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研究生:龔永香
論文名稱:客觀標準化不動產估價之可行性分析─市場比較法應用於大量估價
論文名稱(外文):The Feasibility Analysis of the Objective Standardized Real Estate Appraisal─The Market Comparative Approach Applies to Automated Valuation Methods
指導教授:張金鶚張金鶚引用關係
指導教授(外文):Chang, Chin-Oh
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立政治大學
系所名稱:地政研究所
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:公共行政學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2007
畢業學年度:95
語文別:中文
論文頁數:51
中文關鍵詞:不動產估價市場比較法比較標的選取大量估價
外文關鍵詞:real estate appraisalmarket comparative approachselecting comparative subjectmass appraisal
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:13
  • 點閱點閱:696
  • 評分評分:
  • 下載下載:0
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:2
市場比較法估價過程需要經比較、分析及調整三階段,而估價師於個別估價應用中因缺乏標準化依據,造成估價過程常被質疑過於主觀且偏重經驗法則,導致估價結果產生因人而異現象。基於此本研究乃建立大量估價模型,運用估價師進行市場比較法行為邏輯,在選取比較案例階段採用明科斯基距離概念,並結合特徵價格理論,建立大量樣本的客觀標準化估價模型。藉由此模型分析,估價師不需要主觀預測,可改善過去估價結果不一致情形,並達到大量估價目的。
透過隨機抽樣的重覆實驗,實證結果發現,以模型的平均百分比預測誤差與命中率比較,整體而言未劃分次市場估價模型皆較劃分次市場準確,且其穩定度亦較高,而劃分次市場較不準確的原因,在於舊市區的表現不穩定,與市郊區的估值表現較差所致。經本研究結果,不論劃分次市場與否,標準化大量估價模型大致上均達到研究預設水準,然劃分次市場模型雖有時較準確但未優於未分區模型甚多,顯示適當劃分次市場可提高準確度,但資料太少時,劃分次市場可能產生統計偏誤問題。
The process of the market comparative approach includes three stages:comparing ,analyzing and adjusting. Real estate appraisers lack the standardized basis in the individual appraisal application, so they are often challenged by subjectivity and stressing experience, which leads to the phenomenon that appraisal results are always different from person to person. Based on this, our research establishes the automated valuation methods. By applying the appraisers’ behavior in market comparative approach, we use minkowski metric in selecting comparative subject, and associate with hedonic price theory to establish objective standardized real estate appraisal model. By using this model, the appraisers can avoid subjective forecasting, reduce inconsistency, and therefore achieve the goal of mass appraisal.
Through the repetition experiment of random sampling, we compare MAPE and Hit-rate between models. The result shows that non-delimited markets are more accurate and stable than delimited markets. The reason for this is the instability caused by older district of the city and bad performance in the suburban area. After these findings, no matter delimited market or not, the standardized mass appraisal model achieved the research standard we had set in advance. Sometimes the model of delimited market is more accurate, though not by a significant amount, it shows that higher accuracy can be expected through adequate market segmentation, but will lead to bias when lack of datum.
第一章 緒論…………………………………………………………………1
第一節 研究動機與問題……………………………………………………2
第二節 研究方法與範圍……………………………………………………4
第三節 論文架構與流程……………………………………………………5
第二章 理論與文獻回顧……………………………………………………6
第一節 市場比較法之內涵…………………………………………………6
第二節 市場比較法相關研究方法…………………………………………10
第三節 大量估價與個別估價之連結………………………………………16
第四節 小結…………………………………………………………………17
第三章 實證方法與研究設計………………………………………………18
第一節 實證方法……………………………………………………………18
第二節 資料與研究設計……………………………………………………21
第四章 實證分析……………………………………………………………25
第一節 實證模型設定………………………………………………………25
第二節 變數選取說明………………………………………………………26
第三節 特徵價格分析………………………………………………………29
第四節 可比較標的選取階段………………………………………………34
第五節 價格調整階段之各屬性調整情況…………………………………36
第六節 標準化市場比較法的估值表現─隨機抽樣一次…………………38
第七節 標準化市場比較法的隨機抽樣重覆實驗估值表現………………40
第五章 結論與建議…………………………………………………………45
第一節 結論…………………………………………………………………45
第二節 後續建議……………………………………………………………47
參考文獻…………………………………………………………………….48
附錄………………………………………………………………………….51
中文參考文獻
1. 台灣房地產景氣動向季報第七卷第四期,內政部建築研究所
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3. 林英彥,2003,不動產估價理論第九版,文笙書局
4. 林秋瑾、楊宗憲、張金鶚,1996,住宅價格指數之研究-以台北市為例,住宅學報,第4期,pp1-30。
5. 林祖嘉,1992,台灣地區房租與房價關係之研究,台灣銀行季刊,43(1),pp279-312。
6. 黃淑惠,2000,改進地價稅稅基的評估以廣增都市建設的財源-逼近調整法之應用,都市與計劃,第27卷3期,297-317
7. 黃淑惠,2000,地價指數編制方法及應用結果之研究,台中技術學院學報,第1期,pp 261-280。
8. 張小燕,2005,從行為觀點檢視不動產估價中的市場比較法,國立台北大學不動產與城鄉環境學系碩士論文
9. 張金鶚、劉秀玲,1993,房地產品質、價格與消費者物價指數之探討,國立政治大學學報,第67期,pp369-400。
10. 張梅英、施昱年,2004,台灣大量估價問題分析及其改進方法之研究,土地問題研究季刊,第3卷3期,89-105
11. 廖咸興、張芳玲,1997,不動產評價模式特徵價格法與逼近調整法之比較,住宅學報,5:17-35
12. 廖英志,2005,最近鄰似法於不動產估價上之應用,國立台北大學不動產與城鄉環境學系碩士論文

英文參考文獻
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24. Vandell, K. D. (1991), “Optimal Comparable Selection and Weighting in Real Property Valuation,” Journal of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, 19(2):213-239.
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