跳到主要內容

臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

(34.204.169.230) 您好!臺灣時間:2024/02/21 23:51
字體大小: 字級放大   字級縮小   預設字形  
回查詢結果 :::

詳目顯示

我願授權國圖
: 
twitterline
研究生:黃昭頴
研究生(外文):Jhao-Ying Huang
論文名稱:論民營化公股釋出最適比例與時機之決策─成本效益分析與實質選擇權方法之應用
論文名稱(外文):On the Optimal Floatation Ratio and Timing of Releasing State-owned Stocks: A Dual Consideration of Cost-benefit and Real Option Analysis
指導教授:徐中琦徐中琦引用關係
指導教授(外文):Jonchi Shyu
學位類別:博士
校院名稱:國立臺灣科技大學
系所名稱:企業管理系
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:企業管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
畢業學年度:95
語文別:中文
論文頁數:101
中文關鍵詞:民營化成本效益分析實質選擇權
外文關鍵詞:privatizationcost-benefit analysisreal option analysis
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:2
  • 點閱點閱:262
  • 評分評分:
  • 下載下載:0
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:0
本研究分別採用成本效益分析法及實質選擇權方法建構兩個模型,用以進一步求算在社會福利極大化下,部份民營化之公股釋出最適比例與最適時機。
公營事業在民營化過程中,將有三種社會福利的影響:消費者剩餘之變動、民營後事業體績效提昇之影響及政府售出股權之收入影響。而其中民間持股與剩餘公股比例之結構,直接影響該事業體經營績效的提昇與否;因此,本研究建構已釋出公股、擬釋出公股比例與成本比率降低額的函數關係,並透過政府資金乘數與私人資金乘數將三種影響轉換成對社會福利的變動值;據此可以推導出民營化事業體在各已釋出公股比例、稅後盈餘與目前股價下,得出該階段擬釋出的最適比例。由本研究模型推論結果,可以得出一個估算公股最適釋出比例的模式與判斷再釋股與否的準則。
另外,本研究在模式化民營後績效改善程度的不確定性、股價不確定性及公司營業收入的不確定性,並透過複合彩虹選擇權的概念,建構可找出最適釋股時機的實質選擇權模式。
透過中華電信、中國鋼鐵等案例的試算亦證實這兩個模式的可應用性。輔以釋出公股決策準則的判斷,決策者可以得到在目前股價下是否應繼續釋股、釋出多少比例、何時釋出等答案。政府可以依此模式,先行預估完全民營後技術效率的改善程度,便可按上述步驟得出釋股與否與釋股最適比率幅度,作為民營化政策之參考。
同時我們發現:(1) 釋股的關鍵在於釋出價格與釋出後期待的效率增進間的相對大小,這兩因素間的抵換關係使得在釋股過程得以存在一個最釋比例。(2) 公營事業民營化除了股權移轉的過程外,尚須輔以移轉後的企業改革與管理等相關的永續計劃,當下釋股才具有未來正當性的基礎。公股管理得視產業實際狀況,政府應有售出、延後售出、事業體組織重整等的多重考量。綜合言之,在不同階段的公股管理,政府宜依社會福利考量,客觀地評量其民營化決策。
This study adopts the cost-benefit analysis method and the real option method to construct two models, and further determines under the maximization of social welfare, the optimal ratio and time of state-owned stock floatation for public enterprises undergoing partial privatization.
A public enterprise, during the process of privatization, will have three effects on social welfare: change in consumer surplus, improvement in business performance after privatization, and change in fiscal revenue when the government sells the stock holdings. A public enterprise, during the process of privatization, will have three effects on social welfare: change in consumer surplus, improvement in business performance after privatization, and change in fiscal revenue when the government sells the stock holdings. The study transfers the three effects on social welfare through the shadow multiplier on government funds and the shadow multiplier on private funds into the effect on social welfare. In light of this, the optimal ratio of state-owned stock floatation in different stages can be inferred under released public shares, after-tax income and current share price for privatized enterprises.
Moreover, after modeling three uncertainties from improved performance’s degree of the privatized enterprise, the stock price and the operating revenue, the study constructs the real option model. Using the model, the optimal floatation timing of state-owned stock can be found.
Through the calculation of case examples which the Chunghwa Telecom Company and China Steel Corporation, the applicability of such two models can be verified. It is also conducted the criterion of the released public shares, the policy-maker could obtain the answer under the current stock price whether the released public shares should be carried on, how many proportions should be released, when it be released. Through this model, the government could estimate the improvement degree of the technical efficiency after privatization in advance, pursuant to the above-mentioned procedure to make a decision whether state-owned stock is released or not and the range of the optimal ratio. It takes reference for the policy of the privatization
Two additional findings are: 1) The key to stock floatation lies in the relative proportion of release price to the expected increase in efficiency after release. The trade-off relationship between these two factors reserves the existence of one optimal ratio during the stock floatation process. 2) For public enterprise privatization, in addition to the share ownership transfer process, a sustainable plan that acts like an aid for enterprise reform and management after the transfer is necessary. Such a plan will play an important role for future justification of current stock floatation. The government should consider the multiple facets of selling, delayed selling, and enterprise reorganization. In summary, for the management of public shares at different stages, the government should objectively evaluate its decision of privatization by taking into account the social welfare changes.
第壹章 動機及緣起 1
1.1 研究背景 2
1.2 研究目的 5
1.3 研究架構 6
第貳章 文獻探討 8
2.1 民營化理論 8
2.1.1 部份民營化 8
2.1.2 民營化之實證研究 11
2.1.3 社會福利最大化之民營化研究 12
2.1.4 民營化後之剩餘公股管理政策 16
2.2 實質選擇權之理論 18
第參章 公股分階段最適釋出比例 20
3.1 原始民營化公式之經濟詮釋 20
3.1.1 公式推導 20
3.1.2 公式的經濟意涵 22
3.1.3 原始公式的限制 24
3.2 民營化公式之修正 25
3.2.1 民營化公式之修正─分階段釋股觀點 25
3.2.2 福利最適均衡條件之推導 29
3.3 分階段釋股之經濟詮釋 32
3.3.1 社會福利變動值函數的經濟意涵 32
3.3.2 福利最適條件之詮釋 35
3.3.3 再釋出公股之決策準則 41
3.3.4 不同民營化階段之討論 42
3.4 個案解析 44
3.4.1 案例一:中華電信公司 46
3.4.2 案例二:中國鋼鐵公司 49
3.4.3 釋出公股決策準則之檢驗 52
第肆章 公股最適釋出時機 56
4.1 實質選擇權之應用 56
4.2 模型建構 58
4.2.1 第一階段之釋股 58
4.2.2 第二階段之釋股 64
4.2.3 第三階段之釋股 67
4.3 實質選擇權在民營化政策上的解析應用 68
4.4 個案釋例 68
4.4.1 個案背景及模式架構 69
4.4.2 實質選擇權架構 75
4.4.3 各節點計算結果與最佳決策 75
第五章 結論與建議 91
5.1 最適釋出比例模式 91
5.2 最適釋出時機模式 92
5.3 後續建議 94
參考文獻 95
附錄A 政府資金乘數與私人資金乘數的估算 99
1.江淑貞、張玉山、曾美君,「承銷方式與民營化釋股之研究」,管理學報,18(1),第135~152頁,民國90年3月。
2.吳壽山等,民營化後公股持有政策之研究─台電、中油、中華電信的個案分析,行政院經濟建設委員會委託,民國88年6月。
3.張玉山,江淑貞,「民營化對事業單位經營績效之影響」,證券市場發展季刊,11(2),第175~178頁,民國88年。
4.許和鈞等,民營化國營企業公股投資效益之分析,行政院研考會委託,民國92年2月。
5.薛琦,「民營化後事業公股股權及經營權管理之政策與規劃」,公營事業民營化及公股股權及經營權管理研討會,民國87年。
6.陳威光,選擇權理論、實務與應用,智勝文化,民國90年。
7.張清溪等著,經濟學理論與實務,民國84年。
8.Barclay, M.J., & C.G. Holderness, “Private benefits from control of public corporations,” Journal of Financil Economics, 25, pp.371-395(1989).
9.Bortolotti, B., M. Fantini & C. Scarpa, “Why do governments privatize abroad?” International Review of Finance, 3:2, pp.131-161(2002).
10.Bös, D., Privatization: A Theoretical Treatment, Oxford University Press(1991).
11.Boubakri, N., & J.-C. Cosset, “The financial and operating performance of newly privatized firms: evidence from developing countries,” The Journal of Finance, LIII(3), pp.1081-1110(1998).
12.Boubakri, N., & J.-C. Cosset, “Dose privatization meet the expectations? Evidence from African countries,” Journal of African Economics, pp.111-140(2003).
13.Browning, E.K., “On marginal welfare cost of taxation,” The American Economic Review, 77(1), pp.11-23(1987).
14.Copeland, T. & V. Antikarov, Real Options: A Practitioner’s Guide, TEXERE LLC(2000).
15.Dewenter, K. & P. H. Malatesta, “State-owned and privately-owned firms: an empirical analysis of profitability, leverage and labor intensity,” American Economic Review, 91, pp.320-334(2001).
16.D’Souza, J. & W. L. Megginson, “The financial and operating performance of newly privatized firms in the 1990s,” Journal of Finance, 54, pp.1397-1438(1999).
17.Gupta, N., “Partial privatization and firm performance,” The Journal of Finance, LX(2), pp.987-1015(2005).
18.Jones, L.P., P. Tandon & I. Vogelsang, Selling Public Enterprise, MIT Press, Cambridge(1990).
19.Kulatiaka, N. & E. Perotti, “Strategic growth options,” Management Science, Vol.44, No.8, pp.1021-1031(1998).
20.Megginson, W.L., The Financial Economics of Privatization, Oxford University Press, New York(2005).
21.Megginson, W.L., R.C. Nash & M.V. Randenborgh, “The financial and operating performance of newly privatized firms: an international empirical analysis,” The Journal of Finance, XLIX(2), pp.403-452(1994).
22.Shyu, J. & J.-Y. Huang, “The economic interpretation of privatization: an optimal floatation ratio of state-owned stock,” Canadian Journal of Administrative Sciences, 23(3), pp.221-236(2006).
23.Trigeorgis, L., Real Option-Managerial Flexibility and Strategy in Resource Allocation, MIT Press, Cambridge(1996).
24.Trigeorgis, L., Real Options, MIT Press, Cambridge(1998).
25.Vickers, J. & G. Yarrow, Privatization: An Economic Analysis, MIT Press, Cambridge(1988).
26.Wang, G., “A real option framework for evaluating infrastructure investments,” Working Paper(1996).
27.Yang, F.-J., S. Wu & J.-Y. Hwang, “The optimal ratio of releasing public shares in partial privatisation policy: the case of China Steel Corporation in Taiwan,” Asia Pacific Journal of Finance, 1(1), pp.61-86(1998).
QRCODE
 
 
 
 
 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               
第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁 top