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研究生:曾俋翰
研究生(外文):yi-han zeng
論文名稱:通貨膨脹指標,勞動內升與經常帳
論文名稱(外文):Inflation Targeting,Endogenous Labor and Current Account
指導教授:張文雅張文雅引用關係
指導教授(外文):WEN-YA CHANG
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:輔仁大學
系所名稱:經濟學研究所
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:經濟學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2007
畢業學年度:95
語文別:中文
論文頁數:58
中文關鍵詞:勞動內生 交易付現 經常帳
外文關鍵詞:endogenous laborcash in advancecurrent account
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本文以Mansoorian and Mohsin (2006)模型為基礎,該模型的特色為將消費具有交易付現的方式引進於經濟體系、勞動內生、引進國外債券的持有與加入投資具有調整成本。在這個架構之下,我們重新檢視央行實施未預料到暫時性與恆常性的通貨膨脹指標調升,對總體經濟變數的影響,從而驗證Mansoorian and Mohsin (2006)的結論是否成立?
研究顯示,Mansoorian and Mohsin (2006)的結論是否成立端視消費與勞動彼此間的關係,以及國外債券影子價格的調整而定。如果消費與勞動彼此獨立時,或是消費與勞動彼此替代時,未預料到暫時性與恆常性的通貨膨脹指標調升均導致長期均衡的資本存量耗損,而經常帳產生順差,之後導致國外債券存量的累積,這和Mansoorian and Mohsin (2006)的結論相同,但可以發現動態調整過程的結果係與Mansoorian and Mohsin (2006)有明顯地不同。
如果消費與勞動彼此互補且國外債券的影子價格呈現增加時,未預料到暫時性的通貨膨脹指標調升將導致長期均衡的資本存量累積,而經常帳逆差,之後導致國外債券存量的耗損,這和Mansoorian and Mohsin (2006)的結論迥然相異。
Based on Mansoorian and Mohsin (2006), we re-examine the effects of the unanticipated permanent or temporary increase in inflation targeting on macroeconomic variables and evaluate the robustness of Mansoorian and Mohsin’s (2006) results.
The analytical outcomes show that whether or not Mansoorian and Mohsin’s (2006) results are tenable depends on the relationship between consumption and labor in the utility function and endogenous adjustment in the shadow value of foreign bonds. If consumption and labor are separable or Edgeworth substitute, an unanticipated permanent or temporary increase in inflation targeting will lead to capital decumulation, current-account surplus and foreign bonds accumulation in the lone run. These results are the same as Mansoorian and Mohsin (2006), but we find that the result of transitional dynamics stands in sharp contrast with Mansoorian and Mohsin (2006).
If consumption and labor are Edgeworth complement and the shadow value of foreign bonds increases, an unanticipated temporary increase in inflation targeting will lead to capital accumulation, current-account deficit and foreign bonds decumulation in the lone run. These results stand in sharp contrast with Mansoorian and Mohsin (2006).
第一章 緒論…………………………………………………………………… 1
第一節 研究動機與目的…………………………………………………… 1
第二節 論文架構…………………………………………………………… 3

第二章 理論模型……………………………………………………………… 4
第一節 基本模型…………………………………………………………… 4
第二節 體系的動態特質…………………………………………………… 10
附圖一 ………………………………………………………………………… 19

第三章 通貨膨脹指標的調升………………………………………………… 20
附圖二 ………………………………………………………………………… 31
附圖三 ………………………………………..……………………………… 38
附圖四 ………………………………………………………………………… 44
附圖五 ………………………………………………………………………… 49

第四章 結論…………………………………………………..……………… 50

附錄一 ……………………………………………………………..………… 52
附錄二 ………………………………………………………………………… 54
附錄三 ………………………………………………………………………… 55
附錄四 ………………………………………………………………………… 56
參考文獻 ………………………………………………………………………… 57
一、

中文部份:

張文雅、賴景昌, 1990,「雙元匯率的制度崩潰」,《經濟論文》, 第十八卷第一期, 頁 37-82。

賴景昌、張文雅, 1988,「匯率制度變遷與物價調整方式」,《經濟論文叢刊》, 第十六輯第四期, 頁 543-563。

賴景昌、張文雅, 1990,「預料到的干擾與錯向調整:幾何圖形的分析」,《人文及社會科學集刊》, 第三卷第一期, 頁 107-123。

二、

英文部份:

Agénor, P. R. and P. Montiel, 1996, Development Macroeconomics. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Agénor, P. R., 2000, “Monetary Policy under Flexible Exchange Rate: An Introduction to Inflation Targeting,” The World Bank Washington DC 20433.

Calvo, G. A., 1981, “Devaluation: Levels versus Rates,” Journal of International Economics 11, pp. 165-172.

Gandolfo, G., 1980, Economic Dynamics: Methods and Models, Amsterdam: NorthHolland.

Mishkin, F. S., 2000, “Inflation Targeting in Emerging-Market Countries,” American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 90 , pp.105-109.

Mansoorian, A. and M. Mohsin, 2004, “Monetary Policy in a Cash-in-Advance Economy: Employment, Capital Accumulation, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates,” Canadian Journal of Economics 37 , pp. 336-352.

Mansoorian, A. and M. Mohsin, 2006, “On the Employment, Investment and Current Account Effects of Inflation,” Journal of International Economics 70, pp. 296-313.

Obstfeld, M., 1981, “Capital Mobility and Devaluation in an Optimizing Model with Rational Expectations,” American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 71, pp. 217-221.

Sidrauski, M., 1967, “Rational Choice and Patterns of Growth in a Monetary Economy,”American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 57, pp. 534-544.

Stockman, A. C., 1981, “Anticipated Inflation and the Capital Stock in a cash-in-Advance Economy,” Journal of Monetary Economics 8, pp. 387-393.

Sen, P. and S. J. Turnovsky, 1989, “Deterioration of the Terms of Trade and Capital Accumulation: A Re-examination of the Lausen-Metzler Effect,” Journal of International Economics 26, pp. 227-250.

Turnovsky, S. J., 1997, International Macroeconomic Dynamics. Cambridge: MIT Press.

Uzawa, H., 1968, “Time preference,the consumption function, and optimal asset holdings, ”In J.N. Wolfe (ed.),Capital and Growth: Papers in Honour of Sir John Hick. Chicago:Aldine.
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