臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

由於足球賽制的修改，當兩隊實力相當到平局時，最後勝負關鍵點，由罰球點球（Penalty Kick）決定。近年來，此情況屢見不鮮。本研究以2006年世界盃足球賽罰球點球為研究對象，找出守門員和射門者表現的關鍵要素，並探討罰球點球守門員策略發展。運用標記式分析及SILICON COACH（2D）動作分析，得以下結論：2006年世界盃足球賽罰球點球執行後，球落點位置，進球區域以左右兩大區域為主，與2002年世界盃位置大致雷同。分析2006年世界盃罰球點球守門員使用策略次數，以GB策略(早策略)為主。對照2002年世界盃守門員使用GA策略(晚策略)、GB策略各使用次數（GA：15、GB：22）。分析2006年世界盃守門員使用GA與GB策略次數（GA：13、GB：37），GB策略使用次數明顯高於GA策略。守門員使用策略比率，以GB策略為主（GA：26%、GB：74%）;較2002年世界盃策略為（GA：41%、GB：59%），其中GB策略比率提昇15%。分析守門員策略，撲救成功比率，以GB策略為主（GA：8％、GB：22％）；較2002年世界盃守門員撲救成功比率，以GA策略為主而不同（GA：36％、GB：11％）。其中2006年世界盃守門員使用GB策略撲救成功率提昇11％。綜合分析2006世界盃罰球點球表現特點，經資料分析，使得罰球點球守門員使用GB策略次數、撲救成功比率及採用GB策略皆成為目前國際比賽主要趨勢。使得GA策略的優勢不再如Kuhn於1980年代提出時來的優勢。

Due to the modification of football match regulation, the penalty kick has become a critical point of the final match-outcome when two national teams have shown the highest equivalent performance and have resolve in a tie. In recent years, this has become a recurring phenomenon. This research focused on the penalty kicks in the 2006 World Cup (WC2006). The objective was to identify the possible determining factors influencing the performance of goalkeepers and strikers. Discussion on penalty strategies and other penalty kick researches in the international field were also brought into consideration. Notational analysis and SILOCON COACH, a 2D motion analysis system, were used to analyze data. The results were as below: the places where the ball passed the goalmouth were recorded with a tendency to fall in the two far sides of the goal. This mapping of places has shown great accordance with the result of WC2002. Results also showed the scoring rate, scoring count, and an evident strategy adoption of the GB strategy (early strategy) which conflicts with the results of WC2002, which the GA strategy (late strategy) was adopted more often(WC2002 GA:15, GB:22; WC2006 GA:13, GB:37). Compared to the findings of WC2002, in which GA was better, the results of scoring strategy in WC2006 showed better performance of the GB strategy (WC2002 GA: 41%, GB: 59%; WC2006 GA: 26%, GB: 74%). From the data gathered and analyzed, the GB strategy seemed to be the current trend in terms of adoption and scoring rate. (WC2002 GA: 36％; GB: 11％; WC2006 GA: 8％; GB: 22％). Hence, the GA strategy would likely not be as advantageous as what Kuhn had urged in the 1980s.

中文摘要-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------I
英文摘要----------------------------------------------------------------------------------II
誌謝---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------III
目錄---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------IV
表目錄------------------------------------------------------------------------------------VI
圖目錄-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------VII

第壹章 緒論
第一節 研究背景-----------------------------------------------------------------------1
第二節 研究動機-----------------------------------------------------------------------7
第三節 研究目的-----------------------------------------------------------------------9
第四節 研究問題----------------------------------------------------------------------10
第五節 研究範圍----------------------------------------------------------------------11
第六節 研究限制----------------------------------------------------------------------11
第七節 名詞解釋----------------------------------------------------------------------12

第貳章 文獻探討
第一節 罰球點球策略的理論基礎-------------------------------------------------13
第二節 罰球點球策略之相關文獻探討-------------------------------------------17
第三節 標記式分析的理論與評析-------------------------------------------------22

第參章 研究方法
第一節 研究架構----------------------------------------------------------------------26
第二節 研究對象----------------------------------------------------------------------27
第三節 研究工具----------------------------------------------------------------------27
第四節 實施步驟----------------------------------------------------------------------28
第五節 研究之信效度----------------------------------------------------------------28


第肆章　結果與討論
第一節 標記式統計分析2006年世界盃足球賽罰球點球進球位置---------31
第二節 統計分析2006年世界盃足球賽罰球點球守門員使用GA
與GB策略次數-------------------------------------------------------------39
第三節 統計分析2006年世界盃足球賽罰球點球守門員使用GA
與GB策略比率-------------------------------------------------------------43
第四節 統計分析2006年世界盃足球賽罰球點球守門員使用GA
與GB策略撲救成功比率-------------------------------------------------46
第五節 分析2006年世界盃足球賽罰球點球其綜合表現特點---------------49

第伍章　結論與建議
第一節 結論---------------------------------------------------------------------------52
第二節 實際應用---------------------------------------------------------------------54
第三節 建議---------------------------------------------------------------------------56

参考文獻---------------------------------------------------------------------------------58
附錄一 2006年世界杯足球賽50個罰球點球落點位置------------------------------64
附錄二 2006年世界杯足球賽50個罰球點球綜合資料------------------------------66

表目錄

表1-1 歷屆世界盃罰球點球決勝賽表--------------------------------------------------8

表4-1 2006年世界盃足球賽罰球點球守門員使用GA與GB策略次數表---40

表4-2 2006年世界盃足球賽罰球點球守門員使用GA與GB策略比率表---43

表4-3 2002年與2006年世界盃足球賽罰球點球守門員使用GA與GB
策略之成功率表-------------------------------------------------------------------47

圖目錄

圖2-1 訓練週期之示意圖-----------------------------------------------------------------24
圖3-1 研究架構圖---------------------------------------------------------------------------26
圖3-2 射入球門口橫切面(plane of the goalmouth)圖------------------------------27
圖3-3 研究流程圖---------------------------------------------------------------------------29
圖3-4 預定進度甘梯圖(Gantt Chart) --------------------------------------------------30
圖4-1 射入球門口橫切面( plane of the goalmouth )圖----------------------------32
圖4-2 2006年世界盃足球賽罰球點球成功射進入球門口橫切面圖----------32
圖4-3 2006年世界盃足球賽罰球點球射偏未進入球門口橫切面圖----------33
圖4-4 2006年世界盃足球賽罰球點球碰到球但未撲救成功之位置
球門口橫切面圖-------------------------------------------------------------------33
圖4-5 2006年世界盃足球賽罰球點球撲救成功球門口橫切面圖------------34
圖4-6 2006年世界盃50個罰球點球射門綜合落點區域位置圖---------------34
圖4-7 2002年世界盃罰球點球射門落點區域位置圖-----------------------------36
圖4-8 2006年世界盃罰球點球射門落點區域位置圖-----------------------------37
圖4-9 2002年與2006年世界盃綜合兩屆罰球點球射門落點區域圖---------37

圖4-10 2006年世界盃足球賽罰球點球守門員使用GA與GB策
略之比較圖------------------------------------------------------------------------40
圖4-11 2006年世界盃足球賽罰球點球守門員使用GA與GB策略比率圖--44
圖4-12 2002年與2006年世界盃足球賽罰球點球守門員使用GA
與GB策略撲救之成功比率圖--------------------------------------------48

圖5-1 守門員與踢球者訓練應用參考圖---------------------------------------------55
圖5-2 守門員與踢球者提昇防守與進球比率的發展區域圖--------------------55

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