臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本文旨在探討不確定性對公司投資決策之影響，並以台灣上市公司之長期追蹤資料（panel data）實證不確定性對公司投資決策之影響。本文運用兩種統計方法，以銷售額變動幅度來建立不確定性的衡量，並將不確定性分解為總體面、產業面與公司面三個因子來探討，再以兩種計量模式來驗證不確定性與投資的關係。最後加入公司屬性的考量，將公司劃分為融資限制的公司與非資限制公司，企圖了解兩種公司之投資決策對不確定性敏感度的差異。實證結果發現不確定性愈高，愈是對公司投資決策有不利影響，但總體面的不確定性愈大，公司愈傾向增加投資，同時也發現資本不可逆（irreversibility）與資本市場路徑（capital market access）在不確定性與投資決策的關係間扮演了重要的角色。

The study discusses the relationship between uncertainty and investment, and empirically analyzes the effect of uncertainty on investment based on the panel data set of listed companies in Taiwan. The uncertainty measure, represented by the conditional standard deviation of net sales, is constructed by employing two different statistical methods. We further decompose the demand uncertainty into aggregate, industry-wide, and firm-specific forms of uncertainty to specify the relationship between uncertainties and investment by applying two econometric models. We finally classify the companies into financially constrained group and financially unconstrained group to study whether or not the impact of uncertainty on investment is different across firms, depending on the access to capital markets. We find that uncertainty exerts a significant negative effect on investment irrespective of the statistical methods chosen. The negative relationship between uncertainty and investment is closely related to the degree of irreversibility of capital, and the quantitative negative impact is greater in financially constrained firms, which means that both irreversibility and capital market access play important roles on the impact of uncertainty on investment. These results are robust to alternative procedures for measuring uncertainty and alternative ways of segmenting companies into financially constrained and unconstrained groups.

第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景 1
第二節 研究動機 3
第三節 研究目的 4
第四節 研究架構 5
第二章 文獻探討 6
第一節 投資決策相關理論 6
第二節 不確定性對投資的影響 9
第三節 投資與總和不確定、個別不確定之關係 14
第四節 融資限制 18
第三章 研究方法 21
第一節 研究假說 21
第二節 研究期間、對象與資料來源 23
第三節 變數衡量與操作性定義 24
第四節 實證模式 31
第四章 實證結果分析 34
第一節 樣本資料分析 34
第二節 不確定性對投資決策之影響 41
第三節 不同來源不確定性對投資決策之影響 46
第四節 融資限制造成的差異 50
第五章 結論 59
第一節 結論與建議 59
第二節 研究限制 61
參考文獻 62
附錄一 68
附錄二 69

ㄧ、中文部份

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