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研究生:曹佑任
研究生(外文):Yu-Jen Tsao
論文名稱:柔性鋪面養護初期成本估算之案例式推理專家系統發展與研究
論文名稱(外文):Web-based CBR (case-based reasoning)system with the application to estimate preliminary cost of pavement maintenance project
指導教授:周瑞生周瑞生引用關係
指導教授(外文):Rayson Chou
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立中正大學
系所名稱:企業管理所
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:企業管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2007
畢業學年度:95
語文別:中文
論文頁數:129
中文關鍵詞:Web-based案例式推理特徵向量法柔性鋪面成本管理專家系統
外文關鍵詞:Expert systemCost managementFlexible pavementEigenvector methodWeb-based CBR
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:2
  • 點閱點閱:348
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  • 下載下載:83
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:0
台灣西部走廊日趨完整與密集的公路交通網路,使得國內公路主管單位的重心由新建工程逐漸轉移至現有公路之養護工程,公路養護作業之重要性與日俱增,其中又以柔性鋪面養護工程專案最為大宗。由於每年所需進行維修及養護之工程數量漸增,公路工程養護成本效益控管需仰賴一合理準確的鋪面養護專家系統提供工程成本初期值與專案資訊,協助工程單位在有限的預算下,執行鋪面養護優選作業。
本研究以資料蒐集、現地訪談、問卷調查及台灣交通部所訂定之公路養護手冊相關規定彙整公路工程專案之工程基本資訊與成本估算資料表,運用Web-based案例式推理(Case-based Reasoning)結合特徵向量法(Eigenvector Method)建構柔性鋪面養護成本推估之專家系統,於鋪面養護案例資料庫中依屬性權重橫跨專案比對相似度最高的工程項目成本值,以作為工程人員的參考基值,並蒐集81筆鋪面養護案例資料進行實證研究。經案例式推理程序估算及K-fold交叉驗証模式準確率,結果顯示系統輸出之估算養護成本誤差可達7%,因此本研究發展之估價雛型專家系統能有效估算鋪面養護之施作成本及合理應用於初期優選決策作業中。本研究目的在發展一雛型案例式推理專家系統,使估算作業流程自動化、標準化及資訊電子化,以提供工程人員即時估算工程成本初期值並紀錄相關工程資訊,協助工程人員進行養護工程之優選決策、初期規劃,進而合理運用有限的預算與資源達到工程的最佳效益。
With the increasing density of transportation networks in Taiwan western corridor, the cost-efficacy control of pavement maintenance is critical to the infrastructure asset management. To effectively manage a large amount of projects with limited resources, efficient estimating cost with reasonable accuracy and documentation of project information are in need for the optimal decision-making. The primary objective of this study is to develop a case-based reasoning (CBR) expert prototype system at the work item level for the pavement maintenance project. It aims at determining relative priorities by providing initial project cost and information promptly, based on the experience of the pavement maintenance experts. Design and implementation of a Web-based system is laid out in this paper based on basis project information, domestic considerations, and historical data. Furthermore, influential attributes employed in the CBR system are determined through interviews, questionnaires, and data analysis. Historical data of 81 completed pavement maintenance projects are collected from the Taiwan transportation agencies. K-fold cross validation are used to verify the CBR estimating system. The results indicate that the mean error is below 30 percent for item-level estimates, and show the ability of the CBR system to estimate the preliminary total cost of pavement maintenance projects within the moderate precision. The developed prototype Web-based CBR system has the following features: (1) providing an alternative to improve the decision making process of budgets allocation; (2) an estimating tool that combines historical trend-based data and construction knowledge; (3) an automatic system through timely and accurate information in an efficient way.
目錄
圖目錄 V
表目錄 VI
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究動機 1
1.2 研究目的 2
1.3 研究範圍與限制 3
1.4 研究流程 3
1.5 研究架構 5
第二章 文獻探討 6
2.1 專家系統與鋪面應用實例 6
2.2 工程初期估價 9
2.3 案例式推理(Case-Based Reasoning , CBR) 12
2.4 特徵向量法(Eigenvector Method) 18
2.5 鋪面養護初期成本因子 21
2.6 鋪面養護成本 24
2.7 本章結論 29
第三章 系統開發與模式驗證 30
3.1 系統開發概念 30
3.2 案例式推理系統建置程序 32
3.2.1 系統輸入 33
3.2.2 建立案例庫及案例資料分析表 34
3.2.3 屬性相似度之演算 37
3.2.4 建立屬性權重 37
3.2.5 案例修正 42
3.3 模式驗證 46
第四章 系統模組規劃與發展 54
4.1 系統環境 54
4.2 系統架構與弁鉏珩梜W劃 54
第五章 結論與建議 72
5.1 結論 72
5.2 後續研究與建議 73
參考文獻 75
附錄
附錄A:公路養護訪談紀錄 80
附錄B:養護工程單位資料表 85
附錄C:路面養護問卷 88
附錄D:問卷回收表 104
附錄E:工程案件統計表 106
附錄F:案例庫屬性資料表 108
附錄G:鋪面養護主要項目成本(單位:元) 113
附錄H:鋪面養護巡查資料調查表 117
附錄I:案例編碼規則 119
附錄J:營造工程物價指數 121
圖目錄
圖1.1研究流程圖 4
圖2.1專家系統基本架構 6
圖2.2 The CBR Cycle 13
圖2.3鋪面養護初期成本因素圖 24
圖2.4鋪面養護成本組成架構 28
圖2.5成本比例陡坡圖 28
圖2.6研究架構 29
圖3.1 Web-based案例式推理循環 32
圖3.2 Web網路架構關係圖 33
圖3.3 MySQL資料庫與專家系統關係圖 36
圖3.4系統估算流程圖 44
圖3.5鋪面養護優選評估架構 45
圖3.6 ten-fold交叉驗証程序示意圖 50
圖4.1系統架構圖 55
圖4.2系統主畫面 55
圖4.3估算弁鉞e面 56
圖4.4部分屬性相似度程式碼 62
圖4.5部分案例相似度程式碼 62
圖4.6部分估算結果顯示程式碼 63
圖4.7案例內容查詢弁鉞e面 64
圖4.8主要工程項目造價查詢弁鉞e面 65
圖4.9部分案例查詢程式碼 68
圖4.10案例新增畫面 69
圖4.11部分案例新增程式碼 71

表目錄
表2.1知名鋪面專家系統 7
表2.2工程初期估價方法彙整 11
表2.3屬性權重演算法彙整表 18
表2.4矩陣大小對應之隨機指標值 20
表2.5規劃設計路面養護工程之考量因素表 22
表2.6鋪面養護初期成本因子表 23
表3.1系統輸入 34
表3.2 柔性鋪面資料表 36
表3.3問卷回收統計表 38
表3.4偏好尺度 39
表3.5基本資料統計表 39
表3.6成對比較矩陣 40
表3.7 AC路面刨除之合成矩陣 41
表3.8屬性權重 41
表3.9系統輸出 43
表3.10模式屬性應用範圍 47
表3.11模式比較 48
表3.12模式準確率 50
表3.13調適後模式準確率 52
表4.1估算弁鉞{式規劃 58
表4.2估算弁鉞{式變數值彙整表 60
表4.3查詢弁鉞{式規劃 67
表4.4查詢弁鉞{式變數值彙整表 68
表4.5新增弁鉞{式規劃 70
表4.6新增弁鉞{式變數值彙整表 71
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