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研究生:吳榮平
研究生(外文):Zongping Wu
論文名稱:都市火災空間分布及發生因素之研究
論文名稱(外文):The Research on the Spatial Distribution and the Cause of Urban Fires
指導教授:錢學陶錢學陶引用關係
指導教授(外文):Hsuehtao Chien
學位類別:博士
校院名稱:國立臺北大學
系所名稱:都市計劃研究所
學門:建築及都市規劃學門
學類:都市規劃學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2007
畢業學年度:95
語文別:中文
論文頁數:244
中文關鍵詞:都市火災火災危險度地理資訊系統空間資料分析
外文關鍵詞:Urban FireFire RiskGISSpatial Data Analysis
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:20
  • 點閱點閱:1821
  • 評分評分:
  • 下載下載:217
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:4
本研究的主要目的,在透過火災的發生類型、空間分布以及相關社會經濟環境,以台北市為空間範圍,探討都市火災在空間規劃上的意涵。分析的資料係以公部門所公布的二手資料為主,運用地理資訊系統的空間分析模組,展示都市火災分布的空間型態以及空間變異。
火災資料取材自台北市行政轄區內,從1999年至2003年五年間的全部火災紀錄,利用地理資訊系統 (GIS) 的工具,套繪火災發生地點的空間分布位置,並建置相關的屬性資料,作為後續空間資料分析的基本資料結構。而聯合克利金模型的應用,結合空間資料相關的社會經濟變項,進一步探索台北市火災分布的空間型態,並推估台北市火災危險度的空間區位分布樣態,據以建置台北市火災風險潛勢圖,期能在都市規劃及災害預防行政方面,對市政的興革與市民生命財產安全的維護,有所助益。
審視火災危險度分析與都市空間規劃的關係,作為都市規劃師,面對充滿不確定性的都市火災危險度,在不同的族群與不同的都市空間中,潛在的火災危險度是不盡相同的。因此,本研究非僅只於提出理論分析架構,來呈顯都市火災危險度的樣態,也具體提出了改善都市火災危險度的空間規劃策略。在後續的研究建議中,也強調火災的空間特性,特別是關於人文區位環境、社區營造、以及人際關係的面向的探索,將可為都市火災研究發展出更周全的空間規劃內涵。
The key objective of the research was to analyze the nature of fire incidents by their type, by their spatial distribution, by their variable location, and by their relationship to the underlying socioeconomic composition of the population be served. The study area was Taipei City which was the major city of Taiwan with a population of over two million people. This research used the second-hand data of the spatial distribution of fire incidents occurred at Taipei City. A GIS was used to investigate the patterns of fire incidents by their type and by their spatial distribution in order to explore different behaviors or activities in urban substantial space structure.
This research reported the distribution, focus and feature of fire incidents occurred in recent five years by combining the value file of socioeconomic factors and GIS in Taipei City to reveal the fire incidents location. Taking that as a fundamental data, this research also made a spatial analysis on the variation of urban spatial phenomenon in Taipei City. A Co-Kriging model was used to explore the significance of each variable socioeconomic factor. The correlated rule was used to analyze the urban substantial space structure, explore the correlation between related factors and fire occurrence, and select variables being accomplished to realize the potential threat which caused the fire occurred in variable neighborhoods. A potential fire risk map in Taipei City was established and might be provided to the authority of Taipei City as useful reference for conducting various plans and programs.
The purpose of this research was to examine the correlation between the fire risk analysis and the urban space planning. The fire risk that everyone gets in touch with is different. The potential fire risk has difference because of the dissimilarity of the urban space characteristic in different location of urban. Due to the complexity on discussing fire risk in urban space, the research not only offers a theoretical result and establishes the basic data of shape of urban fire risk, but also proposes the relevant strategies for improving the fire safety environment. It also suggests the further studies on the human ecological environment, community empowerment and interpersonal relations should be conducted for more findings.
謝誌 I
中文摘要 II
英文摘要 III
目次 V
表目錄 VII
圖目錄 VIII
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 3
第二節 研究內容與範圍 7
第三節 研究方法與流程 10
第四節 研究架構與名詞界定 14
註釋 18
第二章 相關理論與文獻評析 19
第一節 都市系統與空間統計 19
第二節 都市的火災與危險度 28
第三節 相關文獻的探討與詮釋 38
第四節 研究取境與探討原則界定 46
第五節 小結 51
註釋 52
第三章 空間規劃理論模式之建立 55
第一節 空間理論 57
第二節 火災災例的空間分析 69
第三節 空間、規劃與火災危險度 79
第四節 都市火災的空間互動模式 85
第五節 小結 89
註釋 89
第四章 都市火災研究的命題、假設及研究設計 91
第一節 區位研究方法論之論證 92
第二節 命題推論 104
第三節 假設分析 106
第四節 研究設計 110
第五節 小結 118
第五章 都市火災的空間分析-以台北市為例 119
第一節 火災境況概述 120
第二節 火災實態分析 128
第三節 火災分布的空間型態 141
第四節 空間分布的區位分析 157
註釋 177
第六章 都市火災危險度的空間推估 179
第一節 火災空間分布模擬 180
第二節 火災發生機率預測 184
第三節 區位特性與火災危險度 186
第四節 空間組構與火災危險度 201
第五節 小結 207
註釋 209
第七章 結論與建議 213
第一節 研究結論 214
第二節 後續研究建議 226
註釋 227
參考書目 228
個人履歷 241
參考書目
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《學位論文》
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《研究報告》
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《季刊雜誌文章》
1.李達源、莊愷瑋 (2003),「應用地理統計界定污染場址中之污染範圍」,台灣土壤及地下水環境保護協會簡訊,台北:台灣土壤及地下水環境保護協會。
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6.Morris, Brian (1998), (王鵬智譯),「火災損失風險管理」,建築研究簡訊21期。

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60.Weber, Alfred (1929), Theory of the Location of Industries. The University of Chicago Press.
《Journals》
1.Ackerman, William V. and Murray, Alan T. (2004), Assessing spatial patterns of crime in Lima, Ohio. Cities, Vol.21 No.5:pp.423-437.
2.Banks, J. and Rardn, R.L. (1982), International Comparison of Fire Loss. Fire Technology, 18:268-279.
3.Batty, M. et al. (1999), Geographical Information Systems and Urban Design. Geographical Information and Planning, Springer.
4.Brunsdon, C. et al. (1998), Spatial Nonstationary and Autoregressive Models. Environment Planning, Vol. 30.
5.Chandler, S.E., et al. (1984), Fire Incidence Housing and Social Conditions – The Urban Situation in Britain. Fire Prevention, No.172.p.19.
6.Cloninger, Dale O. (1990), Arson and Abandonment: A Restatement. Journal of Risk and Insurance, Vol.62, No.3, p.p.540-545.
7.Cohen, Lawrence, and Marcus Felson (1979), Social Change and Crime Rate Trends: A Routine Activity Approach, American Sociological Review, 44, pp.588-608.
8.Duncanson, Mavis, et al. (2002), Socioeconomic Deprivation and Fatal Unintentional Domestic Fire Incidents in New Zealand 1999-1998. Fire Safety Journal 37 pp.165-179
9.Erickson, R. A., (1986), Multi-nucleation in metropolitan economies, Annals of the Association of American Geographers, Vol. 76:pp.331-346.
10.Fahy, F. Rita and Norton, Alison L. (1989), ‘How Being Poor Affects Fire Risk’, Fire Journal, Vol. 83(1), pp. 29-36.
11.Gould, Peter (1993), The Bronx: Proverty, Crack and HIV. The Slow Plague, Blackwell, pp.124-135.
12.Gunther, Paul (1981), Fire-Cause Patterns for Different Socioeconomic Neighborhoods in Toledo, OH. Fire Journal, Vol. 75 (May), pp. 52-58.
13.Hall, John R., and Sekizawa, Ai (1991), Fire Risk Analysis: General Conceptual Framework for Describing Models. Fire Technology, Vol. 27 (1), pp.33-53.
14.Holborn, P.G., et al. (2004), An Analysis of Fire Sizes, Fire Growth Rates and Times between Events Using Data from Fire Investigations. Fire Safety Journal 39, pp.481-524
15.Jennings, Charles R. (1998), Urban Fire Risk: Using GIS to Connect Fire, Census, and Assessor’s Data. Regional Science Review, Vol. 17.
16.Jennings, Charles R. (1999), Socioeconomic Characteristics and Their Relationship to Fire Incidence: A Review of the Literature. Fire Technology, Vol. 35, pp7-34
17.Karter, Jr. et al. (1978), The Effect of Demographics on Fire Rates., Fire Journal. Vol. 72, no 1, pp.53-65.
18.Kazarians, M., Siu, N.O. and Apostolakis, G. (1985), Fire Risk Analysis for Nuclear Power Plants: Methodological Developments and Applications. Risk Analysis, Vol. 5(1), pp.33-51.
19.Lam, Nina Sui-Ngan (1993), Spatial Interpolation Methods: A Review. The American Cartographer. Vol.10, No.2 pp.129-149.
20.Levin, Ned, et al. (1995), Spatial Analysis of Honolulu Motor Vehicle Crashes: Spatial Patterns. Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 27 No.5.
21.Ling, W.C.T. and Williamson, R.B. (1982), Using Fire Tests for Quantitative Risk Analysis. Fire Risk Assessment, ASTM STP 762, American Society Testing and Materials.
22.Manifold, T. (1999), Brigade links with Social Services in a bid to reduce fire fatalities. Fire, 92.
23.Meacham, Brian J. (2004a), Understanding Risk: Quantification, Perceptions, and Characterization. Journal of Fire Protection Engineering, 14, pp.199-227
24.Meacham, Brian J. (2004b), Decision-making for Fire Risk Problems: A Review of Challenges and Tools. Journal of Fire Protection Engineering, 14, pp.149-168
25.Munchnick, David M., et al. (1991), Expanding Coupled Shock Fronts of Urban Decay and Criminal Behavior: How U.S. Cities Are Becoming Out. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, Vol. 7.
26.Newman, Oscar (1995), Defensible Space. Journal of the American Planning Association, Vol.61.
27.Rasbash, D.J. (1984), Criteria for Acceptability for Use with Quantitative Approaches to Fire Safety. Fire Safety Journal, Vol. 8.
28.Ripley, B.D. (1976), The Second-order Analysis of Stationary Point Process. Journal of Applied Probability, 13.
29.Slovic, P. (1987), Perception of Risk. Science, Vol. 236.
30.Starr, C. (1970), Societal Benefit v.s. Technological Risk. Science, Vol. 165.
31.Sternlieb, George and Robert Burchell (1973), Fires in Abandoned Buildings. Fire Journal. Vol.67, no2, pp.24-31.
32.Strickland, B. (1987), Fire Risk Assessment. Fire Command, August and September.
33.Tobler, W.R. (1970), A Computer Movie Simulating Urban Growth in the Detroit Region. Economic Geography, 46.
34.Watts, John M Jr. (1998), Life safety as a design parameter. Fire Technology, Vol. 34, No. 2, Quincy, National Fire Protection Association.
35.Wallace, Rodrick (1981), Fire Service Productivity and the New York City Fire Crisis: 1968-1979. Human Ecology, Vol.9, No.4
36.Wider, M.G., (1985), Site and Situation Determinants of Land Use Change: an Empirical Example, Economic Geography, 61(4): p.p.332-344.
37.Wilson, W. (1887). The Study of Administration. Political Science Quarterly, 2(2): pp.197-222.
38.Yang, Lizhong et al. (2002), Fire Situation and Fire Characteristic Analysis Based on Fire Statistics of China’, Fire Safety Journal, 37, pp.785-802
《Research Reports》
1.Anselin, L. (1989), What is Special About Spatial Data? Alternative Perspectives on Spatial Data Analysis. Santa Barbara, CA: National Center for Geographic Information & Analysis.
2.Bertrand, Alvin L., and McKenzie, Lawrence (1976), The Human Factors in High Fire Risk Urban Residential Areas: A Pilot in New Orleans, Louisiana. Washington, D.C.:U.S. Department of Commerce, National Fire Prevention and Control Administration.
3.Clarke, Fredric B., et al. (1990), A Method to Predict Fire Risk: The Report of the National Fire Protection Research Foundation Risk Project. Report to the National Fire Protection Research Foundation (N.F.P.R.F.), Quincy, Massachusetts: N.F.P.R.F.
4.DHSS (1982), Fire Safety Evaluation (Points) Scheme for Patient Area within Hospitals. Department of Fire Safety Engineering, University of Edinburgh
5.Helzer, S.G., Buchbinder, B. and Offensend, F.L. (1979), Decision Analysis of Strategies for Reducing Upholstered Furniture Fire Losses. NBS Technical Note1101, Washington: National Bureau of Standards.
6.Jennings, Charles R. (1996), Urban Residential Fires: An Empirical Analysis of Building Stock and Socioeconomic Characteristics for Memphis. Tennessee. Unpublished Doctoral Thesis, Cornell University.
7.Munson, Michael (1977), Residential Fires and Urban Neighborhood: An Empirical Analysis of Charlotte, North Carolina. Unpublished Doctoral Thesis, Princeton University.
8.N.S.W.F.B. (1997), Socio-Economic Characteristics of Communities and Fires. New South Wales Fire Brigades Statistical Research Paper, New South Wales Fire Brigades (N.S.W.F.B.), ISBN 0 7310 3460 . Issue 4/ 97 (June 1997).
9.Swartz, J.A. et al. (1983), Final Technical Report on Building Fire Simulation Model. Quincy, Massachusetts: National Fire Protection Association(N.F.P.A.)
10.U.S.F.A. (1999), Profile of the Urban Fire Problem in the United States. Technical Report Series, Federal Emergency Management Agency, United States Fire Administration (U.S.F.A.).
11.U.S.F.A. (1997a), Fire Death Rate Trends: An International Perspective. Technical Report Series, Federal Emergency Management Agency, United States Fire Administration (U.S.F.A.).
12.U.S.F.A. (1997b), Socioeconomic Factors and the Incidence of Fire. Technical Report Series, Washington, D.C.: Federal Emergency Management Agency, United States Fire Administration (U.S.F.A.).
13.U.S.F.A. (1998), An NFIRS Analysis: Investigating City Characteristics and Residential Fire Rates. Technical Report Series, Washington, D.C.: Federal Emergency Management Agency, United States Fire Administration(U.S.F.A.)
《Proceedings of Symposium》
1.Barry, Thomas F. (1995), Fire Risk Based Decision Making for Plant Facilities and Operations. Technical Symposium: Applications of Probabilistic Risk Assessment to Fire Problems. Fairfax.
2.Kasperson , R.E. et al. (1982), Determining the Acceptability of Risk: Ethical and Policy Issues. Proceedings of Risk: A Symposium on the Assessment and Perception of Risk to Human Health in Canada, Royal Society of Canada.
3.Sekizawa, A. and Jin, T. (1988), Fire Risk Evaluation Method for Multi-Occupancy Buildings. The Proceedings of the 9th Joint Panel Meeting of the UJNR Panel on Fire Research and Safety, N.B.S.I.R. 88-3753, Gaithersburg, Maryland: National Bureau of Standards.
4.Tanaka, T. (1988), Basic Structure of the Evacuation Safety Design Method. The Proceedings of the 9th Joint Panel Meeting of the UJNR Panel on Fire Research and Safety, N.B.S.I.R. 88-3753, Gaithersburg, Maryland: National Bureau of Standards.
5.Tsujimoto, M. and Shida, K. (1991), An Estimation Method on Life Risk in Case of Hospital Fires. The Proceedings of the 10th Joint Panel Meeting of the UJNR Panel on Fire Research and Safety, Tsukuba, Japan: Building Research Institute.
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