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研究生:余守純
研究生(外文):Shou-chun Yu
論文名稱:探究人力資本對經濟成長的貢獻-以低中高所得國家為例
論文名稱(外文):The Contribution of Human Capital to Economic Grwoth: Evidence from Low, Middle and High Income Countries
指導教授:謝文真謝文真引用關係
指導教授(外文):Wen-jen Hsieh
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立成功大學
系所名稱:政治經濟學研究所
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:經濟學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2007
畢業學年度:95
語文別:中文
論文頁數:130
中文關鍵詞:低中高所得國家經濟成長固定效果模型人力資本追蹤資料
外文關鍵詞:Human CapitalEconomic GrowthMiddle and High Income CountriesLowFixed Effect ModelPanel Data
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:3
  • 點閱點閱:211
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  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:2
本研究主要在於探討人力資本對經濟成長之貢獻,人力資本簡而言之是指具有知識或技能、受過正規教育或在職訓練之健全勞動力 (skilled-labor),其與單純原始的體力勞動 (raw labor) 不同,不僅重視勞動力的量 (quantity),更加重視勞動力的品質 (quality)。故本文以教育—初級、中級或高級教育註冊率與健康—不足最高預期壽命之歲數或健康支出佔GDP之百分比來作為人力資本的替代變數,選取資料齊全的17個低所得國家、41個中所得國家以及24個高所得國家 (外部群組) 作為分析的對象;其中,中所得國家又可再區分為22個中低與19個中高所得國 (內部群組),探討是否人力資本隨著知識經濟時代的來臨,對內外部群組國之經濟成長皆扮演著顯著性的重要角色,抑或因群組間經濟結構之差異而有不同程度的重要性。

在研究方法上,由於本文採用各所得群組2000~2004年的追蹤資料 (panel data)對被解釋變項—勞動者的人均所得進行分析, 故先利用F檢定來判斷出國家結構間存在異質性 (heterogeneity) 而不適用一般最小平方法 (pooled OLS);之後,再藉由Hausman檢定來判定適合本研究追蹤資料的實證模型為固定效果模型 (fixed effect model)。為避免Granger因果關係 (Granger causality) 的存在以及人力資本資料齊全度的考量,解釋變項則皆採落後二期進行研究。此外,在實證分析的過程中,亦透過一階序列相關 (first-order autocorrelation, AR(1)) 以及橫斷面 (cross section)近似無關迴歸 (seemingly unrelated regression, SUR) 來處理變數的殘差項間可能存在的序列相關 (serial correlation) 和變異數不齊一 (heteroskedasticity) 的問題。

實證分析結果建議:一、對低所得群組國來說,政府最好的投資決策應是對實質與人力資本的重視兼顧,而人力資本中則又以對初級和中級教育的普及推廣較為重要。二、對中所得、中低與中高所得群組國而言,政府對人力資本的重視應甚於實質資本的投資,且人力資本中的教育與健康變項二者應並重。三、對高所得國家來說,政府則應對實質與人力資本之投資並重,但人力資本中又以高級教育的普及與預期壽命的提高較為重要。

故對低、中、高所得 (外部) 群組國而言,經濟結構的差異確實造成人力資本對其重要程度不同的結果;但對中所得內部群組來說,人力資本的投資 (無論是教育或健康面向) 皆是帶動其經濟成長的首要工作,故中所得國內部結構的差異並沒有造成人力資本對其重要性各異的結果。
This paper intends to analyze the contribution of human capital to the economic growth. In a word, human capital means the healthy labors which are skilled, educated or have accepted on-the-job-training and they are different from the raw labors. Human capital not only puts emphasis on the quantity of labor force but also on the quality. Hence, in this research, two variables are used as a proxy for human capital. The first is education, which is defined as the enrollment rates of primary, secondary or tertiary education. The second proxy for human capital is health, expressed as the shortfall of life expectancy relative to a nominal benchmark or the ratio of public health expenditures to GDP. Due to the limitation of data on, in terms of both coverage of countries and length of time series, the empirical work reported here uses for 17 low- income countries, 41 middle-income countries and 24 high-income countries (three external groups). Furthermore, the 41 middle-income countries can be divided into two groups: 22 lower-middle-income countries and 19 upper-middle-income countries (two internal groups). Therefore, we use the three external and two internal groups to probe into the impact of human capital on economic growth. With the coming knowledge economy age, we want to know whether human capital plays an important role for both of the external and internal groups or possesses importance at different levels for them because of the distinct economic structures from each other.

To begin, the paper applies F test to investigate the heterogeneity which certainly exists among the sample data. Therefore, we often use either fixed effect model or random effect model to perform the empirical work. After Hausman test has been performed, the fixed effect model has been chosen. And the period under study for the explained variable, which is defined as labor income per capita, is from the year 2000 to 2004; however, the independent variables are from the year 1998 to 2002 in order to avoid Granger causality and data incompleteness. In addition, the first-order autocorrelation (AR(1)) and the cross section seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) are employed to mitigate the problems of serial correlation and heteroskedasticity, which may exist among variables.

The econometric results suggest that: (1) for the low-income country group, investing in physical capital and human capital are of equal importance to the government; furthermore, in the human capital, policies to increase economic growth should favor investments in education (especially primary and secondary education) over health; (2) for the middle, lower-middle and upper-middle income country groups, the governments should pay more attention to invest in human capital than in physical capital. And in the human capital, the governments must put emphasis on education and health simultaneously; (3) for the high-income country group, the government should place importance on physical capital and human capital at the same time. As for human capital, specific policies to stimulate economic growth should prefer investments in tertiary education and raise life expectancy at birth.

Consequently, the differences of economic structures among the low, middle and high-income country (external) groups certainly cause them to place importance on human capital at different levels. However, for the middle, lower-middle and upper-middle income country (internal) groups, the prerequisite to increase economic growth is investments in human capital (both of education and health). In other words, differences of the economic structures within the internal groups do not lead them to the diverse results.
第一章 緒論……………………………………………………………………1
第一節 研究動機………………………………………………………………2
第二節 研究目的………………………………………………………………4
第三節 研究流程………………………………………………………………6
第二章 理論探討與實證文獻回顧……………………………………………9
第一節 人力資本與經濟成長相關理論介紹…………………………………9
第二節 人力資本與經濟成長之跨國研究……………………………………13
第三節 人力資本與經濟成長之時間序列研究………………………………17
第四節 人力資本與經濟成長之追蹤資料研究………………………………21
第三章 人力資本與國家群組說明……………………………………………26
第一節 人力資本概念之介紹…………………………………………………26
第二節 人力資本之衡量………………………………………………………28
第三節 國家群組分類說明……………………………………………………32
第四章 研究方法………………………………………………………………34
第一節 理論模型之介紹………………………………………………………34
第二節 計量模型之修正與變數說明…………………………………………38
第三節 實證分析流程…………………………………………………………48
第五章 實證分析………………………………………………………………51
第一節 敘述統計………………………………………………………………52
第二節 變數之單根檢定………………………………………………………55
第三節 追蹤資料之模型選擇…………………………………………………56
第四節 追蹤資料之迴歸分析…………………………………………………59
第六章 結論……………………………………………………………………85
第一節 結論與政策建議………………………………………………………85
第二節 研究貢獻與限制………………………………………………………87
參考文獻 ………………………………………………………………………88
附錄一:國家群組介紹 ………………………………………………………97
附錄二:Levin-Lin-Chu (LLC) Test……………………………………………99
附錄三:模型介紹……………………………………………………………101
附錄四:追蹤資料異質性檢定………………………………………………106
附錄五:Hausman檢定 ………………………………………………………109
附錄六:各組別固定與隨機效果之迴歸結果………………………………110
附錄七:各組別完整之迴歸分析結果………………………………………120
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