臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

由於氣候變遷加劇，使豪雨、乾旱等天然災害發生頻率有增加的趨勢，其對全球經濟造成極大衝擊。過去，許多天然災害損失統計，多僅估算當下由災害直接造成的直接損失，但卻可能忽略若一個產業之經濟活動因災害而停止時，其影響可能會透過產業波及效果而造成間接損失，因此災害損失有被嚴重低估之可能性。因此，若能同時評估天然災害之直接與間接損失，才能更精確了解其對經濟造成之衝擊。本研究目的為評估全台與區域間颱風洪災造成之間接損失，此外亦探討在氣候變遷下，雨量變動對颱風洪災損失之影響。
透過投入產出模型估計過去颱風災損之直接與間接損失，其研究結果顯示，民國74年至90年間，因颱風損失之直接與間接效果共造成產出減損3006.42億元、所得減損464.32億元、51.91萬人失業；平均每年損失176.85億元、所得減損109.72億元、3.05萬人失業。當雨量增加5％、10％、20％時，平均每年損失將由176.85億元增加至188.78、200.71、224.57億元；平均每年所得減損由109.72億元增加至117.12、124.52、139.33億元；每年失業人口平均由30538人增加至32298、34358、38478人。。
本研究透過區域投入產出表估算當台北縣市遭受颱洪衝擊時的直接與間接損失及對各地區之經濟衝擊，在產出減損效果上，雖然主要災損地區為北部地區，但中部地區的產出減損高於北部地區，東部地區所受衝擊為最小；在所得效果部分，以北部地區所得減損效果最大，其次為中部地區，南部地區所得效果為正值；在就業效果部分，其將增加0.01%至0.18％的失業率。而每年平均損失為22.09億元，最高每年平均損失為86.32億元，最低為2.62億元。當雨量增加5%至20%時，產出減損約37.47至436.22億元，所得減損10.20至107.02億元，就業減損2078至21369人。

Due to climate changes, exacerbated heavy rain, drought and other natural disasters have increased frequently to have great impacts on the global economy. In the past, many assessments on natural disaster losses only estimated direct losses caused by disasters. However, if the economic activity of industries stopped by natural disasters is neglected, the indirect losses spread through the industrial linkage effect will be neglected either and the disaster losses may have been underestimated seriously. So, if the direct and indirect losses of natural disasters can be estimated simultaneously, there can be more precise understanding of its economic impacts. The purpose of this study is to assess the indirect losses caused by the whole and regional typhoon floods and, in addition, also explores the impacts of rainfall variations on losses of typhoon floods in the climate changes.
Direct and indirect losses caused by typhoon in Taiwan is estimated by the input-output model and the results show that in 74-90, direct and indirect losses result in total output losses by 300.642 billion, GDP damage by46.432billion, and unemployment by 519,100 people. The average annual output declines 17.685billion, average annual GDP declines 10.972 billion and average annual employment declines 30,500 people. When the rainfall increases 5%, 10%, 20%, respectively, the average annual outputs losses change from 17.685 billion to 18.878, 20.071, 22.457 billion, accordingly; the average annual GDP damage increases from 10.972 billion to 11.712, 12.452,13.933 billion, accordingly; the average annual unemployment population increases from 27454 to 30538, 32298,38478 people.
The direct and indirect losses of typhoon flood in Taipei and the economic impacts of each region are estimated by regional input-output model. In the estimation of detracted outputs, although the major disaster area is in northern region, the detracted outputs of central region are higher than northern region and the impact on eastern region is the lowest. In the estimation of income effect, the GDP damage of northern region is the highest, followed by the central region, and the effect of southern region is positive. In employment effects, unemployment rate will increase from 0.01％ to 0.18%. The annual average output losses are 2.209 billion, the highest annual average output losses are 8.632 billion and the minimum is 262 million. When the rainfall increased from 5％ to 20%, the output losses vary from 3.747 to43.622 billion, the GDP damage decreases from 1.02 to 10.702 billion, and the unemployment increases from 2,078 to21,369 people.

第一章 緒論…………………………………………………………....1
第一節 研究動機與目的...................................................................................1
第二節 研究方法與步驟……………………………………………………...4
第二章 文獻回顧……………………………………………………....5
第一節 洪災損失之分類與定義……………………………………………...5
第二節 投入產出模型之應用……………………………………………..….8
第三節 氣候變遷與災害損失…………………………………………….....10
第三章 理論模型…………………………………………………......12
第一節 基礎理論模型……………………………………………………..….12
第二節 區域產業關聯表……………………………...................................... 17
第三節 產業關聯與乘數效果分析…..…………………….............…………21
第四章 颱風災損之間接損失估計…………………………………..24
第一節 資料來源與整理……………………………………………………...24
第二節 歷年產業關聯型態…………………………………………………...26
第三節 估算颱風之間接損失………………………………………………...30
第四節 實證結果……………………………………………………………...30
第五節 氣候變遷與颱風損失之關係………………………………………...37
第六節 氣候變遷之間接損失估計…………………………………………...39
第五章 地區洪災之間接損失估計……………………………………47
第一節 資料來源與整理……………………………………………………...48
第二節 區域產業關聯型態…………………………………………………...51
第三節 實證結果……………………………………………………………...55
第四節 每年平均損失之估算………………………………………………...59
第五節 氣候變遷與區域洪災損失之關係…………………………………...61
第六章 結論與未來研究方向………………………………………..70
第一節 結論…………………………………………………………………....70
第二節 研究限制與未來研究方向……………………………………………72
參考文獻………………………………………………………………..74
附錄一…………………………………………………………………..80
附錄二…………………………………………………………………..84
附錄三…………………………………………………………………..86
附錄四…………………………………………………………………..88

圖 目 錄
圖4-1 民國90年產業關聯圖……………………………………………………..28
圖5-1 2001年北區產業關聯圖…………………………………………………....52
圖5-2 2001年中區產業關聯圖………………………………………………...…52
圖5-3 2001年南區產業關聯圖…………………………………………………...53
圖5-4 2001年東區產業關聯圖…………………………………………………...53
圖5-5 天然災害損失超越機率曲線………………………………………………59

表 目 錄
表2-1 洪災損失分類與定義………………………………………………………6
表3-1 交易表……………………………………………………………………..13
表3-2 技術係數表………………………………………………………………..14
表3-3 產業關聯程度表 …………………………………………………………15
表3-4 區域間競爭移入交易表..…………………………………………………18
表4-1 歷年颱風損失暨補助資料………………………………………………..25
表4-2 歷年颱風損失暨補助資料分析…………………………………………..25
表4-3 民國90年之產業型態分類表…………………………………………....28
表4-4 歷年產業影響度與感應度………………………………………………..29
表4-5 歷年颱風災損之產出、所得與就業效果………………………………..34
表4-6 颱風災損間接效果之資料分析…………………………………………..35
表4-7 直接間接損失比…………………………………………………………..36
表4-8 颱風災損損失函數係數估計……………………………………………..38
表4-9 雨量變動之產出、所得與間接效果……………………………………..44
表4-10 民國74至90年之雨量變動資料分析…………………………………..45
表4-11 歷年損失平均值分析……………………………………………………..46
表5- 1 產業關聯表分類對照表……………………………………………..…….49
表5- 2 台北縣市各重現期之其他製造業、
批發零售業、辦公室業之洪災直接損失…………………………..…….50
表5-3 2001年北、中、南、東各區影響度及感應度之關聯效果…………...…51
表5-4 北、中、南、東四區之產業型態分類表…………………………….......54
表5-5 區域洪災損失之產出、所得與就業減損效果…………………………...57
表5-6 各重現期直接與間接之損失比…………………………………………...58
表5-7 超越機率函數之係數與面積………………………………….…………..60
表5-8 區域颱洪損失函數係數估計……………………………………………...66
表5-9 雨量變動之區域洪災損失的產出、所得與就業減損效果……………...67

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