臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究旨在由傳統財務指標及公司治理角度分析近年來我國因財務報表舞弊遭一審判決有罪之公司發生的舞弊警訊(Red Flags)，建立財務報表舞弊預警模型，作為會計師執行舞弊偵測時的參考，降低因查核舞弊所產生的審計失敗，並可作為主管機關實質審查選案標準及投資人選擇投資標的之參考。
本文以民國85年至95年因財務報表舞弊遭法院一審判決有罪之27家公司為樣本，分別使用財務及公司治理變數建立財務報表舞弊預警模型，再以Cascade Logistic迴歸分析結合財務及公司治理模型，檢視Cascadev Logistic模型的正確判別率。實證結果顯示，財務變數中舞弊當期應付帳款成長率、舞弊當期存貨成長率、應收帳款收現天數對前期同一比率與財務報表舞弊呈顯著正相關；舞弊當期資產報酬率對前期同一比率、舞弊當期銷貨成長率與財務報表舞弊呈顯著負相關。公司治理變數中董監持股、控制持股、外部個人監事席次與財務報表舞弊顯著負相關；財報重編次數呈顯著正相關，良善的公司治理機制與財務舞弊具負向關連性。而整合的Cascade Logistic模型，財務及公司治理變數均與財務報表舞弊呈顯著相關，且均具增額解釋。

Presented are a profile of a sample of fraud companies in Taiwan from 1996 to 2006, their financial and corporate governance characteristics, suggested fincial and corporate governance logistic models for detecting fraud and a final combine cascade logistic model.
The results suggest both systematic relationships between the probability of fraud and financial and corporate governance characteristic variables. This evidence is consistent with the usefulness of accounting data in detecting fraud and the effectiveness of proper corporate governance in protecting fraud happening. Because the cascade logistic model correctly identifies approximately 90% of the companies involved or not invleved in fraud, the model can be a useful screening device for auditors to detect fraud, low down the propobility of audit failure and the cost of lawsuit due to fraud.

第壹章 緒論...............................................1
第一節 研究動機與目的......................................1
第二節 研究問題與範圍......................................2
第三節 研究貢獻...........................................3
第四節 研究流程及架構......................................5
第貳章 文獻探討...........................................6
第一節 舞弊定義...........................................6
第二節 會計師查核舞弊之責任................................9
第三節 財務報表舞弊預警模型................................10
第四節 公司治理與財務報表舞弊..............................13
第五節 統計及非統計模型...................................17
第參章 研究設計與方法.....................................23
第一節 樣本選取與資料來源 .................................23
第二節 研究變數選取.......................................24
第三節 研究設計...........................................25
第肆章 實證結果與分析.....................................29
第一節 舞弊公司與正常公司之比較............................29
第二節 Logistic迴歸分析..................................39
第三節 Cascade Logistic迴歸分析..........................46
第伍章 結論及建議........................................48
附錄一 樣本來源............................................51
附錄二 台灣經濟新報社公司治理資料庫變數一覽表..................58
附錄三 依相關係數分析及個別Logistic迴歸分析選取公司治理變數一覽表62
參考文獻...................................................63

林裕雄，1996，列入全額交割股上市公司盈餘管理之實證研究，國立中央大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。
林順興，2003，企業財務危機預警模式之研究-Logit分析、區別分析與Cox模式之比較，輔仁大學管理學研究所碩士論文。
周百隆、郭和益，2006，財務風險評估與異常報酬之研究-中國上市公司之實證研究，企業管理學報，69:1-39。
洪櫻芬，1995，財務困難公司盈餘管理之實證研究，國立中興大學會計學研究所碩士論文。
陳碧滋，2000，我國上市公司股價行為與董監因素關聯性之探討，國立台灣大學會計學研究所碩士論文。
郭志安，1996，以COX模型建立財務危機預警模式，逢甲大學統計與精算研究所碩士論文。
馮麗華，1998，運用混沌理論預測企業財務危機，輔仁大學金融研究所碩士論文。
徐淑芬，1999，台灣上市公司財務危機預警模式之建立-應用多變量CUSUM時間序列分析，國立東華大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。
張正忠，2000，台灣上市公司財務危機預警模式之建立-瀑布羅吉斯模式之應用，國立交通大學經營管理研究所碩士論文。
許伯彥，2003，財務報表舞弊風險評量模式研究，國立台灣大學會計研究所碩士論文。
葉容真，2001，財務危機企業之盈餘管理 : 以台灣上市公司為例，國防管理學院資源管理研究所碩士論文。
潘玉葉，1990，台灣股票上市公司財務危機預警分析，淡江大學管理科學研究所博士論文。
鄧志豪，2000，以分類樣本偵測替雷股¬-新財務危機預警模型，國立政治大學金融研究所碩士論文。
嚴文筆，2004，從內部控制觀點建構舞弊訴訟預警模型，國立中正大學會計與資訊科技研究所碩士論文。
龔志明，2000，財務危機預警模型之跨期性研究，國立中山大學財務管理研究所碩士論文。
Abbott, L. J. 2000. The Effects of Audit Committee Activity and Independence on Corporate Fraud. Managerial Finance 26:55-67.
Altman, E. I., 1968. Financial Rations Discriminate Analysis and Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy. Journal of Finance 4:589-609.
Beasley, M. S., 1996. An Empirical Analysis of the Relation Between the Boasd of Director Composition and Financial Statement Fraud. The Accounting Review 71(4):443-465.
Beasley, M. S., V. C. Joseph and Dana R.H. 2001. Prevention and detection of financial statement fraud. Internal Auditing 16 (3):8.
Beaver, W. H. 1966. Financial Rations as predictors of failure, Empirical research in Accounting: Selected Study. Journal of Accounting Research 4: 77-111.
Bell, T. B., S. Szykowny and J. J. Willingham. 1991. Assessing the Likelihood of Fraudulent Financial Reporting: A Cascaded Logit Approach. Working paper, KPMG LLP.
Bell, T. amd W. r. Knechel. 1994. Empirical analysis of errors discovered in audits of property and casualty insurers. Auditing: A journal of Pratice & Theory (Spring):84-100.
Bell, T. B., J. V. Hensen, J. B. McDonald and W. F. Jr. Messier. 1996. A Generalized Qualitative-Response Model and the Analysis of Management Fraud. Management Science 42 (7): 1022-1032.
Bell, T. B. and J. V. Carcello. 2000. A Decision Aid for Assessing the Likelihood of Fraudulent Financial Reporting. Auditing: A Journal of Practice & Theory 19 (1): 169-185.
Beneish, M. D. 1999. The Detection of Earnings Manipulation. Financial Analysts Journal 24:24-36
Bovenzi, J. F., J. A. Marino and F. E. Mcfadden. 1983. Commerical BankFailure Prediction Models. Economic Review Nov.: 14-26.
Carcello, J. V. and T. L. Neal. 2000. Audit Committee Composition and Auditor Reporting. The Accounting Review 75(4):453-467.
Carcello, J. V. and T. L. Neal. 2003. Audit Committee Characteristics and Auditor Dismissals following ”New” Going-Concern Rports. The Accounting Review 78(1):95-117.
Collins, R. A. and R. D. Green. 1982. Statistical methods for bankruptcy forecasting. Journal of Economics and Business 34(4): 349-354.
Comiskey E. E. and Mulford C. W. Guide to Financial reporting and Analysis. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
DeAngelo, L. E. 1986. Accounting Numbers as Market Valuation Substitute: A Study of Management Buyouts of Public Stockholders. The Accounting Review 61: 400-420.
Dechow, P. M., R. G. Sloan and A. P. Sweeney. 1996. Cause and Consequences of Earnings Manipulation: An Analysis of Firms Subject to Enforcement Actions by the SEC. Contemporary Accounting Research 13 (1): 1-36.
Etti, G. B., T. W. Sager and R. C. Witt. 1999. Industry segmentation and predictor motifs for solvency analysis of the life/health insurance industry. Journal of Risk and Insurance 66(1):99-124.
Farber, D. B. 2005. Restoring Trust after Fraud: Does Corporate Governance Matter? The Accouning Review 80(2):539-561.
Foreman, R. D. 2003. A logistic analysis of bankruptcy within the US local telecommunications industry. Journal of Economics and Business 5(2): 135-166.
Gentry, J. A., P. Newbold and D. T. Whitford. 1987. Funds flow components, financial rations and bankruptcy. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting 14(4): 595-606.
Healy, P. M. 1985. The Effect of Bonus Schemes on Accounting Decisions. Journal of Accounting and Economics 7: 85-107.
Jones, Jennifer J. 1991. Earning Management During Import Relief Investigation. Journal of Accounting Research 29 (2): 193-228.
Koh, H. and S. Tan. 1999. A Neural Network Approach to the Prediction of Going Concern Status Accounting and Business Research 21:211-216.
Lane, W. R. and J. W. Wansley. 1986. An Application of Cox Proportional Hazards Model to Bank Failure. Journal of Banking and Finance 10:511-531.
Lee, S. H. and J. L. Urrutia. 1996. Analysis and prediction of Insolvency the Property-Liaility Insurance Industry: a Comparsion o fLogit and Hazard Models The Journal of Risk and insurance 63:121-130.
Lindsay, D. H. and A. Campbell. 1996. A Chaos Approach to Bankruptcy Prediction Journal of Applied Business Research 12:1-9.
Loebbecke. J. K. and J. J. Willingham. 1988. Review of SEC Accounting and Auditing Enforcement Releases. Working paper. Utah University.
Loebbecke, J. K., M. M. Ening and J. J. Willingham. 1989. Auditor’s Experience with Material Irregularities: Frequency, Nature and Detectability. Auditing: A Journal of Practice & Theory 9 (1): 1-28.
Martin, D. 1977. Early warning of banking failure. Journal of Banking and Finance 3:249-276.
Ohlson, J. A. 1980. Financial ratios and the probabilistic prediction of bankruptcy. Journal of Accounting Research 18(1):109-131.
Platt, H. D. and M. B. Platt. 2002. Predicting Corporate Financial Distress: Reflections on Choice-Based Sample Bias. Journal of Economics and Finance 26(2): 184-199.
Richardson, S. A., R. G. Sloan, M. T. Soliman and I. Tuna. 2006. The Implications of Accounting Distortions and Growth for Accruals and Profitability. The Accounting Review 18 (3): 713-743.
Sloan, R. 1996. Do stock prices fully reflect information in accruals and cash flows about future earnings? The Accounting Review 71: 289-315.
Summers, S. L. and J. T. Sweeney. 1998. Fraudulently Misstated Financial Statements and Insider Trading: An Empirical Analysis. The Accounting Review 73 (1):131-146.
Theodossiou, P. T. 1993. Predicting Shifts in the Time Series Process: An Application in Predicting Business Failure. Journal of the American Statistical Association 88:441-449.
Zmijewski, M. E. 1984. Methodological Issue Related to the Estimation of Financial Distress Prediction Models. Journal of Accounting Research 22(1): 59-81.