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研究生:李佳怡
研究生(外文):Chia-yi Lee
論文名稱:後冷戰時期影響國際恐怖主義發生因素之探討─應用事件史分析法之研究
論文名稱(外文):A Study on the Factors Affecting International TerrorismOccurrence in the Post Cold War Era─An Application of Event History Analysis
指導教授:黃旻華黃旻華引用關係
指導教授(外文):Min-Hua Huang
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立臺灣大學
系所名稱:政治學研究所
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:政治學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2007
畢業學年度:95
語文別:中文
論文頁數:150
中文關鍵詞:國際恐怖主義恐怖事件事件史分析法風險率Cox共享脆弱性模型
外文關鍵詞:international terrorismterrorist eventsevent history analysisCox shared frailty modelhazard rate
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  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:1
本文的研究目的在於利用事件史分析法找出後冷戰時期影響國家發生國際恐怖主義的主要因素,研究的時間範圍是1992年至2002年。利用ITERATE資料庫中這段時間的資料,本文建立了假設國家間有差異性的Cox共享脆弱性模型,估計各個因素對國際恐怖主義事件發生風險率的影響程度,並進一步將事件畫分成不同種類的恐怖活動,運用同樣的模型來檢視之,除了各項因素的影響力外,也探討國際恐怖事件在時間上的變化。
結果發現影響國家發生國際恐怖主義的因素主要有三個,分別是民主程度、中東地區與否、失業率,三者都對恐怖主義的風險率有正向影響力。此外,若將所有國際恐怖事件依攻擊手段和活動方式的不同,又可分成人質事件、爆炸事件、武裝攻擊事件、劫機事件、暗殺事件和威脅事件六大類,分別受不同因素所影響,其中影響人質事件最主要的因素是民主程度、失業率和種族齊一性;影響爆炸事件的因素則是都市化程度、國家硬體能力和陸地面積;而武裝攻擊事件則易發生在都市化程度較低和雖民主但尚不穩定的國家;至於和劫機事件的風險率有負相關的因素是國家硬體能力,正相關的則是人口和陸地面積;暗殺事件易發生在GDP成長率低、失業率高的國家;威脅事件則受民主程度和中東地區的正向影響。
此外,除了人質事件外,其餘五項事件多半集中在冷戰後三、四年,之後幾年的事件數則相對較少。而實際檢視資料後則發現,前幾年的事件數攀高是來自於特定恐怖團體所為,或是來自冷戰餘波的政治影響,而隨著冷戰的氣氛逐步消解、和平氛圍漸長,以及部分恐怖團體和政府和談成功後,恐怖事件在後幾年則顯著較少且較隨機。
The purpose of this paper is applying event history analysis to finding out the factors which affect international terrorism occurrence in the post cold war era. The observed time is from 1992 to 2002. Using ITERATE data set during this period, this paper builds Cox shared frailty models, which assume that there are differences between countries, and estimates the effects of factors on the hazard rates of international terrorism occurrence. Furthermore, terrorism events are classified into six types and Cox shared frailty models are used to estimate the effects of different factors on them. Besides, the variations of the numbers of international terrorism events over time are considered in this paper.
The result shows that there are three factors affecting international terrorism occurrence, including democratic degrees, middle-east countries, and unemployment rates. These three factors have positive effects on the hazard rates of international terrorism occurrence. Moreover, according to incident types, terrorism events are classified into hostage events, bombing events, armed attack events, hijacking events, assassination events, and threat events, and the factors affecting these six events are different. There are three factors affecting hostage events, including democratic degrees, unemployment rates and ethnic homogeneities. Bombing events are affected by urbanization degrees, national material capabilities and land areas. Armed attack events occur in countries with low urbanization and unstable democracy more probably. National material capabilities have negative effects on hijacking events, but land areas and populations have positive effects on them. Assassination events occur in countries with low GDP growth rates or high unemployment rates more possibly. Threat events are affected by democratic degrees and middle-east countries positively.
Finally, most events occurred during the first three or four years after the end of cold war except for hostage events, and the numbers of events declined afterwards. According to the data, the fact that events occurred mostly during early years in the post cold war era comes from specific terrorist organizations or the political aftermath of cold war, and because the atmosphere of cold war went down, peaceful atmosphere increased, and some terrorist groups negotiated with countries successfully, the numbers declined in the late years.
第一章 緒論.…………………………………………………………………… 1
第一節 研究動機………………………………………………………………… 1
第二節 研究目的……………………………………………… 4
第三節 概念界定……………………………………………… 5
第四節 章節安排……………………………………………… 11
第二章 文獻探討……………………………………………… 13
第一節 影響恐怖主義發生之因素…………………………… 13
第二節 恐怖主義的量化研究………………………………… 23
第三節 不同種類之恐怖活動………………………………… 28
第四節 小結……………………………………………… 32
第三章 研究設計和方法……………………………………… 34
第一節 研究架構及研究假設………………………………… 34
第二節 研究方法……………………………………………… 49
第三節 資料來源與研究範圍………………………………… 60
第四章 資料分析和研究發現………………………………… 63
第一節 資料處理與描述……………………………………… 63
第二節 初步研究結果………………………………………… 70
第三節 研究結果之分析……………………………………… 81
第五章 分類恐怖活動之特性………………………………… 87
第一節 各類事件模型分析結果……………………………… 88
第二節 各類事件之動態性…………………………………… 105
第三節 綜合比較……………………………………………… 120
第六章 結論與展望………………………………………… 127
第一節 研究發現……………………………………………… 127
第二節 研究貢獻……………………………………………… 131
第三節 研究限制與展望……………………………………… 133
第四節 政策建議……………………………………………… 135

參考文獻………………………………………………………… 138
附錄 後冷戰時期發生國際恐怖主義國家和編碼…………… 147
一、中文部分
江啟臣,2005,〈APEC架構下反恐議題發展之研究〉,《政治科學論叢》,第25期,頁29-66。
杜素豪、黃俊龍譯,2001,《事件史分析》,Kazuo Yamaguchi原著,臺北:弘智文化。
李偉等編,2002,《恐怖主義與反恐怖鬥爭理論探索》,北京:時事。
吳南宗,2003,《台商赴大陸間接投資之台灣母公司經營績效研究-以事件史分析法》,義守大學管理科學研究所91學年度碩士論文。
林佳旻,2005,《影響現任立法委員連任因素之事件史分析:1992~2004》,國立中正大學政治學研究所93學年度碩士論文。
陸軍聲,2003,《不對稱戰爭概念的建構─「槓桿原理的觀點」》,國防管理學院國防決策科學研究所91學年度碩士論文。
張中勇,2002,〈國際恐怖主義的發展與演變〉,《戰略與國際研究》,第4卷,第1期,頁1-58。
張五岳、李華球,2003,〈全球化下的反恐趨勢與兩岸民間交流〉,收錄於李英明主編,《第三屆兩岸遠景論壇:全球化趨勢下的反恐與兩岸關係學術研討會論文集》,台北市:財團法人兩岸交流遠景基金會,頁317-348。
張舜芬,2005,《誰是恐怖主義?當恐怖主義遇上反恐戰爭》,Jonathan Barker原著,臺北:書林出版。
陳維富,2002,《國際恐怖主義之研究-兼論九一一事件對中美交往戰略之影響》,國立東華大學大陸研究所90學年度碩士論文。
游寶珠,2001,《恐怖主義與國際法》,國立海洋大學海洋法律研究所89學年度碩士論文。
楊永明,2003,《國際安全與國際法》,臺北:元照出版有限公司。
廖育德,2005,《台灣上市上櫃電子業廠商首次投資中國大陸行為之動態研究──事件史分析法之應用》,國立成功大學都市計劃學系碩博士班93學年度碩士論文。
繆宏昌,2003,《恐怖主義與現代戰爭》,國立政治大學外交學系戰略與國際事務碩士在職專班91學年度碩士論文。
謝豐安、吳福生譯,2001,《恐怖主義威脅與美國政府的回應》,Janes M. Smith & William C. Thomas編,臺北市:史政編譯室。
薛承泰,1993,〈「事件時序分析法」(Event History Analysis)簡介〉,《人口研究通訊》,第14期,頁18-24。
蕭曦清,2003,《中東風雲》,台北市:牧村圖書。

二、英文部分
(一)專書及專書論文
Allison, Paul D.. 1984. Event History Analysis: Regression for Longitudinal Event Data. Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage Publications.
Brannan, David W.. 2006. “Left- and Right-wing Political Terrorism.” in Andrew T.H. Tan ed., The Politics of Terrorism: A Survey, pp. 55-72. London; New York: Routledge.
Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M. & Bradford S. Jones. 2004. Event History Modeling: A Guide for Social Scientists. Cambridge; New York: Cambridge University Press.
Bremer, Stuart A.. 1980. “National Capabilities and War Proneness.” in J. David Singer ed., The Correlates of War, pp. 57-82. New York: Free Press.
Cleves, Mario A.; William W. Gould & Roberto G. Gutierrez. 2004. An Introduction to Survival Analysis Using Stata. College Station, Tex.: Stata Press, c2004.
Clutterbuck, Richard L.. 1994. Terrorism in an Unstable World. London; New York: Routledge.
Combs, Cindy C.. 1997. Terrorism in the Twenty-First Century. Upper Saddle River, N.J.: Prentice Hall, c1997.
Cragin, Kim & Peter Chalk. 2003. Terrorism & Development: Using Social and Economic Development to Inhibit a Resurgence of Terrorism. Santa Monica, CA: Rand, c2003.
Crenshaw, Martha. 1992. “Decision to Use Terrorism: Psychological Constraints on Instrumental Reasoning.” in Donatella della Porta ed., International Social Movement Research: Social Movements and Violence: Participation in Underground Organizations, Volume 4, pp. 29-42. Greenwich, CT and London: JAI Press Inc.
Crenshaw, Martha. 1998. “The Logic of Terrorism: Terrorist Behavior as a Product of Strategic Choice.” in Walter Reich ed., Origins of Terrorism: Psychologies, Ideologies, Theologies, States of Mind, pp. 7-24. Washington, DC: Woodrow Wilson Center Press.
De Sola, Ralph. 1982. Crime Dictionary. New York, N.Y.: Facts on File.
Enders, Walter & Todd Sandler. 2006a. The Political Economy of Terrorism. Cambridge; New York: Cambridge University Press.
Frey, Bruno S.. 2004. Dealing with Terrorism: Stick or Carrot? Cheltenham, UK; Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar.
Gochman, Charles S. & Zeev Maoz. 1990. “Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1816-1976.” in J. David Singer & Paul F. Diehl ed., Measuring the Correlates of War, pp.193-221. Ann Arbor: The University of Michigan Press.
Heymann, Philip B.. 2003. Terrorism, Freedom, and Security: Winning without War. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, c2003.
Horgan, John. 2005. The Psychology of Terrorism. London; New York: Routledge.
Laqueur, Walter. 1977. Terrorism. Boston: Little, Brown, c1977.
Long, David E.. 1990. The Anatomy of Terrorism. New York: Free Press; Toronto: Collier Macmillan Canada; New York: Maxwell Macmillan International, c1990.
Martin, Gus. 2003. Understanding Terrorism: Challenges, Perspectives, and Issues. Thousand Oaks: Sage Publications, c2003.
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Post, M. Jerrold. 1998. “Terrorist Psycho-logic: Terrorist Behavior as a Product of Psychological Forces.” in Walter Reich ed., Origins of Terrorism: Psychologies, Ideologies, Theologies, States of Mind, pp. 25-40. Washington, DC: Woodrow Wilson Center Press.
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(二)期刊文章
Barros, Carlos Pestana & Isabel Proenca. 2005. “Mixed Logit Estimation of Radical Islamic Terrorism in Europe and North America: A Comparative Study.” Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 49, No. 2 (April, 2005), pp. 298-314.
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Blomberg, S. Brock; Gregory D. Hess & Akila Weerapana. 2004. “Economic Conditions and Terrorism.” European Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 20, Issue 2 (June, 2004), pp. 463-478.
Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M. & Bradford S. Jones. 1997. “Time is of the Essence: Event History Models in Political Science.” American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 41, No. 4 (Oct., 1997), pp. 1414-1461.
Box–Steffensmeier, Janet M.& Christopher Zorn. 2002. “Duration Models for Repeated Events.” Journal of Politics, Vol. 64, Issue 4 (Nov., 2002), pp. 1069-1094.
Bueno de Mesquita, Ethan. 2005. “The Terrorist Endgame: A Model with Moral Hazard and Learning.” Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 49, No. 2 (April, 2005), pp. 237-258.
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Eldor, Rafi & Rafi Melnick. 2004. “Financial Markets and Terrorism.” European Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 20, Issue 2 (June, 2004), pp. 367-386.
Enders, Walter & Todd Sandler. 1993. “The Effectiveness of Antiterrorism Policies: A Vector-Autoregression- Intervention Analysis.” The American Political Science Review, Vol. 87, No. 4 (Dec., 1993), pp. 829-844.
Enders, Walter & Todd Sandler. 1999. “Transnational Terrorism in the Post-Cold War Era.” International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 43, No. 1 (Mar., 1999), pp. 145-167.
Enders, Walter & Todd Sandler. 2000. “Is Transnational Terrorism Becoming More Threatening? A Time-Series Investigation.” Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 44, No. 3 (Jun., 2000), pp. 307-332.
Enders, Walter & Todd Sandler. 2002. “Patterns of Transnational Terrorism, 1970–1999: Alternative Time-Series Estimates.” International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 46, No. 2 (Jun., 2002), pp. 145-165.
Enders, Walter & Todd Sandler. 2005a. “After 9/11: Is It All Different Now?” Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 49, No. 2 (Apr., 2005), pp. 259-277.
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Marshall, Monty G. & Keith Jaggers. 2002. “Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2002 Dataset Users'' Manual.” Retrieved September 18, 2006, from http://www.cidcm.umd.edu/inscr/polity/showFiles.asp.
Mickolus, Edward F.; Todd Sandler; Jean M. Murdock & Peter Fleming. 2004. International Terrorism: Attributes of Terrorist Events, 1968-2002 (ITERATE 3). Dunn Loring, VA: Vinyard Software. Retrieved January 6, 2006, from http://www.columbia.edu/cgi-bin/eds/datagate.pl?C1385-3.
United States Department of State(2006.8.10),http://www.state.gov/s/ct/rls/pgtrpt/.
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