〝未雨綢繆〞(Save for a rainy day)為 Campbell 於 1987 年所發表的文章中一個著名的理論，文中指出個人消費的多寡取決於其對未來經濟的理性預期。雖是如此，但對於一個高度開發的國家而言，個人消費會受到各種因素的影響，例如：利率、時間偏好率、通貨膨脹. . .等等，因此一個理性的消費者應該將所有因素均納入消費的考量中。
基於消費平滑（consumption-smoothing）與�痡`所得假說（permanent income hypothesis）的觀點，我們依循 Ghosh（1995a）的方法來估計一國的經常帳，且將〝貨幣〞加入跨期經常帳的研究之中，用以解釋理論與實際經常帳間的關係，來探討總體經濟因素中〝貨幣〞所扮演的重要性；並且依據 Diebold and Mariano（1995）中所介紹的預測能力檢定方法，試圖比較模型的樣本外預測能力。
　　本文針對加拿大、日本、美國及英國等四個主要工業化國家進行研究，並加入〝貨幣〞作為探究其經常帳表現的關鍵性要素之一。根據所得到的實證結果顯示，不僅僅是如同傳統文獻所強調的國民現金流量（national cash flow；即國內生產毛額減去投資及政府支出），且於本研究中所新加入的貨幣存量均反映出它們對於經常帳的影響力，甚至，貨幣存量在本文的延伸方法�堨蝘篝t著銓釋傳統理論所無法解釋的一個決定性角色。
　　整體而言，這四大工業化國家的經常帳在面對國民現金流量及貨幣存量的變動時，的確能夠扮演一個平滑消費的緩衝器。而在樣本外預測準確性的比較上，預測的結果顯示本文的檢定程序具有不錯的檢力，有助於研究者選擇適當的模型設定或預測方法。

“Save for a rainy day”, a well known theory proposed in Campbell(1987), indicates that the current consumption depends on the rational prospect of future economy. Nevertheless, within a highly developed economy, individual’s consumption is often affected by various factors, for instance, the rate of time preference, interest rates and inflation, …etc. Therefore, a rational representative consumer should take all possible information available to them into consideration in making decisions regarding optimal consumption; meanwhile, this will in turn affects a country’s current accounts and domestic credit as well.
Based on the viewpoints of consumption-smoothing and permanent income hypothesis, we modify Ghosh(1995a)’s methodology to incorporate one of the most important macroeconomic variables, “money” into the intertemporal approach to the current account to explore its influence in explaining the difference between theoretically predicted and actual current accounts.
In this study, four major industrialized countries: Canada, Japan, the US and UK are investigated by adding money as one of the key elements in explaining their current accounts dynamics. According to the empirical findings, not only the national cash flow (output minus investment and government expenditure) as stated in the literatures but money stock also reflect their influential effects in determinating the dynamic behavior of current accounts also. Therefore, money dose play a crucial role in our extensive method in explaining what traditional method can not explain.
Further, we used six kinds of test which are introduced by Diebold and Mariano（1995）to compare which estimation model has better explaining power to forecast the actual current account.
As a whole, the current accounts of these four major industrialized countries indeed acts as a buffer to smooth consumption in facing fluctuations of shocks to national cash flow and money stock.

目錄

學位論文審定書 … … … … … … … … … … … … ….三
誌謝辭 … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … ..四
中文摘要 … … … … … … … … … … … … … … ...五
英文摘要 … … … … … … … … … … … … … … ...六
目錄 … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … .七
表目錄 … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … ..八
圖目錄 … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … ..十
第壹章、緒論 … … … … … … … … … … … … … ..1
第一節、前言 … … … … … … … … … … … … … .1
第二節、研究動機與目的 … … … … … … … … … … .8
第三節、論文架構 … … … … … … … … … … … ….10
研究流程圖 … … … … … … … … … … … … … ...11
第貳章、文獻探討 … … … … … … … … … … … ..12
第參章、理論模型 … … … … … … … … … … … ..20
第一節、傳統理論模型 … … … … … … … … … …...20
第二節、延伸之經常帳現值模型 … … … … … … … ..28
第三節、樣本外預測值的估計 … … … … … … … … .33
第肆章、實證研究方法 … … … … … … … … … … 35
第一節、單根檢定 … … … … … … … … … … … ….35
第二節、共整合檢定 … … … … … … … … … … …..41
第三節、向量自我回歸模型 … … … … … … … … … 44
第四節、因果關係檢定(Granger Causality Test) … …...46
第五節、Wald 檢定 … … … … … … … … … … ....48
第六節、預測模型的檢定 … … … … … … … … … … 50
第伍章、實證分析與結果 … … … … … … … … … … 56
第一節、實證資料之選取與處理 … … … … … … … ….56
第二節、實證結果分析：樣本內的配適 … … … … … … 59
第三節、實證結果分析：樣本外之預測 … … … … … … 69
第陸章、結論與建議 … … … … … … … … … … … .72
第一節、實證結論與貢獻 … … … … … … … … … .. 72
第二節、未來研究方向與建議 … … … … … … … … .75
參考文獻 … … … … … … … … … … … … … … .104
附錄 … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … …108

表目錄

表5.1 加拿大之單根檢定 … … …… … … … … … … … .76
表5.2 日本之單根檢定 … … … … … … … … … … …...77
表5.3 美國之單根檢定 … … … … … … … … … … … ..78
表5.4 英國之單根檢定 … … … … … … … … … … … ..79
表5.6 消費偏向效果的估計與檢驗 … … … … … … … … .80
表5.7 加拿大之單根檢定 … … … … … … … … … … ..81
表5.8 日本之單根檢定 … … … … … … … … … … …...82
表5.9 美國之單根檢定 … … … … … …… …… … … ....83
表5.4 英國之單根檢定 … … … … … … … … … … …...84
表5.10 VAR模型的選擇 … … … … … … … … … … … ...85
表5.11 最適落後期數的選擇 … … … … … … … … … … .85
表5.12 加拿大VAR之結果 … … … … … … … … … … … .86
表5.13 日本VAR之結果 … … … … … … … … … … … ...87
表5.14 美國VAR之結果 … … … … … … … … … … … ..88
表5.15 英國VAR之結果 … … … … … … … … … …… …..89
表5.16 貨幣效果… … … … … … … … … … … … … … 90
表5.17 傳統及延伸模型之Wald檢定實證結果 … … … … … .90
表5.18 樣本外區間估計之LR檢定 … … … … … …… … … .91
表5.19 加拿大傳統及貨幣模型樣本外預測能力比較之檢定 … ..92
表5.20 日本傳統及貨幣模型樣本外預測能力比較之檢定 … … .93
表5.21 美國傳統及貨幣模型樣本外預測能力比較之檢定 … … .94
表5.22 英國傳統及貨幣模型樣本外預測能力比較之檢定 … … .95























圖目錄

圖5.1加拿大在傳統及貨幣模型下-樣本內實際與預測經常帳之走勢圖 … … ..96
圖5.2日本在傳統及貨幣模型下-樣本內實際與預測經常帳之走勢圖 … … … .96
圖5.3美國在傳統及貨幣模型下-樣本內實際與預測經常帳之走勢圖 … … … .97
圖5.4英國在傳統及貨幣模型下-樣本內實際與預測經常帳之走勢圖 … … … .97
圖5.5加拿大在傳統及貨幣模型下-樣本外實際與預測經常帳之區間估計 … .. 98
圖5.6日本在傳統及貨幣模型下-樣本外實際與預測經常帳之區間估 … … … .99
圖5.7美國在傳統及貨幣模型下-樣本外實際與預測經常帳之區間估計 … … ..101
圖5.8英國在傳統及貨幣模型下-樣本外實際與預測經常帳之區間估計 … … .102

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