本文採用引力模型來檢驗台灣出口的決定要素。本文主要的核心問題是：(1)區域的或優惠的貿易協定對影響台灣出口貿易的衝擊為何？亦即，本文研究NAFTA、EU與非正式中華經濟圈(即台灣、香港及兩岸三地)的貿易區塊是否對會員國有貿易移轉的可能性。(2)對外直接投資的在貿易流量變化中所扮演的角色為何？透過Panel data 的分析，我們發現固定效果的引力模型是優於隨機效果的引力模型。本文的主要結論是：其一、匯率波動與區域整合似乎對台灣出口貿易的影響並不顯著。其二、兩岸三地貿易區塊的效果顯著地有助於台灣的出口貿易。其三、對外直接投資的變數對台灣出口貿易，並無顯著助益。

This paper applies a gravity model to examine the determinants of Taiwan exports. The core questions asked by this paper are: (i) what is the impact of the regional or preferential trade agreement on Taiwan’s exports? i.e. we examine whether there is any possibility of the NAFTA, EU, and informal Chinese circle (including Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Mainland China) trading bloc diverting trade with non-members. (ii) what is the role of foreign direct investment in trade flows? Through use of panel data analysis, we find that the fixed effect model is to be preferred to the random effects gravity model. The main findings are summarized as follows. First of all, exchange rate volatility and regional economic integrations (such as NAFTA, EU, and AFTA) do not seem to matter much for Taiwan’s exports. Secondly, the effect of trading bloc in Chinese circle matter and it stimulates Taiwan’s exports. Finally, the estimated coefficient of foreign direct investment is insignificant to promote Taiwan’s exports.

目 錄

第一章 序論............................................................................................1
第一節 研究動機與目的.........................................................................................1
第二節 研究架構.....................................................................................................8
第二章 文獻回顧...................................................................................................9
第三章 實證模型與變數資料說明................................................................14
第一節 模型設定..................................................................................................14
第二節 資料來源...................................................................................................18

第四章 實證結果.................................................................................................20
第五章 結論與建議............................................................................................26
參考文獻...................................................................................................................28

圖 目 錄

圖1-1、台灣對NAFTA、EU及AFTA出口貿易圖......................................................34
圖1-2、台灣NAFTA、EU、AFTA及中國大陸投資金額圖.........................................34
圖1-3、研究流程圖........................................................................................................8


表 目 錄

表1-1、台灣出口到各國比重與名次表......................................................................35
表1-2、國際競爭指數相關係數表..............................................................................36
表1-3、FDI流入區域分配表.......................................................................................37
表3-1、雙邊貿易國一覽表..........................................................................................38
表3-2、各國首都一覽表..............................................................................................39
表3-3、各變數資料來源和單位表..............................................................................40
表4-1、Durbin-Watson自我相關檢定.........................................................................41
表4-2、Adjusted Durbin- Watson自我相關檢定........................................................41
表4-3、模型一廻歸結果表..........................................................................................42
表4-4、模型二廻歸結果表..........................................................................................43
表4-5、模型三廻歸結果表..........................................................................................44

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