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研究生:黃莉芸
研究生(外文):Li-Yun Huang
論文名稱:不確定狀況下產品委外作業之研究--整合型模糊實質選擇權模式之分析
論文名稱(外文):Product Outsourcing under Uncertainty:An Integration of Fuzzy Real Option Model Approach
指導教授:陳昭宏陳昭宏引用關係黃錦法黃錦法引用關係
指導教授(外文):Jao-Hong ChengChing Fa Huang
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立雲林科技大學
系所名稱:資訊管理系碩士班
學門:電算機學門
學類:電算機一般學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2006
畢業學年度:94
語文別:英文
論文頁數:53
中文關鍵詞:模糊決策空間權重模糊實質選擇權模糊實質選擇權產品委外
外文關鍵詞:Fuzzy decision spaceWeighted fuzzy real optionFuzzy real optionProduct outsourcing
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  • 被引用被引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:143
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近年來在全球市場競爭壓力下,組織為了減少產品之成本與提高競爭力,因此不少組織利用外包之方式,將其已經成熟或不具核心競爭力之產品予以委外,進而減少產品成本之增加。因此有研究指出,有超過百分之九十的公司皆認為,委外已經成為他們在制定商業策略中重要的一部分,因此產品委外已逐漸成為組職在欲獲得競爭優勢時的最佳利器。
然而,在早期,組織一般大多使用傳統預算評估的方法來分析(如:淨現值法),但傳統預算評估方法大部分皆因不具有投資彈性之考量,且易造成未來價值之高估或低估,因此也常常為人所詬病。
為了改善傳統分析方法之缺點,1973年學者Black及Scholes便提出了選擇權評價模式之概念,近年來也有許多學者,依據此模式加以改良,而讓此模式更能符合現實世界之需求,較為著名的是將此評價模式加入模糊理論概之念。另在2005年也有學者Lee等人提出以事件機率及貝氏定理為概念之選擇權評價模式,其利用模糊樣本空間之概念,來估算投資案之未來價值。
本研究之目標,主要是將以選擇權評價模式為基礎,結合不同學者所提出之理論,而將這些模式去蕪存菁,整合其原有之精神與其優點,進而提出一個適合組織評估投資案之模型。本研究藉由產品委外案例之實證,檢視模式中參數對模式影響的大小與方向,而結果顯示本研究所提出之整合型模式比先前學者所提之模式,是更有具穩健性及彈性之模式,希望能提供給投資者在制定決策時能有更佳的評估方式。
In recent years, in order to decrease product’s cost and improve competitive ability many organizations use the outsourcing. More than 90 percent of companies said that outsourcing is an important part of their overall business strategy. Therefore, product outsourcing is becoming the best tool to acquire competitive advantage. In the past organizations often use traditional approaches, but these approaches may result in undervalue or overvalue. This study compares with fuzzy real option, weighted fuzzy real option and fuzzy decision space in order to integrate these approaches. This study uses an empirical analysis of real case to fine the optimum call price. According to the result, the model that this study developed is showed stable and flexible. This study hopes that this approach will provide the better decision making for investors.
摘要 i
Abstract ii
誌謝 iii
Table of Contents iv
List of Figures vi
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
Chapter 2 Literature Review 4
2.1 The Uncertainty of product outsourcing 4
2.2 Net Present Value (NPV) 7
2.3 Real Options Presentation 9
2.3.1 The Concept of Real Options 9
2.3.2 The Formulation of Real Option 10
2.4 The Fuzzy Real Option Approach 11
2.5 The Weighted of Fuzzy real option 14
2.5.1 Weighted Possibilistic Mean and Variance 16
2.6 Fuzzy Decision Space 18
2.6.1 The Prior and Posterior Probability of Fuzzy Events 18
2.6.2 The Prior and Posterior Probability of Fuzzy State ( ) 20
2.6.3 The Expected Call Price of Fuzzy Action 20
2.6.4 Expected Value of and 21
2.6.5 The Fuzzy Decision Space of Real Option 21
2.7 Summary 22
Chapter 3 The Structure of Research Model 25
3.1 The Modification of Fuzzy Decision Space of Real Option 25
3.2 Research Process 27
Chapter 4 Empirical study 30
4.1 Identify Related Parameters 30
4.2 Results 36
Chapter 5 Conclusion 41
Future Study 42
References 43
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