透過供應鏈相關研究，Lee(1993)發現供應鏈長鞭效應現象一直存在，其原因在於批次訂貨、價格變動、前置時間不穩定與需求預測不準確等。Lee提出各種改善供應鏈管理的方法，建議提高供應鏈各階層資訊的能見度，才可有效的降低長鞭效應。近年來Wal-Mart推動無線射頻辨識系統(Radio Frequency Identification System,簡稱RFID)，RFID技術的運用可有效的提昇供應鏈資訊的能見度。以產品生命週期的觀念，訂購量與價格需做調整，因此調整時機有賴於RFID技術。
本研究以A公司的17吋液晶顯示器為案例，全球供應鏈體系包含原料廠、液晶面板廠、顯示器工廠、區域發貨中心、地區分公司及零售商。本研究建構出PRSC (PLC-base RFID-enabled Supply Chain)等4種存補貨模式，多重代理人(Multi-Agents)、建置RFID進出貨實驗平台並以（s,Q）之存補貨政策。本研究是以移動平均法來分割歷史售價以訂出產品生命週期4期時間。
本研究因子訂定分別為有無具備PLC功能、有無建置RFID系統及液晶面板廠、顯示器工廠、區域發貨中心、地區分公司及零售商5階層有3種服務水準(90%、95%及99%)，共有7個因子。田口實驗分析出36種參數組合，每組參數組合實驗30次共為1080次實驗。選擇3組實驗，利用白奴里檢定分析存貨總成本與存貨週轉率，都證實3組實驗都有明顯差異。若以相同條件下比較有無RFID，由實驗可以發現在存貨總成本改善3.09%，存貨週轉率降低5.95%。以面板製造商為例總成本改善4.65%，存貨週轉率改善8.75%，因此證明了使用PLC的情況下加入RFID可以改善總成本與存貨週轉率。

Through the related studies on the supply chain, Lee (1993) found the phenomenon on the bullwhip effect in supply chain still existence, the major factors were found in batch order, price variation, lead time flexuous, and demand forecast flexuous. Lee proposed improvement supply chain manages the method, suggested advancing supply chain’s tiers information visibility, and may effective reduce bullwhip effect. However against product life cycle abstraction, order quantity and selling price need to adjust, therefore product life cycle can availably reduce bullwhip effect.
This research is based on the 17” Monitor Global Logistics and Supply Chain case of a major TFT-LCD manufacturer in A company, contain raw materials factory, LCD panel factory, LCD monitor factory, regional DC, branch warehouse, and retailer. This research established contain PRSC (PLC-base RFID-enabled Supply Chain), and so on 4 kinds to inventory replenishment model, Multi-Agents, established RFID turnover goods experiment platform, and s-Q inventory replenishment policy. This research is divides the historical selling price by the moving average method to subscribe product life cycle’s 4 stage.
This research factor hypothesis respectively be whether there is has PLC function, whether there is to establishes the RFID system, LCD panel factory, LCD monitor factory, regional DC, branch warehouse, and retailer 5 tiers 3 kind of service level (90%, 95% and 99%), altogether has 7 factors. Taguchi method analyzes 36 kind of parameters combinations, each parameter combination tests 30 time altogether is 1,080 experiments. Chooses 3 groups to test, uses Bernoulli experiment to analysis total cost and inventory turnover rate, confirmed 3 groups test all have the obvious difference. This research demonstration if whether there is to establishes the RFID system in the same condition, by the experiment may discover improves 3.09% in the total cost, inventory turnover rate reduces 5.95%.In LCD panel factory total cost improves 4.65% , and inventory turnover rate reduces 8.75%,therefore had proven uses PLC the condition to join RFID to be allowed to improve the total cost and inventory turnover rate.

目錄
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2研究問題與目的 2
1.3 研究範圍與限制 2
1.4 研究流程與架構 3
第二章 文獻探討 4
2.1 供應鏈管理 4
2.1.1 長鞭效應 6
2.1.2需求驅動型供應網路系統 7
2.1.3 供應鏈模擬 8
2.2代理人技術 10
2.2.1代理人種類 11
2.2.2供應鏈代理人應用 12
2.3產品生命週期 14
2.3.1產品生命週期定義 14
2.3.2產品生命週期界定 22
2.4 RFID系統 24
2.4.1 RFID/EPC應用 24
第三章 TFT-LCD產業A公司案例 27
3.1 全球運籌供應鏈 27
3.2問題定義 28
3.3 TFT-LCD產品介紹 28
3.3.1 TFT-LCD製程介紹 29
3.3.2 TFT-LCD運作原理 30
3.4 全球產業環境分析 31
3.4.1 TFT-LCD產業相關技術介紹 33
3.4.2 國內產業現況分析 34
第四章 A公司全球運籌供應鏈模擬架構 35
4.1供應鏈代理人分類 36
4.1.1規劃管理代理人 36
4.1.2 數量監控代理人 37
4.1.3 執行作業代理人 38
4.1.4多重代理人供應鏈模型 38
4.2實驗環境 39
4.3系統模擬假設條件 41
4.4參數設定 41
4.5產品生命週期參數設定 48
4.6符號說明 50
4.7 KPI計算式 51
4.8 限制條件 51
4.9 A公司全球運籌供應鏈系統流程步驟 53
4.10 A公司全球運籌供應鏈系統架構 55
4.11 A公司全球運籌供應鏈系統驗證分析 58
4.11.1穩態測試 58
4.11.2時相關係測試 59
4.11.3 整合測試 60
第五章 模擬實驗與結果 62
5.1田口實驗 62
5.2總成本常態機率圖分析 68
5.3存貨週轉率常態機率圖分析 70
5.4假設檢定 72
5.4.1總成本假設檢定 72
5.4.2存貨週轉率假設檢定 78
5.5白奴里試驗(Bernoulli experiment) 83
5.5.1 總成本白奴里試驗 83
5.5.2 存貨週轉率白奴里試驗 87
5.6敏感度分析 91
5.7實驗結論 96
5.7.1 RFID成本 97
第六章 結論與建議 101
參考文獻 102

1.王心婷，2006，快速成長的台灣TFT LCD產業，IT IS產業資訊服務網。
2.朱瑞清，2003，台灣長纖梭織布業產銷策略之動態規劃研究，逢甲大學紡織工程研究所碩士論文。
3.呂文訓，2005，台灣面版產業供應鏈管理與財務分析探討，大同大學機械工程學系(所)碩士論文。
4.林明華，1990，「產品生命週期對消費者資訊處理模式之影響」，大同工學院，事業經營研究所碩士論文。
5.林善德，2005，液晶顯示器全球運籌需求驅動型存補貨模擬系統之研究---以A公司為例，國立勤益技術學院，生產系統工程與管理研究所碩士論文。
6.邱乾銘，2004，供應鏈長鞭效應之探討，國立高雄第一科技大學，運輸與倉儲營運系碩士論文。
7.徐政雄，2005，RFID的應用對供應鏈的影響以汽車產業為例，國立成功大學，管理學院高階管理碩士在職專班EMBA碩士論文。
8.陳定國，1992，「行銷管理導論」，台北：五南書局。
9.陳家聰，2002，多階比例式批量排程問題-具產品生命週期階段、現金流量與市場行銷生產要求之模式，東海大學，工業工程與經營資訊研究所碩士論文。
10.陶在僕，1999，「系統動態學」，五南圖書出版公司，台中。
11.黃文瑛，2006，多項產品不同生命週期存貨管理之模擬分析，國立東華大學，企業管理學系碩士班碩士論文。
12.黃營杉，1978，「行銷通路與佔有率，台灣家電市場之實例研究」，華泰書局。
13.楊錦潭、段維新，2001，「從神經科學及心理學的觀點認識智慧型代理人」，資訊與教育雜誌特刊，頁200-212。
14.劉水深，1982，產品規劃與策略運用，台北。
15.劉世斐，2005，RFID-Enabled供應鏈之存補貨代理人模擬系統設計以TFT-LCD產業為例，國立勤益技術學院，生產系統工程與管理研究所碩士論文。
16.謝長宏，1980，系統動態學－理論、方法與應用，中興管理顧問公司，頁16-20。
17.謝錦坤，1983，產品生命週期應用於行銷策略方案之研究，中山大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。
18.AMR Research, 2005, Compliance and Performance Management.http://www.amrresearch.com/tools/ddsn/ddsnsurvey.asp
19.Ansoff, H.I., and E.J. McDonnell, 1990, "Implanting Strategic Management",Prentice Hall International.
20.Auster and E.R., 1991, "The Relationship of Industry Evolution to Patterns of Technological Linkages, Joint Venture, and Direct Investment Between U. S. and Japan", Working Paper, The Amos Tuck School of Business Administration, Dartmouth College.
21.Banerjee, S., et. al., 2001, "Controlled partial shipments in two-echelon supply chain networks: A simulation study", International Journal of Production Economics, Vol. 71, (1-3), pp.91-100.
22.Ben m. Enis, Raymond La Grace, Arthur E. Proll.and Berenson,C.,1967,"The Purchasing Excutives's Adapation to the Product Life Cycle," Journal of Purchasing,pp.62-68.
23.Berenson, C.,1967, "The Purchasing Executive's Adapation to the Product Life Cycle,"Journal of Purchasing 3, pp. 62-8.
24.Berman, B. and J. R. Evans, 1995, "Retail Management：A Strategic Approach, Englewood Cliffs", Prentice-Hall, N.J..
25.Bin Liu ,2006, "Supply-Chain Coordination With Combined Contract for a Short-Life-Cycle Product",IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics Part A:Systems and Humans, vol.36, no.1, January, 2006, p 53-61
26.Bill C. and Sam M.,2006 , "THE MYTHS AND REALITIES OF RFID", http://itrc.uark.edu
27.Bill C., Dursun Delen and Ramesh Sharda,2007, "RFID for Better Supply-Chain Management through Enhanced Information Visibility", http://itrc.uark.edu
28.Bill C.,Matthew Waller,Robert Miller and Sam M.,2005,"Does RFID Reduce Out of Stocks?A Preliminary Analysis",http://itrc.uark.edu.
29.Bill C.,Matthew Waller,Robert Miller and Sam M.,2006, "RFID’s Impact on Out of Stocks:A Sales Velocity Analysis",http://itrc.uark.edu
30.Borshchev, A., Filippov, A., 2004. "From system dynamics and discrete event to practical agent based modeling: reasons, techniques, tools". IIE SimSol Orlando FL March 15-16.
31.Brenner, W., et. al., 1998, "Intelligent Software Agents：Foundations and Applications", Springer.
32.Chang, P. T. ,2002, "Fuzzy stage characteristic - preserving product life cyclem odeling " Fuzzy sets and systems,126,pp.33-47.
33.Charles Scott, Roy Westbrook ,1991,"New Strategic Tools for Supply Chain Management," Journal of Physical Distribution and Logistics Management, Vol.21, No.1, pp.23-33.
34.Chen, F., Z., et. al., 2000, Quantifying the bullwhip effect in a simple supply chain: The impact of forecasting, lead time, and Information, Management Science, Vol. 46, (3), pp.436-443.
35.Christopher, M., 2000, "The agile supply chain competing in volatile markets", Industrial Marketing Management, Vol. 29, pp.37-44.
36.Clifford, D. K.,1978, "Managing the Product Life Cycle," Marketing Management and Administrative, 4thed, McGraw-Hill, pp. 237-43.
37.Cohen, M. A. and Whang S.,1997,"Competing in product and service: a product life-cycle model" Management Science,43(4),pp.545-545.
38.Cooper,R. and Yoshikawa, T.,1994,"Inter-organization Cost Management Systems: The Case of the Tokyo-Yokohama-Kamakura Supply Chain," Journal of Production Economics,Vol.37,No.1,pp.51-62.
39.Crow, L., and Shadbolt, N.R., 1998, "IMPS-Internet Agents for Knowledge engineering", Proceedings of the 11th Knowledge Acquisition Workshop, Banff, Alberta, Canada.
40.Dean, 1950 ,J.,"Pricing policies for new products," Harvard Business Review ,pp.45-53
41.Denis R, Towill, Mohamed M. Naim, and Joakin Winker,1992,"Industrial Dynamics Simulation Models in the Design of Supply Chains," Journal of Physical Distribution and Logistics Management,Vol.22,No.5,pp.3-13.
42.Dhalla, N. K. and Yuspeh, S.,1976, "Forget the Product Life Cycle Concepts!," Harvard Business Review, Jan-Feb, pp.102-12.
43.EPCglobal TAIWAN, 2005, EPC標準。http://www.epcglobal.org.tw/epcg/jsp/a2.htm
44.Forrest J.W., 1961, "Industrial Dynamics", The MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
45.Greg A., 2005, "DDSN Visibility for Global Supply Lines: Technology Options Abound", AMR Research, Inc.
46.Hasse, R., 1997, "Building a Genetic User Agent for Multi-agent Integrated Enterprise", Enterprise Integration, University of Toronto.
47.Hau L,Lee and Corey Billington,1993,"Material Management in Decentralized Supply Chains," Journal of Operations Research, Sep.-Oct.,pp.835-847.
48.Houlihan, J. B., 1984, "International Supply Chains：A New Approach", Management Decision, Vol. 26.
49.Jad S. R., 2004, "Chip on paper technology utilizing anisotropically conductive adhesive for smart label applications”, Microelectronics Reliability, Vol. 44, pp.135–140.
50.Johnson and Wood,1996,"Mastering Logistic Change," Journal of Logistics Management, Feb.,pp.43-53.
51.Joines, J.A., et. al, 2000, "Introduction to Simulation", Proceedings of the 2000 Winter Simulation Conference.
52.Jones,T.C. and D.W. Riley,1985,"Using Inventory for competitive advantage through supply chain management,"Journal of Computer Integrated Manufacturing,Vol.15,No.5, pp.16-26.
53.Kaihara, T., 2001, "Supply chain management with market economics", Int. J. Production Economics, Vol. 73, pp.5-14.
54.Keegan, W., S. Moriarty, and T. Duncan. 1992. “Marketing”. Prentice Hall, Upper
55.Saddle River, New Jersey.
56.Kelle, P., and Milne, A., 1999, "The effect of(s, S)ordering policy on the supply chain", International Journal of Production Economics,Vol. 59, pp.113-122.
57.Kevin O., 2004, "Why DDSN Matters: Supply Chain Professionals Set the Course for Profitable Growth", AMR Research, Inc.
58.Kimbrough, S., et. al., 2002, "Computers Play the Beer Game: Can Artificial Agents Manage Supply Chains?" , Decision Support Systems, Vol. 33, (3), pp.323-333.
59.Kolter, P.,1991, "Marketing Management: Analysis, Planning, Implementation and Control", Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs.
60.Kolter, P. , 1997, "Marketing management: Analysis, planning, implementation, and control", David Borkowsky, N. J.
61.Kotler, P.,1994, "Marketing Management", 8thed, New Jersey: Prentice-Hall.
62.Larry, J. R.,1977,, "Marketing", New Jersey: Prentice-Hill.
63.Lee, H. L., et. al., 1997, "Information distortion in a supply chain: The bullwhip effect", Management Science, Vol. 43,(4), pp.546-558.
64.Levitt T.,1965,"Exploit the Product Life Cycle," Journal of Harvard Business Review, Nov.-Dec.,pp.81-94.
65.Lisa M. Ellram and Martha C. Cooper,1990,"Supply Chain Management, Partnership, and the Shipper - Third Party Relationship," Journal of Logistics Management,Vol.1,No.2,pp.1-10.
66.Lummus, Rhonda R.,and Robert J.Vokurka,1999,"Managing the demand chain through managing the information flow : capturing moments of information," Journal of Production and Inventory Management,Vol.40,No.1,pp.16-20.
67.Nwana, H. S., 1996, "Software Agents: An Overview", Knowledge Engineering Review, Vol. 11, pp.205-244.
68.Onkvisit, S. and Shaw J.J.,1989, "Product life cycles and product management", Quorum Books,New York.
69.Permala and Scholliers, 2002, "New Technologies for multimodal tracking and control", 9th World Congress on ITS, Chicago.
70.Polli, R. and Cook, V.,1969, "Validity of the product life cycle " Journal of Business,4,pp.385-400.
71.Polli, R. and Cook, V.,1969, "Validity of the Product Life Cycle," Journal of Business, October, pp. 385-400
72.Porter, M. E., 1980, "Competitive Strategy", Prentice-Hall.
73.Rink, D. R. and Swan, J. F.,1979, "Product Life Cycle Research: A Literature Review," Journal of Business Research, July, pp. 219-242.
74.Rink, D. R. and Swan, J. F.,1979, "Product Life Cycle Research: A Literature Review," Journal of Business Research, July, pp. 219-242.
75.Roddy M., 2003, "DDSN Requires Optimization Across Products, Customers, and Operations", AMR Research Inc.
76.Rogers, Everett M., 1962, "Diffusion of Innovations", New York, The Free Press of Glencol.
77.Schewe, C. D. and Smith, R. M.,1983, "Marketing, Concepts and Applications", McGraw-Hill.
78.Selker, T., 1994, "oach: A Teaching Agent that Learns", Communications of the ACM, Vol. 37, pp.92-99.
79.Smallwood J. E.,1973, "The Product Life Cycle :A Key to Strategic Marketing Planning," MSU Business Topics, Winter.
80.Smallwood J.E.,1973,"The Product Life Cycle:A key to Strategic Marketing Planning," Journal of MSU Business Topics, Winter.
81.Smallwood, J. E., 1973, "The Product Life Cycle：A Key to Strategic Marketing,"MSU-Business Topics, Vol.21, pp. 31,29-35.
82.Sycara, K., et. al., 2004, "Distributed Intelligent Agents", IEEE Expert, Homepage, http://www.cs.cmu.edu
83.Tan K.C.,R.B. Handfield, and D.R. Krause,1998,"Enhancing the firm's performance through quality and supply base management: An empirical study,"Journal of Production Research,Vol.36,No.10,pp.2813-2837.
84.Varun G., Manoj K. M., 2003, "Transaction cost framework in operations and supply chain management research: theory and measurement", Journal of Operations Management, Vol. 21, pp.457-473.
85.Vinay A., Larry L., 2003, "Externalizing Supply Chain Processes Is Vital for Demand-Driven Supply Networks", AMR Research, Inc.
86Wal-Mart Stores, Inc., 2005, "Wal-Mart Improves On-Shelf Availability Through the Use of Electronic Product Codes", Wal-Mart Corporate Communications, Vol. 279, pp.273-4314.
87.Wooldridge, M., et. al., 1995, "Intelligent agents: Theory and practice", The Knowledge Engineering Review, Vol. 10, (2), pp.115-152.
88.Xu, K., et. al. , 2001, "Towards better coordination of the supply chain", Transportation Research Part E, Vol. 37, pp.35-54.
89.Young M. Lee, et. al., 2004, "Exploring The Impact of RFID on Supply Chain Dynamics", Proceedings of the 2004 Winter Simulation Conference.
90.Yung, S.K. and Yang, C.C., 1999, "A New Approach to Solve Supply Chain Management Problem by Intergrading Multi-agent Technology and Constraint Network", Proceedings of the 32nd Hawaii International Conference on System Science.
91.Zee, van der, D.J. and Vorst, van der, J.G.A.J. ,2005, "A modeling framework for supply chain simulation: opportunities for improved decision making", Decision Sciences, Vol. 39, No. 1, pp.65-96.
92.Zeng, D.D. and Sycara, K., 1998, "Dynamic Supply Chain Structuring for Electronic Commerce Among Agents", Graduate Shoot of Industrial Administration, Carnegie Mellon University.