臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

在九○年代興起了一個新的財政理論－物價決定之財政理論 (The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level,FTPL)，該理論宣稱物價水準是由政府預算限制式所決定，財政變數影響物價水準的之決定，並非如傳統上所言，物價水準是由貨幣面所決定。Woodford (1995)將物價水準由財政面決定定義為“非李嘉圖制度”；而物價水準由貨幣面決定定義為“李嘉圖制度”。因此，本文首先介紹一些FTPL的主要論點及討論對該理論之批評。
為了找尋台灣現在或是過去，是否存在非李嘉圖制度之現象。因此本文採用三種檢驗方法。首先，我們以Canzoneri et al.(2001b)的方法，建立一個VAR模型，探討盈餘/GDP的衝擊對債務/GDP的影響，以判斷經濟體系是否處於非李嘉圖制度，但並未發現台灣的經濟是處於非李嘉圖制度。接著，以Sala (2004) 的方法，建立一個VAR模型，探討實質稅收的衝擊對於實質GDP、實質稅收、實質支出、實質利率、實質債務之影響，若實質稅收的衝擊對實質利率的影響為正向的，則判斷為非李嘉圖制度，因此我們檢驗出台灣在1968年至1982年可能處於非李嘉圖制度。最後，利用Granger因果關係檢定盈餘和債務及盈餘和通貨膨脹率之間的關係，並未發現台灣是處於非李嘉圖制度下。

The fiscal theory of the price level (FTPL) has been recently received important attention as an alternative theory of price determination. This theory asserts that if primary surpluses evolve independently of nominal debt, the price level has to adjust to satisfy the intertemporal budget constraint of the public sector. In this “Non-Ricardian” regime, fiscal policy dominates monetary policy, and fiscal policy is the nominal anchor. In the alternative “Ricardian” regime, surpluses respond to debt, and monetary policy is the nominal anchor. So this paper raises some propositions and the critiques of FTPL.
Then, the relevance of the theory for Taiwan is examined, and three extensions to the empirical studies of the FTPL are proposed. First, based on VAR on Surplus/GDP and Liabilities/GDP, following the approach of Canzoneri et al.(2001b), there is no evidence to say that Taiwan would have led to an Non-Ricardian regime. Second, the methodology initiated by Sala (2004) is applied to this study. Sala points out that in the Non-Ricardian regime, the response of real interest to an innovation in real tax revenue is positive. Accordingly, the result for Taiwan in 1968-1982 could be classified as the Non- Ricardian regime. Last, Granger Causality are tested for the sample period. It is found that FTPL is not applicable to Taiwan in those periods.

第一章 緒論
一． 研究動機與目的………………………………………1
二． 本文架構………………………………………………3
第二章 文獻回顧
一． 理論發展………………………………………………4
二． FTPL模型介紹…………………………………………6
三． 對FTPL的批評………………………………………16
四． 實證結果彚整………………………………………21
第三章 研究方法
一． 研究範圍及期間……………………………………24
二． 資料分析……………………………………………25
三． 實證方法一：CCD (2001b) 模型簡介……………26
四． 實證方法二：Sala (2004) 模型簡介……………28
五． 實證方法三：Granger因果關係檢定……………30
第四章 實證結果分析
一． 實證結果一：CCD (2001b) ………………………32
二． 實證結果二：Sala (2004) ………………………38
三． 實證結果三：Granger因果關係檢定……………45
第五章 結論…………………………………………………………………46
參考文獻…………………………………………………………48
附錄一：Sala (2004)模擬經濟體系在李嘉圖及非李嘉圖制度下之衝擊反應分析.52

圖2-1，物價水準的決定與不確定性……………………………12
圖2-2，初始債務與最終債務之關係……………………………18
圖2-3，物價水準之時間路徑……………………………………20
圖2-4，考慮盈餘與債務關係後之初始債務與最終債務之關係……21
圖3-1，1968年至2004年盈餘與負債之關係圖………………………25
圖3-2，1962年至2004年各級政府財政狀況…………………………27
圖3-3，1962年至2004年實質利率圖…………………………………29
圖4-1，1968年至2004年盈餘/GDP的衝擊對債務/GDP之影響………33
圖4-2，1968年至1987年盈餘/GDP的衝擊對債務/GDP之影響………35
圖4-3，1988年至2004年盈餘/GDP的衝擊對債務/GDP之影響……………37
圖4-4，1968年至1982年實質GDP及實質稅收之衝擊反應圖……………41
圖4-5，1988年至2004年實質GDP及實質稅收之衝擊反應圖……………42
圖4-6，1968年至1982年政府負債、政府收支之關係圖……………43
圖4-7，1962年至2005年名目匯率圖…………………………………44
圖A-1，模擬經濟體系在李嘉圖制度下之衝擊反應分析……………52
圖A-2，模擬經濟體系在非李嘉圖制度下之衝擊反應分析…………52


表2-1，對FTPL定義上之不同…………………………………………10
表2-2，貨幣政策與物價決定之關係…………………………………18
表2-3，實證結果彚整…………………………………………………22
表3-1，研究變數彚整表………………………………………………25
表4-1，1968年至2004年盈餘/GDP之自我相關函數值表……………34
表4-2，1968年至1987年盈餘/GDP之自我相關函數值表……………36
表4-3，1988年至2004年盈餘/GDP之自我相關函數值表……………38
表4-4，盈餘和債務間之因果關係……………………………………45
表4-5，盈餘和通貨膨脹間之因果關係………………………………45

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