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研究生:張淑盈
研究生(外文):Shu-Ying Chang
論文名稱:財務分析師對公司宣告重整消息反應之實證研究
論文名稱(外文):An Empirical Study of Financial Analysts’ Reacting to Restructurings
指導教授:鍾彩焱
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:元智大學
系所名稱:會計學系
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:會計學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2006
畢業學年度:94
語文別:中文
論文頁數:44
中文關鍵詞:自發性重整分析師盈餘預測修正分析師預測誤差
外文關鍵詞:Analysts’ Forecast RevisionVoluntary RestructuringAnalysts’ Forecast Error
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:3
  • 點閱點閱:262
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  • 下載下載:0
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:1
Gibbs(1993)、Daniels et al.(1995)當公司提出一重整計劃時,往往是希望藉由公司組織再造、裁員、公司資產的出售及處分,以達到改善營運困難之目的;Chaney et al.(1999)假如分析師能從財報上輕易地了解重整事件,則分析師的長期盈餘預測誤差會相對地較小;Mendenhall(1991)的實證結果指出,分析師的預測修正數與下期盈餘宣告日附近的異常報酬兩者間具有顯著的正向關係。因此綜合上述文獻可知:在資本市場中,財務分析師之盈餘預測在決定公司市場股票價值中扮演很重要的角色,因此當公司有重整活動發生時,公司的價值也將跟著受影響。而本研究主要是想了解,分析師在公司發生重整事件後1至3年,特殊項目之金額與分析師盈餘預測修正數、預測誤差之關聯性;以及分析師預測修正數與預測誤差之關聯性。

而本研究結果指出:(1)分析師對於重整金額較大的公司其盈餘預測行為愈樂觀,而且分析師長期盈餘預測樂觀的程度比短期盈餘樂觀的程度還來得高。(2)分析師短期盈餘預測的準確性比長期盈餘預測的準確性還來得高。
Gibbs(1993)、Daniels et al.(1995) report that financial distressed companies often to bring up restructuring programs such as reengineering, assets disposal, or reduction of employment in order to improve their financial performance. Chaney et al.(1999) report that if restructuring charges make it easier to interpret the financial statements , then analysts’ forecast errors should be lower subsequent to the charge. Mendenhall (1991) documents a significant positive association between forecast revisions and the abnormal returns around subsequent earnings announcements. Built upon extant research, I investigate analysts forecast behavior in response to the announcements of corporate restructurings, including forecast revision and the degree of forecast errors.

The evidence indicates that (1) on average, analysts overestimate earnings to a greater extent subsequent to a large restructuring charges than small restructuring charges, and (2) The accuracy of short forecast horizons is higher than the that of long forecast horizons for restructuring forms versus non-restructuring firms.
【目錄】
頁次
摘要 ……………………………………………………………I
Abstract ……………………………………………………………II
目錄 ……………………………………………………………III
圖、表次 ……………………………………………………………IV
第一章 緒論………………………………………………………
第一節 研究動機…………………………………………………1
第二節 研究目的…………………………………………………2
第三節 研究架構…………………………………………………3
第二章 文獻探討…………………………………………………
第一節 自發性重整行為之相關研究……………………………4
第二節 分析師盈餘預測誤差之統討特性………………………6
第三節 分析師盈餘預測誤差之影響因素………………………8
第三章 研究設計…………………………………………………
第一節 研究假說…………………………………………………9
第二節 變數衡量…………………………………………………10
第三節 資料來源及樣本選取標準………………………………14
第四節 研究模型之建立…………………………………………18
第四章 實證結果與分析…………………………………………
第一節 基本統計量………………………………………………19
第二節 多變量迴歸分析…………………………………………21
第五章 結論與限制………………………………………………
第一節 研究結論…………………………………………………24
第二節 研究限制…………………………………………………26
參考文獻………………………………………………………………27

【圖、表次】
頁次
圖1 分析師預測修正數與預測誤差說明圖……………………… 29
表3-1 樣本依年度、季節別之分布情形………………………… 30
表3-2 樣本依產業別之分布情形………………………………… 31
表3-3 分析師盈餘預測樂觀、悲觀家數之年度彙總分析……… 33
表3-4 分析師盈餘預測向上、向下修正家數之年度彙總分析… 34
表3-5 Panel A分析師盈餘預測樂觀、悲觀之家數總分析………35
Panel B分析師盈餘向上、向下修正之家數總分析………35
表4-1 各變數敘述性統計分析…………………………………… 36
表4-2 模型一之重整後第一年自變數相關係數表……………… 37
表4-3 模型一之重整後第二年自變數相關係數表……………… 38
表4-4 模型一之重整後第三年自變數相關係數表……………… 39
表4-5 模型二之重整後第一年自變數相關係數表……………… 40
表4-6 模型二之重整後第二年自變數相關係數表……………… 41
表4-7 模型二之重整後第三年自變數相關係數表……………… 42
表4-8 模型一之迴歸結果………………………………………… 43
表4-9 模型二之迴歸結果………………………………………… 44
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