臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究旨在探討台灣地區行動通訊用戶選擇行動通訊系統及服務業者之選擇行為及其重要影響因素。本研究透過網路問卷方式，將問卷內容置於網站上並公告於電信業者討論區版面，蒐集台灣地區行動通訊用戶選擇行動通訊服務系統及服務業者的顯示性偏好資料（RP），以及行動通訊用戶在情境模擬下的敘述性偏好資料（SP），總計蒐集到有效樣本456份。本研究除利用多變量之因素分析找出影響選擇行動通訊系統及服務業者之潛在變數外，並藉由顯示性偏好及敘述性偏好資料，利用多項羅吉特模式及巢式羅吉特模式建構台灣地區行動通訊系統及服務業者之個體需求模式，
實證校估結果顯示：在產品方面，服務品質越好，用戶使用該行動通訊服務系統及業者之意願越高，服務態度之提昇為四項服務品質指標中彈性最高之指標，行動通訊服務業者應優先改進其服務態度；在費率方面，費率越低，用戶使用該行動通訊服務系統及業者之意願越高，降價促銷確實能提高用戶使用之意願，且調降網外語音通話費率效果比調降月租費來的好；在推廣方面，手機補貼金額越高，用戶使用該行動通訊服務系統及業者之意願越高。
PHS系統業者大眾電信應該繼續掌握價格上之優勢，努力維持暨有用戶，並藉由提升其服務品質增加市佔率；3G中華電信在調降月租費與網外語音通話費率效果皆為3G業者最佳，可藉由調降月租費與網外語音通話費率來提升其市占率；3G台灣大哥大在調降月租費、網外語音通話費率以及增加手機補貼金額所造成市占率的效果皆在第二位，因此3G台灣大哥大不應主動調降月租費或是網外語音通話費率，而應被動式的跟進其他業者的策略；3G遠傳電信在調降網外語音費率效果最好，因此3G遠傳電信可以增加手機補貼金額做為提升市占率之主要策略；亞太行動寬頻與威寶電信兩家新進業者除可提供較中華電信、台灣大哥大以及遠傳電信優惠的價格以擴充市佔率之外，亦可藉由電視及平面媒體教育用戶提昇用戶對於3G系統服務瞭解程度。

This research analyzes the choice behavior of subscribers for mobile service systems and mobile service operators in Taiwan. Revealed preference (RP) data and stated preference (SP) data are collected by internet questionnaires (posted on related telecommunications disscusion forums), and total 456 effective samples are received. We first derive, by factor analysis, the latent influential variables influencing subscribers’ choices of systems and operators. Then, we use the RP and SP data to construct individual choice model of systems and operators in Taiwan by multinomial logit (MNL) model and by nested logit (NL) model. The elasticities of monthly fee, call rate, and promotion of operators are calculated and compared. Finally, several scenarios of monthly fee, call rate, and promotion for 3G operators are studied.
The empirical results of the MNL and the NL models are summaried as follow: Product: The higher service quality increases subscriber’s intention for that system and operator. Promotion in service attitude, with the highest elasticity among all four quality indexes, should be the first priority of operators. Price: The lower service tarriffs increases subscriber’s intention for that system and operator. In particular, reduction in call rate is more effective than that in monthly fee. Promotion: The better promotion increases subscriber’s intention for that system and operator.
First International Telcom of PHS system should keep the advantage in price to hold out its current subscribers, and should promote its service quality to raise market share. Chunghwa Telcom of 2G and 3G systems could raise its 3G market share by decreasing 3G monthly fee and call rate. Taiwan Mobile of 2G and 3G systems should passively react to its competitors’ stragety since the effectiveness of the reduction in monthly fee, call rate, and of the increase in promotion is listed in the second of three major 3G operators. Far Eastone Telcom of 2G and 3G systems could decrease its 3G call rate to raise 3G market share. Finally, Asia Pacific Broadband Wireless Communications and VIBO Telcom of 3G system can expand their market shares by reductions in tariffs or by increase in subscribers’ knowledge for 3G system.

摘要 i
Abstract ii
誌謝 iii
目錄 iv
圖目錄 vi
表目錄 vii
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 研究目的 7
1.3 研究範圍與限制 8
1.4 研究內容與方法 9
1.5 研究流程 10
第二章 市場現況與文獻回顧 12
2.1 國內行動通訊市場現況分析 12
2.1.1 行動通訊市場的分類 12
2.1.2 2G服務提供者之經營策略 14
2.1.3 PHS服務提供者之經營策略 15
2.1.4 3G服務提供者之經營策略 16
2.2 行動通訊服務需求之相關文獻 17
2.2.1 以迴歸分析探討行動通訊服務需求之相關文獻 17
2.2.2 以個體選擇模式探討通訊服務需求之相關文獻 23
2.2.3 研究模式建構 31
第三章 研究方法 35
3.1 資料分析方法 35
3.1.1 因素分析 35
3.1.2 變異數分析 35
3.2 個體選擇模式 36
3.2.1 多項羅吉特模式 37
3.2.2 多項羅吉特模式的不相干方案獨立性 38
3.2.3 巢式羅吉特模式 39
3.2.4 概似比指標（Likelihood ratio index） 41
3.2.5 概似比統計量(Likelihood-ration statistics) 42
3.2.6 漸進t檢定（Asymptotic t test） 42
3.2.7 顯示性偏好 42
3.2.8 敘述性偏好 42
第四章 問卷調查與資料分析 44
4.1 前測 44
4.1.1 前測問卷設計 44
4.1.2 前測問卷資料分析 45
4.2 問卷設計與調查 49
4.2.1 問卷設計 49
4.2.2 調查方式與回收樣本 53
4.2.3 問卷資料分析 54
4.2.4 行動通訊使用行為分析 56
4.2.5 服務品質分析 57
4.2.6 敘述性偏好與顯示性偏好選擇分佈 59
第五章 實證分析 61
5.1 顯示性偏好數據選擇模式 61
5.1.1 多項羅吉特模式 61
5.1.2 巢式羅吉特模式 65
5.1.3 小結 67
5.2 敘述性偏好數據選擇模式 69
5.2.1 多項羅吉特模式 69
5.2.2 巢式羅吉特模式 71
5.2.3 小結 73
5.3 顯示性偏好及敘述性偏好選擇模式校估結果之比較 74
5.4 彈性分析與情境模擬 76
5.4.1 彈性分析 76
5.4.2 情境模擬 80
5.4.3 小結 88
第六章 結論與建議 89
6.1 結論 89
6.2 建議 89
參考文獻 92
一、中文部份 92
二、英文部分 92
附錄一 前測問卷 96
附錄二 正式問卷 99

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4.大眾電信網站：http://www.fitel.net.tw/
5.手機王網站：http://www.sogi.com.tw/index.asp/
6.中華電信網站：http://www.cht.com.tw/
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