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研究生:陳瑞芸
研究生(外文):Chen Juy Yun
論文名稱:天然橡膠價格波動因素之探討
論文名稱(外文):The Factors of Natural Rubber Price Fluctuation
指導教授:唐啟發唐啟發引用關係
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:大葉大學
系所名稱:事業經營研究所碩士在職專班
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:企業管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2004
畢業學年度:95
語文別:中文
論文頁數:89
中文關鍵詞:SMR20天然橡膠IRSG
外文關鍵詞:NRSRSMR20
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天然橡膠指標價格SMR20由1985年的1,819一路上漲一直到2005年底的最高價6,116,其中從2003年8月的3,572至2005年底的最高價6,116更創下天然橡膠價格的最大漲幅和最高價格。由2003年啟動的原物料大行情中,屬性複雜的天然橡膠顯然也沒有缺席。台灣的橡膠產業蓬勃發展,屬於橡膠製品的產業總生產值,佔全國製造業總生產值百分比,除了90年下降幅度較大之外,平均在一個百分比上下浮動。在2005年的橡膠製品總產值為770億1仟 5百萬元新台幣,與2004年相比負成長1.55%,是繼2002年的連續正成長後的第一次衰退,但其中輪胎總產值提高到379億1仟8百萬元,成長6.0%,工業用橡膠及其他橡膠製品業390億9仟7百萬元,負成長7.9%,此二大類在橡膠總產值中之比重,輪胎業佔橡膠產業的49.2%,工業橡膠及其他佔50.8%,輪胎業持續成長。
西元2005年7月天然橡膠價格的持續飆漲,是自1988年6月以來,間隔17年後的再次超高檔並突破歷史價格再向上調漲,加上合成橡膠所需的石油腦價格因石油價格仍維持高價的互相影響,市場瀰漫需求大於供給的訊息,鼓動全球橡膠製品供需大環境重新洗排,價格的發球權重新回到原料廠手中,原料廠商亦觀望市場價格惜售,在無法壓抑原料價格上漲又無法立即轉嫁原料成本於製品價格下,直接壓縮了橡膠製品的獲利空間,衝擊經營表現,以汽車產業為主的汽車用橡膠零配件及輪胎等,雖然有新汽車量需求及維修市場需求可以增加營業收入,卻無法彌補意外調高的原料成本,而減少營業利潤。
現今國內有關橡膠專業資訊的刊物僅有台灣橡膠公會出版的「橡膠工業」月刊及其相關書籍,其他相關的刊物則十分貧乏,至於其他專業的外文書籍也因國內企業規模、財力及專業翻譯人才有限,因此對上游原物料-天然橡膠的研究更是缺乏,更遑論對上游的原物料價格預期波動而予以避險。天然橡膠的價格波動影響因素非常複雜和廣泛,學生除了將世界橡膠產業做一介紹外,僅以最基本的供給、需求、價格作一基本架構的探討,唯感謝國際橡膠協會(International Rubber Study Group)提供自1985年至2005年的寶貴資料予以分析,在最後結論亦盡可能將影響天然橡膠價格的因素與以列出,希望有興趣的研究人員能有更深入的研究。
The NR (Nature Rubber) benchmark price __ SMR20 up from 1,819US$/tone to 6,116US$/tone since 1985 to the end of 2005, the price up from 3,572US$/tone to 6,116US$/tone during August of 2003 to the end of 2005, in this period create a biggest and highest wave of NR’s price. All of the commercial material prices of the world up since 2003, in all kinds of commercial material, the complicated attribute material _ natural rubber absolutely not absent. The rubber industry of Taiwan is prosperous, the total production percentage of rubber industry in whole country manufactory is floating on the average of 1%, expect downward slightly in 1990. The total rubber production is 77,015,000,000 NT dollars on 2005, compare to 2004 it is negative growth 1.55% and is the first decline of contiguously growth since 2002. The total tire production upward 6% to 37,918,000,000 NT dollar, industrial and others rubber production negative growth 7.9% downward to 39,097,000,000, this two parts weight in the rubber industry, the tire is 49.2% of rubber industry, industrial and others rubber is 50.8% of rubber industry, the tire keep going growth.
In July of 2005, the nature rubber price broke the historical price record in June of 1988 and the price is keep going up. The cruel oil is make the historical highest price and affect the price of synthetic rubber, in the commercial material market of the world is expect that all the material is in a serious shortage, the price maker is the material factory again, and the material factory were reluctant to sell due to anticipation of price keep going up, all of the rubber manufactories can not transfer the increasing cost to the product price it due to decrease the profit of rubber manufactories, for example, there have new cars demand in the market and improve the tire demand but still can not to make up the lose of material cost increase and due to decrease the profit of business.
In Taiwan has not much any publish of rubber, only The Taiwan Rubber Production Association has magazine monthly, because the tire manufactories of Taiwan are limit to the interpreter skill to transfer the professional text books of overseas, almost no people to study the material of tire manufactory _ rubber, and can not to expect the fluctuation of rubber and to hedge the price up. The factors of rubber’s price fluctuation is very complicated, I will introduce the rubber industry and discuss the relationship of supply , demand and price. It is appreciate the International Rubber Study Group supply the data from 1985 to 2005 monthly, at the end of this paper I will list all of factor of rubber price fluctuation as possible as I can, and hope has more people interested about this scope.
封面內頁
簽名頁
授權書iii
中文摘要iv
ABSTRACTvi
誌謝viii
目錄ix
圖目錄xi
表目錄xiii
第一章 緒論1
第一節 研究動機1
第二節 研究目的2
第三節 研究流程及架構4
第二章 相關文獻回顧7
第一節 天然橡膠7
第二節 合成橡膠17
第三節 橡膠現貨、期貨商品市場22
第三章 研究方法41
第一節 前言41
第二節 基本分析架構41
第三節 逐步迴歸選取法42
第四章 實證結果分析47
第一節 基本分析47
第二節 天然橡膠價格複線性迴歸方程式分析56
第五章 結論與建議62
第一節 研究結論62
第二節 研究限制與未來研究方向建議63
附錄71
一、中文部份

1.中國橡膠工業協會
2.中國農耕經濟
3.日商聯貿期貨
4.世界熱帶農業資訊
5.台灣區橡膠工業同業公會
6.群益期貨
7.橡膠工業期刊本(CHINA RUBBER INDUSTRY)

二、英文部份

1. Astlett Rubber ,All about natural rubber,distributor in North America.
2. Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries.
3. Boston University - Center for Polymer Studies - scientific visualization research center developing experimental and computational materials for high school science education. Includes lesson ideas.
4. Bristol University - Polymers at Interfaces Group- Terry Cosgrove's group investigates a wide variety of Polymer and Colloid systems.
5. Boston University - Center for Polymer Studies - scientific visualization research center developing experimental and computational materials for high school science education. Includes lesson ideas.
6. Bristol University - Polymers at Interfaces Group - Terry Cosgrove's group investigates a wide variety of Polymer and Colloid systems.
7. Crude Oil Prices New York mercantile exchange,market price ,graph arranged by Shinichi Kato Office.
8. Commodinet.com E-marketplace of natural rubber.
9. Dutch Information Center of Natural Rubber by Dutch Rubber Foundation.
10.Fraunhofer Institute for Applied Materials Research - works actively on research and development in the fields of near net shape production technologies and bonding technology and polymers.
11.Fraunhofer Institute for Applied Polymer Research, Teltow.
12.Fraunhofer Institute for Applied Materials Research- works actively on research and development in the fields of near net shape production technologies and bonding technology and polymers.
13.Fraunhofer Institute for Applied Polymer Research, Teltow.
14.Geopolymer Institute - Prof. J. Davidovits research in geosynthesis of inorganic molecules, cements, ceramics, fire-resistant composites, waste encapsulation, global warming, and applied archaeology.
15.How to make natural rubber ( plant tour ) by Shinichi Kato Office Co.,,Ltd. Vietnam natural rubber companies.
16.International Rubber Study Group.
17.International Rubber Research and Development Board, All about natural rubber.
18.International Natural Rubber Organization, Operation for natural rubber price stabilization.
19.International Rubber Study Group.
20.Indian Rubber Journal.
21.Indian Natural Rubber Price by Rubber net working. Com.
22.Iran Polymer Institute - offers graduate level research and education in the field of polymer science and technology.
23.Japanese Natural Rubber Prices chartby Yutaka,Japan.
24.Japanese Natural Rubber Daily Prices by Tokyo Commodity Exchange.
25.Malaysian Natural Rubber Daily Prices by Malaysian Rubber Board.
26.Malaysian Rubber Export Council - strong technical back-up from the Malaysian Rubber Board and its constituent bodies, namely, Rubber Research Institute of Malaysia (RRIM), Rubber Technology Centre (RTC), and Tun Abdul Razak Research Centre (TARRC) in the United Kingdom.
27.Makromolekulare Chemie Marburg
28. Mississippi Polymer Institute.
29.Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Mayes Group - polymer physics research.
30.New Jersey Institute of Technology-Polymer Processing Institute (PPI) - independent research group focusing on the development of processing operations.
31.NIHON UNICOM,INC.
32.Rubber Research Institute of Thailand, Plantation of natural rubber and its cost details.
33.Singapore Natural Rubber Price(UScent/kg chart) by Singapore Commodity Exchange.
34.Thailand Natural Rubber Daily Prices by Rubber research Institute of Thailand.
35.The Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM).
36.University of Bristol - Polymers and Colloids Research - information on current projects in polymers and colloids.
37.University of Massachusetts Amherst - Department of Polymer Science and Engineering - includes the Silvio O. Conte National Center for Polymer Research.
38.University of New South Wales - Centre for Applied Polymer Science - research interests span biomaterials, textiles, packaging, and industrial manufacture of resins.
39.University of Southern Mississippi - Polymer Science.
40.University of Sydney - Key Centre for Polymer Colloids.
41.University of Waterloo (Canada) - Institute for Polymer Research- applied and fundamental research in areas that are of vital interest to the plastics, coatings, adhesives, and elastomers industries.
42.University of Wollongong - research in intelligent polymers, materials, and conductive polymers.
43.University of Bristol - Polymers and Colloids Research - information on current projects in polymers and colloids.
44.University of Massachusetts Amherst - Department of Polymer Science and Engineering - includes the Silvio O. Conte National Center for Polymer Research.
45.University of New South Wales - Centre for Applied Polymer Science - research interests span biomaterials, textiles, packaging, and industrial manufacture of resins.
46.University of Southern Mississippi - Polymer Science.
47.University of Sydney - Key Centre for Polymer Colloids.
48.University of Waterloo (Canada) - Institute for Polymer Research - applied and fundamental research in areas that are of vital interest to the plastics, coatings, adhesives, and elastomers industries.
49.www.osamex.com/list/rubber.html.
50.www.econstats.com/fut/xj_sic_ew1.htm -(Jan1993 to Jul2002, End Price, Expire).
51.Web Directory: Polymer Science Internet Directory - resource for students exploring polymer-related Ph.D. programs in universities across the U.S. and Canada.
52.Zinc Market Prices London Metal Exchange prices.
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