層級分析法中對於評估者意見的整合有兩種不同的程序，一為事前整合，一為事後整合；而事前整合的方法中則可以選擇幾何平均數法或算術平均數法。本文以數據模擬的方式，探討幾何平均數法及算術平均數法所產生權重之差異，本文研究結果發現，幾何平均數法或算術平均數法對權重的影響並不顯著，反而是評估者意見的離散程度對權重有顯著的影響。因此，本文以統計中集群分析之觀點出發，並發展了以模糊集群演算法為基礎的AHP模糊集群演算法，此方法可以將評估者意見的集群型態找出，進而求得權重值。為暸解在真實情境不同平均數在實際數據中之運用情形，本文以政府某機關之資料為例，計算該機關委外計畫執行成效管理中的指標權重，並且使用這些資料為本文所發展方法之實例演算依據。

There are two ways for aggregation of experts’ opinion in AHP, one is the aggregation of individual judgments (AIJ) and the other is the aggregation of individual priorities (AIP). In AIJ, geometrics and arithmetic mean are two popular way to aggregate the experts’ opinion, but which method is better; there is no conclusion in the references. From the result of simulation, there is no significant difference between the weights that generated from these two methods, but experts’ opinion of coincides or not will be the key point. In this study, the penalty fuzzy c-means were applied to generate AHP fuzzy cluster algorithm in for solving the problem when experts’ opinions are not coincides. In order to demonstrate the process of algorithm, the data from government sponsored research from a department in Taiwan are used.

目 錄
頁次
中文摘要………………………………………………………………I

英文摘要……………………………………………………………II

目錄……………………………………………………………………III

圖目錄…………………………………………………………………V

表目錄…………………………………………………………………VI


第一章 緒論……………………..……………………….………………….1
1.1 研究背景與動機…………...……………………….…………………1
1.2 研究問題與目的………..…………………………….………………2
1.3 研究限制…..………….……………………………….………………3
1.4 論文結構………...………………………………….…………………3
第二章 文獻探討…………………..………………………………………..4
2.1 層級分析法………..…………………………..………………………4
2.2 模糊集群分析……………..…………………………………………..6
2.3 政府某機關委外計畫執行成效評估模式……………...…………….7
第三章 研究設計…………………………..………………………………14
3.1 研究流程………………………..……………………………………14
3.2 數據模擬…………………………………………………………….14
3.3 運用模糊集群法於AHP群體決策……………..………………….17
3.4 問卷設計……………………………………..………………………23
第四章 結果分析……………………………...……………………………29
4.1 數據模擬結果………………………..………………………………29
4.1.1 評估者意見呈現常態分配………..……………………………29
4.1.2 評估者意見呈現均勻分配…………..…………………………36
4.2 政府委外計畫成效評估之AHP權重…………..…………………43
4.2.1 評估者之AHP權重…….…..…………………………………..44
4.2.2 評選模擬結果………………...…………….………………….54
4.3 模糊集群成對比較矩陣之整合……..…………………..…………57
第五章 結論與建議……………………..…………………………………61
5.1 結論…..………..……………………………………………………61
5.2 後續研究建議…………..…...……………………………………….62
參考文獻……………………..………………………………………………63
附錄…………………………….……………………………………………67
博士候選人簡歷……………………………………………………………...78

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二、中文部分
1. 行政院，行政院所屬各機關委外研究計畫管理辦法，民國88年。
2.鄧振源，計畫評估—方法與應用，基隆市：海洋大學運籌規劃與管理研究中心，民國91年。