身處現今科技發達，環境快速變遷的社會，不確定性也大幅提高，使得無論是個人、企業、社會或國家，在其發展過程中，難免發生各式各樣的危機，為減少危機的發生率，降低可能遭受的損害，危機管理因此日益受到重視。
近年來先後爆發的英商霸菱銀行、美國恩隆案、台灣東帝士等事件，對該些公司均產生重大衝擊，故企業爆發危機應是其面臨向上提升或向下沉淪的轉捩點，因此企業不論規模大小都應做好危機管理；而在危機管理的過程中，Augustine認為，危機預防是控制危機最省錢也是最簡單的方式，但這個步驟通常容易完全被忽略，國內企業界目前雖也日漸重視危機管理，但對於在控制危機方面最為省錢，簡單的方式，也就是有關危機預防方面的工作，其關注程度如何頗值吾人深究，且查國內碩博士論文中，有關危機預防方面的研究仍不多，故本研究將嘗試探討國內企業之危機預防。
另因台北市公車業擔負著大台北地區之交通運輸功能，與一般人民日常生活息息相關，具有公用事業的特性，如其爆發重大危機事件，必將影響廣大民眾之生活，帶來極大之不便甚或損失；本研究即在探討台北市公車業之危機預防；透過對業者A客運公司利害關係人之訪談，分別從風險面、環境面、關係面三個面向，搜尋該公司可能發生的危機類型，並偵測各類型危機發生之徴兆，針對該些危機徵兆試圖研擬一套預防危機發生所可採取的防範措施。
關鍵字：危機，危機徵兆，危機偵測，危機預防，公車業危機

The highly-developed science and technology has greatly resulted in the uncertainty of our current society, which has rapidly changed. During the development process, individual, enterprise, society or country may face various crisis. To decrease the occurrence of crisis and to avoid the possible loss, people have therefore paid much attention to crisis management.
Recently, several severe business scandal happening at home and abroad, such scandal has brought significant impact on the related companies. As far as an enterprise is concerned, the occurrence of crisis is the turning point for business being upward or downward. Thus, crisis management should be duly conducted despite the scale of the enterprise. Augustine thought that crisis prevention is the simplest step with the least money to be spent to control the crisis. However, this step is usually ignored. Currently, although the domestic enterprise has gradually put much emphasis on crisis management, the measures of doing crisis prevention seem not to be considered or taken. In reviewing the domestic master or doctoral thesis, little study of crisis prevention was found. This study is to try to explore the crisis prevention of a domestic enterprise.
Taipei Bus Industry, a public utility, which has the responsibility for the transportation for people living in Taipei metropolitan area, is closely linked to the people’s daily life. In case of the occurrence of significant crisis, the normal life of people in Taipei will be severely affected, and great loss and inconvenience will arise. This study is to explore the crisis prevention of Taipei Bus Industry. To interview the stakeholders of A Bus Company through three aspects such as risk, environment and relationship, the crisis premonition of A Bus Company or warning may be detected. To aim at the various types of crisis premonition, a set of adoptable crisis prevention measures is therefore studied and contemplated.
The highly-developed science and technology has greatly resulted in the uncertainty of our current society, which has rapidly changed. During the development process, individual, enterprise, society or country may face various crisis. To decrease the occurrence of crisis and to avoid the possible loss, people have therefore paid much attention to crisis management.
Recently, several severe business scandal happening at home and abroad, such scandal has brought significant impact on the related companies. As far as an enterprise is concerned, the occurrence of crisis is the turning point for business being upward or downward. Thus, crisis management should be duly conducted despite the scale of the enterprise. Augustine thought that crisis prevention is the simplest step with the least money to be spent to control the crisis. However, this step is usually ignored. Currently, although the domestic enterprise has gradually put much emphasis on crisis management, the measures of doing crisis prevention seem not to be considered or taken. In reviewing the domestic master or doctoral thesis, little study of crisis prevention was found. This study is to try to explore the crisis prevention of a domestic enterprise.
Taipei Bus Industry, a public utility, which has the responsibility for the transportation for people living in Taipei metropolitan area, is closely linked to the people’s daily life. In case of the occurrence of significant crisis, the normal life of people in Taipei will be severely affected, and great loss and inconvenience will arise. This study is to explore the crisis prevention of Taipei Bus Industry. To interview the stakeholders of A Bus Company through three aspects such as risk, environment and relationship, the crisis premonition of A Bus Company or warning may be detected. To aim at the various types of crisis premonition, a set of adoptable crisis prevention measures is therefore studied and contemplated.
Key Words : crisis,crisis prevention,crisis premonition,

第一章緒論:第一節研究背景與動機第二節研究目的第三節研究範圍與流程
第二章文獻探討:第一節危機與台北市公車業者危機類型第二節危機管理第三節危機偵測與預防
第三章研究設計:第一節研究方法第二節資料收集第三節訪談對象與研究前分析框架
第四章訪談資料分析:第一節危機的類型第二節風險面的危機徵兆與預防第三節環境面的危機徵兆與預防第四節關係面的危機徵兆與預防
第五章研究結論與建議:第一節研究發現第二節建議

一、中文部份
1.王文科（1995）。教育研究法。台北：五南圖書出版（股）公司。
2.王美淑（1999）。企業危機處理個案研究。國立中山大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。
3.朱延智（2000）。危機處理的理論與實務。台北：幼獅文化事業（股）公司。
4.朱延智（2003）。企業危機管理。台北：五南圖書出版（股）公司。
5.朱愛群（2003）。危機管理：解讀災難謎咒。台北：五南圖書出版（股）公司。
6.李淳（1999）。電力自由化立法規範之研究。國立中正大學法律研究所碩士論文。
7.邱強（2001）。危機處理聖經。台北：天下文化。
8.邱毅（1999）。危機管理。台北：中華徵信所。
9.吳佩玲 譯（2001）。Augustine, Norman R. 原著。危機管理。台北：瑱下遠見出版（股）公司。
10.呉宜蓁（1998）。議題管理－企業公關的新興課題。台北：正中書局。
11.呉宜蓁（2002）。危機傳播－公共關係與語藝觀點的理論與實證。台北：五南圖書出版（股）公司。
12.呉俊鴻（2001）。建構台灣地區整合性災害防救體制之研究－以總體戰略理論觀點。淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所碩士論文。
13.呉芝儀、李奉儒 譯（1995）。Patton .R .原著。質性研究。台北：
14.林素蘭（2001）。危機管理－以A航空公司機師罷工為例。國立中正大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。
15.姚惠忠（2004）。公關基本教練。台北：威肯公關顧問公司。
16.徐宗國（1997）。質性研究概論，台北：巨流圖書公司。
17.徐志豪（2004）。網路危機公關策略之探討。大葉大學工業關係學系碩士班碩士論文。
18.徐瑞陽（2004）。壽險業行銷危機預防與管理機制之研究。.元智大學管理研究所碩士論文
19.孫本初（1996）。危機管理策略之探討。人事月刊。22，6，130，P17-29
20.陳儀、邱天欣 譯（2002）。Jeffery R.Caponigro原著。危機管理－擬定應變計畫 化危機為轉機的企業致勝之道。台北：美商麥格羅∙希爾國際（股）公司台灣分公司。
21.郭書祺（2001）。企業運用網路公關之研究初探－從電腦中介傳播談起。國立交通大學傳播所碩士論文、
22.詹中原（2004）。危機管理：理論架構。台北：聯經出版事業（股）公司。
23.蔡東益（2003）。企業危機管理機制建立之研究。國立成功大學工業管理科學專班碩士論文。
24.齊力（2005）。質性研究方法概論。嘉義：南華大學教育社會研究所。
25.歐振文（2004）。形象修護策略與危機情境－國軍危機傳播個案研究。世新大學傳播研究所碩士論文。
26.霍士富（1996）。危機管理與公關運作－理論‧實務與事例。台北：超越企管顧問（股）公司。
27.盧興義（2004）。危機管理在資訊安全上之研究－以防範「組織內部人員不當竊取」為例。大葉大學事業經營研究所碩士班碩士論文。
28.韓培爾，1998。社會科學方法論：量化與質化Q＆A，台北：風雲論
29.韓應寧 譯（1987）。Fink Steven原著。危機管理。台北：天下文化。
30.謝青宏（2004）。政府危機傳播之研究－以台北市政府SARS危機傳播為例。世新大學傳播研究所碩士論文
31.首都入主大有 躍公車業龍頭（2006，6月22日）。聯合報，C2版。
32.94年台北市交通統計年報。台北市政府交通局，p43。
二、英文部分
1.Augustine,N.R.（1995）.Managing the crisis you tried to prevent. Harvard Business Review,73（6）.
2.Booth,Simon.A.（1993）.Crisis Management Strategy：Competition and Change in Modern Enterprises,London,New York：Routledge.
3.Center, Allen.H. & Jackson, Patrick.（2003），Public Relations Practices ：Managerial Case Studies and Problems ，New Jersey：Prentice－Hall.
4.Coombs,W.T.（1999）.Ongoing crisis communication：Planning，managing，and responding,CA：Sage
5.Fink,Steven.（1986） Crisis Management：Planning for Inevitable. New York：American Management Association.
6.Fearn-Banks, Kathleen（2001）.Crisis Communication：A Review of Some Best Practices. In Heath,R.L.（ED.）Handbook of Public Relations. CA：Sage.
7.Milburn,Thomas W.（1972）.The Management of Crisis,in Charles F.Hermann ed.International Crisis：Insight from Behavioral Research, free press.
8.Mitroff,I.I. ,（1988）.Crisis management：Cutting through the confusion . Sloan Management Review.
9.Minichiello V.,Aroni R.,Timewell E.,& Alexander L.（1995）.In-depth Interview,Second Edition.South Melbourne：Longman.
10.Pearson,Christine M. & Judith A.Clair（1998）.Reframing Crisis Management, Academy of Management Review ,
11.Wilcox,D.L. & Ault,P.H. & Agee,W.K. & Cameron,G.T.（2000）. Pulic Relations－Strategies and tactics（6th ed ），New York：Addison-Wesley Educational Publishers Inc .