臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究以Chen-Chie（Chen and Chie, 2007）所設計的代理人基模型，探討所得分配對彩券銷售額的影響。這篇論文考量了兩種彩券參與函數，一種是採用模糊推論的方法來呈現代理人購買彩券的決定，在此方式下，並未將可能中奬的期望效果納入。另一種則是以預期效用理論為主軸，並且加入主觀認知的中獎機率。除了彩券參與度外，根據Chen and Chie (2007)的設計，還考慮到兩個購買彩券經驗的觀點，分別是自我意識選號及個體間的獨立性。模型中代理人參數並未固定，取而代之的，是讓代理人具有自動產生參數的能力，所有行為的參數是以遺傳演算法取得其適應性。當代理人進行遺傳演算（社會學習）時，代理人對策略的學習會依照區間的設定，進一步作區域性社會學習及全域社會學習。本論文彙集了上述設計，提供了四種彩券市場行為模型，配合不同的所得分配進行模擬，並且利用統計檢定比較其統計量的變化，分析所得分配對彩券銷售額的影響。

This study addresses the impact of income distribution on lottery sales using an agent-based modeling approach, specifically, the Chen-Chie model (Chen and Chie, 2007). Two kinds of lottery participation function are considered in this thesis. One is more heuristic and does not require agents’ expectations of the odds. In this case, we use the fuzzy inference system to represent agents’ heuristics. The other explicitly takes agents’ expectations of the odds into account, and a formal expected utility maximization approach is taken. In addition to lottery participation, following Chen and Chie (2007), we also consider two additional empirical aspects of lottery plays, namely, conscious selection and state-dependent utilities. The parameters of agents are not fixed; instead, they are autonomous and all behavioral parameters are adaptive via genetic algorithms. While the population genetic algorithms (social learning) are applied, an idea of nearest neighbors learning is used to further distinguish the global social learning from the local social learning. These setups together give us four behavioral models of lottery markets. We then simulate each of these four markets with different income distribution, and then compare their statistic behavior with statistical test to examine the overall effect of income distribution to lottery sales.

1 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景及動機................................1
1.1.1 為何政府得不到最適的彩券政策？............1
1.1.2 所得分配在彩券發行政策中可能占有的重要地位..3
1.2 研究方法及研究目的.............................4
1.3 研究限制......................................4
1.4 本文架構......................................6
2 理論基礎與文獻回顧 7
2.1 遺傳演算的代理人基研究方法理論基礎...............7
2.2 公益彩券文獻探討...............................9
2.2.1 人們購買彩券的理由.......................10
2.2.2 最適的彩券稅率...........................13
2.2.3 同一地區發行兩種彩券是互補效果還是替代效果？.14
2.2.4 彩券上癮者的研究.........................15
2.2.5 彩券市場總體分析.........................16
2.3 所得分配與彩券相關文獻..........................16
3 台灣彩券市場及所得分配 19
3.1 台灣彩券市場分析...............................19
3.2 台灣所得分配情形...............................26
4 人工彩券市場及代理人之設計 30
4.1 模型平台設計..................................30
4.1.1 彩券市場環境設計.........................30
4.1.2 彩券購買者主要認知行為的擷取..............31
4.1.3 代理人工程..............................33
4.1.3.1 代理人結構......................33
4.1.3.2 基因編碼方式....................34
4.1.3.3 彩券市場參與度..................34
4.1.3.3.1 版本一（模糊理論）......35
4.1.3.3.2 版本二（直覺式期望報酬）.37
4.1.3.4 自我意識選號.....................40
4.1.3.5 個體與個體間的獨立性..............40
4.1.3.6 基因之整體設計...................41
4.1.4 挑選染色體的方式.........................41
4.1.5 代理人的學習方式.........................42
4.1.6 代理人的演化方式.........................43
4.2 實驗設計......................................45
4.3 彩券市場行為模擬...............................47
5 實驗結果 52
5.1 真實與模擬之彩券市場銷售額分析...................52
5.1.1 真實彩券市場銷售額與獎金順移檢定分析........52
5.1.2 遺傳演算法模擬彩券市場銷售額與獎金順移檢定分析.54
5.2 所得分配對彩券銷售額影響之檢定分析................65
5.3 各個所得分配下之彩券市場總體現象分析..............69
5.3.1 彩券市場銷售額...........................69
5.3.2 彩券市場之稅率與稅收......................78
5.3.3 平均彩券支出比例..........................86
6 結論與建議 . 93
參考文獻
附錄

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英文部分
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網頁部分
1. 行政院主計處網頁http://www.dgbas.gov.tw，下載日期2006年3月5日.
2.行政院主計處中部辦公室台灣地區家庭收支調查網頁 http://fies2.tpg.gov.tw/doc/result/93/211/Year03.doc，下載日期2006年3月2日.
3. 國立陽明大學網頁http://www.dls.ym.edu.tw/life.htm，下載日期 2006年10月1日.




















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bibliography
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英文部分
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