跳到主要內容

臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

(3.238.135.174) 您好!臺灣時間:2021/08/05 07:29
字體大小: 字級放大   字級縮小   預設字形  
回查詢結果 :::

詳目顯示

我願授權國圖
: 
twitterline
研究生:劉志誠
研究生(外文):Liu chih-cheng
論文名稱:應計項目與盈餘操弄可能性之關聯性研究-以台灣上市公司為例
論文名稱(外文):The Relation between Accruals and Probability of Earnings Manipulation - Listed Companies in Taiwan
指導教授:古永嘉古永嘉引用關係陳達新陳達新引用關係
指導教授(外文):Goo Yeong-JiaChen Dar-Hsin
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立臺北大學
系所名稱:企業管理學系
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:企業管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2007
畢業學年度:95
語文別:中文
論文頁數:60
中文關鍵詞:盈餘操弄可能性盈餘持續性盈餘品質
外文關鍵詞:probability of earnings manipulationearnings qualityearnings persistence
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:188
  • 評分評分:
  • 下載下載:0
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:2
本研究探討應計項目與盈餘操弄可能性之間的關係,利用Beneish (1997, 1999)的模型來估計操弄的可能性並檢驗此估計是否會改變當前盈餘與其組成之持續性及定價模型。本研究推測當前的盈餘極可能受到提升收益的操弄,而這將會導致未來低落的盈餘以及報酬績效。由於評估操弄可能性的模型仰賴公開資訊,且將應計項目視為預測變數,本研究檢驗(1)操弄的可能性是否能預測未來的報酬,以及(2)此二者間關係是否與應計項目的錯價有關。
本研究以我國前150大上市公司為研究對象,自台灣經濟新報社資料庫蒐集民國84年至94年,共470筆觀察值,採用Beneish & Nichols(2005)所發展之模式進行研究,以瞭解盈餘操弄可能性對於當期盈餘與應計項目盈餘持續性之影響及市場反應之效率性。
實證結果發現:第一,有越高可能操弄盈餘的廠商有較低的未來盈餘,但投資人預期這些廠商會有較高的未來盈餘,意味著投資人受到盈餘操弄的誤導。第二,本研究提出盈餘操弄的可能性是盈餘預測模型的遺漏變數,將操弄的可能性納入模型中能消除應計項目的錯價情形。
The paper examines the relation between the probability of manipulation, accruals, and future returns. we rely on work by Beneish (1997, 1999) to estimate
the probability of manipulation and examine whether this assessment alters the persistence and pricing implications of current earnings and its components. I conjecture that current earnings that have a high likelihood of income-increasing manipulation lead to poor future earnings and returns performance. Because the model for assessing the probability of manipulation relies on publicly available information, and includes accruals as a predictive variable, we assess (1) whether the likelihood of manipulation predicts future returns, and (2) whether this relation is distinct from accrual mispricing.
The samples selected in this study are the firm-year data of 47 companies traded on Taiwan Stock Exchange Corporation, including 470 firm-year observations. Data are collected from Taiwan Economic New Journal Database from 1995 to 2005. Following Sloan (1996) and Beneish and Nichols (2005), I use iterated seemingly unrelated regression to test whether Probability of Earnings Manipulation is informative about earnings quality, and compare the earnings forecasting coefficients with the market valuation coefficients to examine whether the market mispricing phenomenon exists.
The empirical results suggest the following. First, I show that firms that have a high likelihood of earnings manipulation experience lower future earnings. In contrast, we find that the market acts as if it expects these firms to have higher future earnings. Second, I show that the probability of manipulation is a correlated omitted variable for the earnings forecasting models used in prior research on accrual mispricing.
目次
目次 II
表次 III
圖次 IV
第一章 緒論......................................................1
第一節 研究動機與目的........................................1
第二節 研究問題 4
第三節 研究流程 5
第二章 文獻探討 7
第一節 應計項目與盈餘品質 7
第二節 財報比率與盈餘品質 15
第三章 研究方法 20
第一節 觀念性架構 20
第二節 研究假說 22
第三節 模型之建立 24
第四節 變數之定義與衡量 30
第五節 樣本選取與資料來源 35
第四章 實證結果與分析 37
第一節 敘述性統計 37
第二節 盈餘持續性與盈餘操弄可能性之資訊內涵分析 42
第三節 應計項目與盈餘操弄可能性之資訊內涵分析 46
第五章 結論與建議 50
第一節 結論 50
第二節 研究限制 52
第三節 後續研究建議 53
參考文獻 53
中文部份 54
英文部分 56
參考文獻
中文文獻
1.王勇勝(2003),內部關係人交易與盈餘品質之關連性暨市場反應效率性研究,國立台灣大學會計研究所未出版之碩士論文。

2.李銘家(2006),應計數可靠性與盈餘持續性及市場反應,私立輔仁大學會計學研究所未出版碩士論文。

3.李淑華(2003),產業價值鏈知識密度與企業績效,國立台灣大學會計研究所博士未出版論文。

4.金成隆、曹壽民(1999),「台灣上市公司盈餘/股價關聯性之研究」,中山管理評論,第七巻,第1期,pp.81-100

5.金成隆、鄭丁旺(1999),「持續性與非持續性盈餘反應係數之研究」,會計評論,第31期,pp19-42

6.林嬋娟、蔡彥卿與李文智(1993),「簡介盈餘資訊內涵」,會計研究月刊,第88期,pp.129-132。

7.林嬋娟、蔡彥卿與李文智(1993),「會計資訊與市場效率性之研究」,會計研究月刊,第90期,pp.59-63。

8.林坤霖(1995),下半年盈餘管理與年度盈餘資訊內涵關係之研究,國立政治大學會計研究所未出版之碩士論文。

9.馬鳳禧(2002),會計保守性對盈餘品質之影響及與股票報酬之關聯性,國立台灣大學會計研究所未出版之碩士論文

10.陳慧美(2004),盈餘管理與財務特性、股票報酬關連性之探討,國立中山大學財務管理研究所未出版之碩士論文。

11.張文瀞(2003),「本益比變動與盈餘管理」,當代會計,第四巻,第一期,pp.29-56。

12.張懿心(2000),現金流量與應計項目增額資訊內涵之研究,國立成功大學會計學研究所未出版碩士論文。

13.張天桂(2001),裁決性應計項目與股票報酬之關聯性,國立台北大學會計研究所未出版之碩士論文。

14.康榮寶(1997),「會計資訊應是財富重分配的重要工具」,會計研究月刊,第143期。

15.游淑婷(2005),應計項目評價分析—區分正負盈餘樣本,國立中山大學財務管理研究所未出版之碩士論文

16.馮志卿(1998),營運活動現金流量、應計項目、業外損益之盈餘持續性及市場效率,國立臺灣大學會計學研究所未出版碩士論文。

17.趙正源(2004),應計項目組成與股票報酬之關連性,私立輔仁大學會計學研究所未出版碩士論文。

18.潘麗芳(2000),會計盈餘因素增額資訊內涵及評價之研究,國立中正大學會計學研究所出版碩士論文。

19.賴梨雯(2005),應計數品質、盈餘品質與股票報酬之關連性研究,私立輔仁大學會計學系在職專班未出版碩士論文。

20.謝佩儒(2001),異常應計項目的迴轉性質與市場評價,國立成功大學會計學研究所未出版碩士論文。


英文文獻
1.Ali, A., L. Hwang, and M. Trombley (2000),”Accruals and Future Stock Returns: Tests of the Naïve Investor Hypothesis,” Journal of Accounting, Auditing and Finance, Vol.15, spring, pp.161-181.

2.Barth, M., and A. Hutton (2004),”Analysts’ Earnings Forecast Revisions and the Pricing Of Accruals,” Review of Accounting Studies, Vol.9, Mar., pp.59.

3.Beneish, M.D. (1997),”Detecting GAAP Violation: Implications for Assessing Earnings Management among Firms with Extreme Financial Performance,” Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, Vol.16, Mar., pp.271-309.

4.Beneish, M.D. (1999),”The Detection of Earnings Manipulation,” Financial Analyst Journal, pp.24-36.

5.Bernstein, L. (2000), Financial Statement Analysis, 7th ed., Homewood, IL: Irwin.

6.Bradshaw, M., S. Richardson, and R. Sloan (2001),”Do Analysts and Auditors Use Information in Accruals?” Journal of Accounting Research, Vol.39, spring, pp.45-74.
7.Beneish, M.D. (2001),”Earnings management: A perspective,” Managerial Finance, Vol.27, Oct., pp.3-17.

8.Beneish, M.D. and M. Vargus(2002),”Insider Trading, Earnings Quality, and Accrual Mispricing,” The Accounting Review, pp.755-791.

9.Beneish, M.D., C.M.C. Lee, and R. Tarpley(2001),”Contextual Fundamental Analysis through the Prediction of Extreme Returns,” Review of Accounting Studies, Vol. 6,Jun.-Sep.,pp.165.

10.Beneish, M. D. and D.C. Nichols (2005),” Earnings Quality and Future Returns: the Relation between Accruals and the Probability of Earnings Manipulation,” Working paper, Indiana University.

11.Bernard, V. L. and J. K. Thomas (1989),” Post – Earnings - Announcement Drift: Delayed Price Response or Risk Premium,” Journal of Accounting Research, Vol.27, Supplement, pp.1-36.

12.12、Burgstahler, D., J. Jiambalvo, and T. Shevlin2002),”Do Stock Prices Fully Reflect the Implications of Special Items for Future Earnings?” Journal of Accounting Research, Vol.40, Mar., pp.585-612.

13.Collins, D. W. and P. Hribar(2000),”Earnings-based and Accrual-based Market Anomalies: One Effect or Two?” Journal of Accounting and Economics, Vol.29, spring, pp.101-123.

14.Collins, D. W., and P. Hribar(2002),”Errors in Estimating Accruals: Implications for Empirical Research,” Journal of Accounting Research,Vol.40, Mar., pp.105-134.

15.Collins, D. W.,G. Gong, and P. Hribar(2003),” Investor Sophistication and the Mispricing of Accruals.” Review of Accounting Studies, Vol.8, Jun.-Sep., pp.251.

16.Chan, K., L. Chan, N. Jegadeesh, and J. Lakonishok (2006),”Earnings Quality and Stock Returns,” The Journal of Business (forthcoming).

17.Dechow, P. M. (1994),”Accounting Earnings and Cash Flows as Measure of Firm Performance: the Role of Accounting Accruals,” Journal of Accounting and Economics, Vol.18, spring, pp.3-42.

18.Dechow, P., and I. Dichev (2002),”The Quality of Accruals and Earnings: The Role of Accrual Estimation Errors,” The Accounting Review, Vol.77, Supplement, pp.35-59.

19.Desai, H., S. Rajgopal, and M. Venkatachalam (2004),”Value-Glamour and Accruals Mispricing: One Anomaly or Two?” The Accounting Review, Vol.79, April, pp.355-385.

20.Fairfield, P., W. Whisenant, and T. Yohn(2003),”The Differential Persistence of Accruals and Cash Flows for Future Operating Income versus Future Profitability,” Review of Accounting Studies, Vol.8, Sep.-Jun., pp.221.

21.Francis, J., R. LaFond, P. Olsson, and K. Schipper(2005),“The Market Pricing of Accruals Quality,” Journal of Accounting and Economics,

22.Freeman, R., J. Ohlson, and S. Penman (1982),” Book Rate-of-return and Prediction of Earnings Changes: An Empirical Investigation,” Journal of Accounting Research, Vol.20, spring, pp.3-42.

23.Hand, J. (1990),”A Test of the Extended Functional Fixation Hypothesis,”The Accounting Review, Vol.65, Apr., pp.740-763.

24.Khan, M. (2005), Are accruals really mispriced? , Working paper, University of Toronto.

25.Lev, B and D. Nissim(2004),The Persistence of the Accruals Anomaly, Working paper, New York University .

26.Mishkin, F (1983), A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconomics, Working paper , Chicago University of Chicago Press.

27.McNichols, M. (2000),”Research Design Issues in Earnings Management Studies,” Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, Vol.19, winter, pp.313-345.

28.Ou, J. A. and S. H. Penman (1989),” Accounting Measurement, Price-Earnings Ratio, and the Information Content of Security Prices,” Journal of Accounting Research, pp.111-44.

29.Penman, S. H. and X. Zhang (2002),”Accounting Conservatism, the Quality of Earnings, and Stock Returns,” Accounting Review, Apr., pp.237-264.

30.Richardson, S. A., R.G. Sloan, M. T. Soliman, and I. Tuna(2001),Information in Accruals about the Quality of Earnings, Working Paper.

31.Richardson, S., R. Sloan, M. Soliman, and I. Tuna (2004), Accrual Reliability, Earnings Persistence, and Stock Prices, Working paper, University of Pennsylvania.

32.Sloan, R.G.(1996),”Do Stock Prices Fully Reflect Information in Accruals and Cash Flows about Future Earnings?” The Accounting Review, Vol. 71, Jul., pp.289-315.

33.Schipper Katherine and Linda Vincent (2003),”Earnings Quality”, Accounting Horizons, pp.97-110.

34.Subramanyam, K. R.(1996),” The Pricing of Discretionary Accruals,” Journal of Accounting & Economics,Vol.22 ,Aug.-Dec.,pp.249-282

35.Tarpley, R. (2000),Profitability of Information Contained in the Accrual Component of Earnings, Working paper, Cornell University, Ithaca, N.Y.

36.Teoh, S.H., T.J. Wong, and G.R. Rao (1998),”Are Accruals during Initial Public Offerings Opportunistic?” Review of Accounting Studies, Vol.3, Spr.- Feb., pp.209-221

37.Thomas, J.K. and P.H. Zhang (2002),”Inventory Changes and Future Returns,” Review of Accounting Studies, Vol. 7, Jun.-Sep., pp.163-187.

38.Xie, H. (2001),”The Mispricing of Abnormal Accruals,” The Accounting Review, Vol.76, Jul., pp.357-373.
QRCODE
 
 
 
 
 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               
第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁 top