CPFR系統之業者作參考，以利企業能有效運用資源，使其資源聚焦，創造策略價值。
主要研究對象為已導入CPFR系統之業者和供應鏈管理相關CPFR領域之專家學者，針對本研究主題建立一層級架構；第一層：CPFR系統導入的四個階段、第二層：TOE三構面和第三層：十五個關鍵成功因素，採用問卷的方式，填答對象包含業者九家、輔導單位二家、CPFR資訊軟體業者一家和學者四位，共十六份，再藉由較能適切表達人類語意的灰色層級分析法（GAHP）進行資料分析。
研究結果顯示，導入第一階段「策略與規劃」的重要性最高，再來是第四階段「共同分析」、第三階段「共同執行」，最後是第二階段「需求與供給管理」；整體上而言，較重視例外管理和夥伴間的協同合作關係。TOE三個構面中，「組織」的重要程度一直都是最高，尤其重視組織文化和上級的支持，在系統的整體運作上被認為具有關鍵性的影響力；「環境」中特別注重與交易夥伴彼此間的協同合作關係；「科技」的重點是要能為組織帶來競爭力與利益。
對未來欲導入CPFR系統之業者有以下五點建議：一、申請政府補助；二、了解公司目前是否具備執行CPFR的成熟度，確認並填補資源差距；三、在選擇計劃內容時，應選擇三個月內即可看見成效的品類及範圍，避免因執行過久卻無法看到成效而失焦的問題；四、由上而下推動，尤其是高階管理者的涉入；五、把CPFR當成協同合作的工具，創造企業核心價值，業者與夥伴間彼此都要抱著雙贏的心態來合作。

Supply Chain generally makes Bullwhip Effect. Therefore, VICS submitted a set strategy of the collaborative planning，forecasting and replenishment in 1998, that expects to promote cooperation and eliminate Bullwhip Effect. CPFR application is not popular in Taiwan, but there are over three hundred using in world. In many cases it was successful to reduced spot goods by 2%~8% and reduced inventory by 10%~40%.
The goal of this research has three: 1.Analysis of four phases in CPFR implementation: “Strategy & Planning”﹑”Demand & Supply Management”﹑”Execution” and “Analysis”, individual importance and meaning. 2.Induction of the meaning on the Key Success Factors of four phases in CPFR implementation and the importance of “Technology”﹑”Organization” and ”Environment”. 3. In future, we suggest reference for the industries, could be efficient to using resources and focusing resources, to create strategic value.
The subject of the research is for having been implemented the CPFR and experts or scholars in Supply Chain Management. To build up a hierarchy has three levels: The first is CPFR implementation of the four phases. The second is TOE dimensions. The third is fifteen of the Key Success Factors. The study is used questionnaires. It amounts to 16 questionnaires, which include nine industries, two counseling unit, one corporation of software in CPFR and four scholars. Then we use the Gray-Analytic Hierarchy Process to analyze data.
The results show that the most importance in CPFR implementation is the fist phase “Strategy & Planning”, then the fourth phase “Analysis”, the third phase ” Execution”, the letter is the second phase “Demand& Supply Management”. On the whole, they pay more attention to exception management and collaboration. In TOE, organizational importance is always the highest, especially organizational culture and top management support. Environment attach to collaboration. Technology attach to benefit and competition for organization.
Five recommendations for industries implementing CPFR in future: 1. Apply for subvention from government. 2. Understand company maturity that can execute the CPFR now and confirm to fill in the resource gap. 3. Choose the content of plans that easy find the effect of the scope and species, avoid executing the plans too long to lose it focus. 4. Execute form top-down, especially involvement level of top managers. 5. Use CPFR to be a tool for collaboration, create the core value of industries, industries must be holding the win-win attitude in cooperation with partners.

第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 研究目的 3
1.3 研究流程 3
第二章 文獻探討 5
2.1 協同規劃、預測與補貨(CPFR) 5
2.1.1CPFR的定義 6
2.1.2 CPFR架構與指導原則（roadmap） 7
2.1.3 CPFR模式 9
2.1.4 CPFR的相關研究 17
2.1.5 CPFR實行的障礙 20
2.2 關鍵成功因素 23
2.2.1 關鍵成功因素的定義 23
2.2.2 關鍵成功因素的特性與來源 26
2.2.3 確認關鍵成功因素的方法與步驟 27
2.2.4 實證上確認關鍵成功因素的方法 32
2.3 資訊系統之導入 35
2.3.1 資訊系統導入階段 36
2.3.2 影響創新資訊系統導入的構面 36
2.3.3 資訊系統導入關鍵因素 39
第三章 研究方法 59
3.1 研究步驟 59
3.2 資料蒐集方法 59
3.3 研究對象 60
3.4 問卷設計 60
3.4.1 建立構面和導入變數 60
3.4.2 CPFR導入關鍵成功因素之層級架構 69
3.4 灰色層級分析法 69
3.4.1 層級分析法 69
3.4.2 灰色層級分析法 71
第四章 研究結果與分析 80
4.1 問卷回收結果整理 80
4.2 資料評析 80
4.2.1 系統導入四階段之白化權重值及重要性排序 81
4.2.2 第一階段之白化權重值及重要性排序 82
4.2.3 第二階段之白化權重值及重要性排序 86
4.2.4 第三階段之白化權重值及重要性排序 90
4.2.5 第四階段之白化權重值及重要性排序 93
4.3 統計分析結果 97
第五章 結論 100
5.1 結論 100
5.2 建議 107
參考文獻 108


表 目 錄
表2-1 CPFR模式變更前後對照表 14
表2-2 CPFR作業流程資料輸入/輸出一覽表 15
表2-3 CPFR關鍵績效指標彙整 16
表2-4 國外CPFR相關研究整理 18
表2-5 國內CPFR相關研究整理 19
表2-6 CPFR的挑戰 21
表2-7 關鍵成功因素定義彙總表 24
表2-8 關鍵成功因素的特性與來源 28
表2-9 Rockart確認關鍵成功因素之分析 29
表2-10 八種確認關鍵成功因素的分析法 30
表2-11 不同資訊系統實施階段模式 37
表2-12 創新採用資訊系統的影響構面 38
表2-13 採用TOE架構相關文獻 39
表2-14 資訊系統導入相關文獻之研究構面彙整 53
表3-1 CPFR系統導入四個階段描述 61
表3-2 TOE架構三構面描述 61
表3-3 導入CPFR關鍵成功因素–科技構面 62
表3-4 導入CPFR關鍵成功因素–組織構面 63
表3-5 導入CPFR關鍵成功因素–環境構面 65
表3-6 導入CPFR關鍵成功因素描述 68
表3-7 語意評估量表 76
表4-1 問卷填答對象一覽表 81
表4-2 系統導入四階段之白化權重值及重要性排序 82
表4-3 Ⅰ.TOE三構面之白化權重值及重要性排序 83
表4-4 Ⅰ.科技面之白化權重值及重要性排序 83
表4-5 Ⅰ.組織面之白化權重值及重要性排序 84
表4-6 Ⅰ.環境面之白化權重值及重要性排序 85
表4-7 Ⅱ.TOE三構面之白化權重值及重要性排序 86
表4-8 Ⅱ.科技面之白化權重值及重要性排序 87
表4-9 Ⅱ.組織面之白化權重值及重要性排序 88
表4-10 Ⅱ.環境面之白化權重值及重要性排序 89
表4-11 Ⅲ.TOE三構面之白化權重值及重要性排序 90
表4-12 Ⅲ.科技面之白化權重值及重要性排序 91
表4-13 Ⅲ.組織面之白化權重值及重要性排序 92
表4-14 Ⅲ.環境面之白化權重值及重要性排序 93
表4-15 Ⅳ.TOE三構面之白化權重值及重要性排序 94
表4-16 Ⅳ.科技面之白化權重值及重要性排序 95
表4-17 Ⅳ.組織面之白化權重值及重要性排序 96
表4-18 Ⅳ.環境面之白化權重值及重要性排序 97
表4-19 整體綜合權重值及重要性排序 99

圖 目 錄
圖1-1 研究流程圖 4
圖2-1 CPFR整體架構 8
圖2-2 CPFR九大步驟 10
圖2-3 2004年版本之CPFR模型 13
圖2-4 關鍵成功因素分析層級與策略形成過程關係圖 29
圖3-1 導入CPFR關鍵成功因素層級架構圖 70
圖3-2 GAHP分析流程圖 75
圖4-1 層級關係權重分配圖 98

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138.林則孟，協同規劃、預測與補貨，http://cimlab.ie.nthu.edu.tw/www/cpfr.htm
139.航網科技股份有限公司網站，http://www.niceshipping.com
140.CPFR，http://www.cpfr.org
141.ECCC，http://www.eccc.org/public/new/press/07_01.html
142.OASIS，http://www.oasis-open.org/committees/tc_home.php?wg_abbrev=wsbpel.
143.VICS協會，http://www.vics.org