臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本文係以Frenkel and Rodriguez(1982)與Sutherland(1995)的模型為基礎，在資本呈現不完全移動的前提下，運用傳統的隨機微分方程解析與具經濟直覺的Lai and Chang(2001)「新圖解法」兩種分析方式，來探討當經濟體系面臨商品需求面的隨機性干擾時，貨幣當局所施行匯率目標區政策，是否具安定相關總體經濟變數的效果。我們可以獲得以下結論：
1、 若資本移動程度相對較大，匯率及產出水準具安定效果，但利率及物價水準則不具安定效果；且無法解釋Kempa and Nelles(1999)所觀察到的匯率與利率兩者變動方向呈現正相關的實證結果。若資本移動程度相對較小時，所得結論將完全相左。
2、 民眾面對匯率目標區的邊界不確定政策時，與匯率目標區邊界確定政策下所得結論完全相同。
3、 民眾面對匯率目標區持續維持抑或重整的不確定政策時，若預期重整民眾比例相對較大，所得結論將與匯率目標區邊界確定政策下完全相左。

第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 1
第二節 本文架構 3
第三節 文獻回顧 4
第二章 理論模型 7
第一節 模型設定 7
第二節 隨機微分方程解析 10
第三節　直覺的幾何圖形解析 18
第三章 不確定的干預政策：邊界不確定 25
第一節 隨機微分方程解析 25
第二節 直覺的幾何圖形解析 31
第四章 不確定的干預政策：目標區與重整 35
第一節 隨機微分方程解析 35
第二節 直覺的幾何圖形解析 38
第五章 結論與檢討 43
圖例 45
數學附錄 74
附錄A 74
附錄B 75
參考文獻 77

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