臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

在現今變化快速的環境中，新材料已成為公司或是企業相當重要的獲利與成長之重要因子。然而，在新材料的技術發展中，卻充滿著許多的不確定性，故藉由評選出適當的新材料技術預測方法，便漸形日益重要。選擇一個好的技術預測方法，將較能得到一個有用且準確的預測結果。
因此，本研究的主要目的即是利用FAHP方法，探究在新材料技術預測方法評選上的主要評估準則與其較適切之技術預測方法。另外，本研究將以奈米陶瓷粉末為例，深入探討其新材料之技術預測發展情形，尤其在新材料的技術應用上。以下為本研究主要的發現與結論：
1. 新材料技術預測方法評選上的主要評估準則分別為：「資料的可獲得性」、「資料的有效性」、「技術發展的可預測性」、「技術的相似性」、「方法的適應性」、「操作的簡易性」、與「執行的成本」等七項。而根據本研究的結果顯示，在七個評估準則中，以資料的有效性最為重要，其次依序分別為方法的適應性與技術發展的可預測性。
2. 根據專家的評選與FAHP方法，評選出「Delphi法」、「個案研究法」、以及「成長曲線法」，分別依序為前三名最受喜愛使用於新材料領域上的技術預測方法。此外，藉由此評選過程中發現，FAHP方法是個可以提供給公司政策決策者或是研究人員於評選新材料技術預測方法時，有用的評估決策工具。
3. 新材料∼奈米陶瓷粉末目前仍然處於技術生命週期上的萌芽期或是剛進入成長期的初始階段。藉由本研究中的成長曲線法及專家意見法之結果顯示，奈米陶瓷粉末的技術發展要開始進入技術生命週期之成熟期的時間點，皆將落在2010年以後才會見到。
4. 由於奈米級陶瓷粉末的應用分佈情形，相當類似於傳統的陶瓷粉末。以及由成長曲線方法的結果顯示，當傳統的陶瓷粉末將於2011年附近逐漸進入技術生命週期成長緩慢的飽和成熟階段；而奈米陶瓷粉末卻才剛要於2012~2014年進入快速成長的階段。因此，我們可以推斷，在傳統的陶瓷粉末與奈米級的陶瓷粉末技術應用上，存在著部分比例取代之關係；而本研究之專家意見結果亦有著相同顯示之情形。
5. 在本研究中所使用的Bibliometrics 方法和專利分析，提供了一個聯結科學與技術行為的簡單卻有效率之工具，並且能提供量化與具歷史性的資料給技術預測人員，從事相關預測。而此對具有較少歷史資料的研究領域，如新材料領域等，更有實質上之助益。

The main purposes of this study are to perceive the critical evaluation criteria and to evaluate the technology forecasting methods for development of new materials by FAHP approach. Furthermore, we would adopt nanosized ceramic powders as the object of study in new material fields and investigate the technology forecasting of those materials by expert opinion and growth curve method through bibliometrics and patent analysis.
Five major conclusions in our study can be made as follows:
1. Seven criteria were identified for evaluating the new materials development including data availability, data validity, technology development predictability, technology similarity, method adaptability, ease of operation, and implementation cost. The results of the evaluation criteria indicate that among the seven evaluation criteria, the criterion data validity has the highest weight, followed by the criteria method adaptability and technology development predictability in the second and third place, respectively.
2. Based on the subjective judgments made by experts, this comparative study shows that Delphi method, the case study method and growth curve method are the top three most favorable technology forecasting methods in the field of new materials development. In addition, the application of FAHP method could provide an avenue for corporation policy makers and researchers to evaluate the technology forecasting methods for new materials development.
3. The technologies of nanosized ceramic powders were still emerging technologies or in the initial growth periods of technological life cycles nowadays, and the both results through growth curve method and expert opinion method showed the estimated time for the technological life cycles of nanosized ceramic powers beginning from growth periods into maturity periods were over 2010 years.
4. Owing to the distributions of applications of technology for nanosized ceramic powders were similar to traditional ceramic powders. And the results from the growth curve method, that were represented traditional ceramic powder would attain the slow growth period (maturity period) of technological life cycle in 2011 years, but the nanosized ceramic powder would roughly simultaneously arrive the fast growth period in 2012-2014 years. Hence, we could boldly conceive that there were parts of substitutions of applications between traditional and nanosized ceramic powders. Besides, the results of expert opinion expressed the similar consequences.
5. The bibliometrics and patent analysis were proposed as the simple and efficient tools to link the science and technology activities and to obtain quantitative and historical data for helping researchers in technology forecasting, especially in rare historical data available fields, such as the new materials fields.

Chinese Abstract .............................................................I
English Abstract............................................................III
Acknowledgements..............................................................V
Table of Contents............................................................VI
Table Index................................................................VIII
Figure Index.................................................................IX
Ch1.Introduction ............................................................ 1
1.1 Research background and purpose ...................................... 1
1.2 Research content items ................................................. 2
1.3 Research method and procedures ........................................ 3
Ch2. Literature review ................................................. 6
2.1 The literatures about evaluating the technology forcasting methods...... 6
2.2 The related applications of technology forecasting method .............. 13
Ch.3 Evaluation of the technology forecasting methods for the new
materials development.................................................. 21
3.1 The Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process ................................... 21
3.2 Research design......................................................... 26
3.3 Results and discussion.................................................. 31
3.4 Conclusions............................................................. 35
Ch4. The technology forecasting of new materials: nanosized ceramic powders. 37
4.1 Introduction for nanosized ceramic powders market ...................... 37
4.2 The study by the growth curve method ................................... 41
4.3 The study by the expert opinion method.................................. 66
4.4 Conclusions............................................................. 68
Ch5. Conclusions and discussions.................. ......................... 69
5.1 Conclusions............................................................. 69
5.2 Discussions............................................................. 71
References ................................................................. 73
Appendixes Ⅰ............................................................... 79
Appendixes Ⅱ................................................................86

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