臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

(一)在國際資本流動的問題中，最常被討論的即是熱錢(一般指短期銀行借貸和證券投資)於國際間游移對世界各國金融市場所造成的影響。凡舉1982年的墨西哥金融危機至1997年的亞洲金融風暴，均與國際熱錢的大量流入有著相當程度的關連。雖然資本的流動會帶給新興市場衝擊，但新興市場若可仿效先進國家加強進行金融及體制改革，以降低國際資本移動波動性所帶來的衝擊，方能真正享受全球資本移動所帶來之利益。

國際資本流動對新興國家經濟情況具有放大效應之效果。對特定金融市場的良好改革成效，會增加投資，故有加分放大的效果，但對市場的不良政策也會減少投資，予以懲罰反應，使不良措施之衝擊成本更為增加。故每一個新興市場政府均應致力於藉良好之政策，來吸引更多國際資本流入。本研究將以1990年代中期迄今，世界主要工業化國家資金大量流入新興國家之證券市場投資的角度來出發，探討定檢討自2000年以來國際游資的移動方向，且分析國際游資的湧入對亞洲股票市場所產生之衝擊與影響效果為何？
本研究先利用向量自我迴歸模型(VAR model)來檢視歐美股市與亞洲股市間交易量之變化情形，考慮台灣外資投入股市之金額，以釐清國際游資的移動方向外，亦考慮國內自營商於股市之進出及台灣實質匯率對國際金融移動進而對股市之影響。再經由誤差修正模型
(Error Correct Model)了解台股、美股、外資與實質匯率間之長期關係。

根據本文VAR模型，美國股價報酬率對台、日、韓之股價報酬具有顯著正的影響。台灣股價報酬率對國內自營商之買(賣)超具有單向正的影響。而外資影響台股，台股再影響台幣實質匯率，再經由實質匯率吸引外資買(賣)超，因而形成了一個良性迴圈。台灣實質匯率與在台外資買(賣)超具有相互回饋的關係。而從衝擊反應函數及變異數分解中我門亦發現，以台股波動為例，除台股本身因素，主要國外因素係美股之波動。以台灣為例，發現台指、美指、台灣實質匯率具有一階共整合級次之現象。


(二)本文主要將中國近年內發展之中小企業融資制度與整體概況作詳細的探討，在進入90年代之後，中小企業不論在經濟改革或經濟發展中所展現的作用逐漸受到中國政府的重視。有鑒於此，將中國中小企業發展的基本狀況作一整理，指出中國中小企業信貸融資困難的存在性，以及政府對於中小企業發展所提供的支持項目。

除了檢視幾個主要以發展國家中小企業信用保證體制制度建立之外，對於他們的政府相關單位與相關制法單位在協助中小企業取得融資方面，以及如何透過中小企業發展單位之各項貸款計畫與輔導措施和相關法規的制定都一併的做出整理，目的都是來協助中小企業能順利取得資金並健全發展。

是故本研究的主要目的為透過剖析他國中小企業融資與信用保證之運作經驗，探討中國中小企業在中小企業融資以及信用保證制度建立與發展的研究。中國經濟發展目前所遭遇之問題，有許多是其他已發展國家早已經歷之過程，檢視這些國家信用保證的制度發展，應可獲得不少啟示。基於以上的述敘，本文擬檢視中國中小企業融資體系與信用保證體系的變革與發展，並分析發展中的問題，希望作為台商和中國中小企業融資相關問題的參考。

(I)Dealing with the international capital circulation, the hot money (meaning short-run bank loans and portfolio investments) movements among countries of the world is a subject of interest to scholars. The Mexican financial crisis of 1982 and the Asian financial crisis of 1997 are the notable examples of the impact of hot money inflow. Although the capital mobility will impact the emerging markets, the emerging markets will reduce the impact of the hot money that volatilities and obtain the benefits, if they can follow the financial reforms of the developed countries.

International capital mobility has enlarging effects on the emerging markets. Good reform effects on specific financial markets will increase the investments; however, the bad policies will reduce the investments and increase the influence costs in other financial markets. Each government of the emerging markets should be devoted to making good managing polices to attract the international capitals to invest into its financial markets. Therefore, the discussion will begin by considering how the hot money of developed countries flows into the emerging stock markets from the middle of 1990. Then we will demonstrate the movement directions of hot money and analyze the impact that the hot money from the developed countries flows has on the Asian stock markets.

In this study, we employ the vector autoregression model (VAR model) to examine the relationships among the U.S. stock market, Asian stock markets, and the International Capital Flow in Taiwan. The institutional investment and the real exchange rate have been taken into consideration as well. Finally, using the Error Correction model, the relationships among Taiwan stock market, U.S. stock market, foreign capital flow, and real exchange rate will be investigated. According to VAR, U.S. stock returns do positively affect the stock market in Asia. Taiwan’s stock returns influence the domestic institutional investment only in a one-way direction. In addition to the influences of foreign capital flow on Taiwan stock returns, Taiwan stock returns affect real exchange rate, which in turn attracts foreign capital to flow in. There are feed back effects between the real exchange rate and foreign capital in Taiwan. Further inspection reveals that the impulse reaction function, U.S. stock returns, and the real exchange rate are verified, as well as the existence of long-run relationships among Taiwan stock returns.



(II)The purpose of this thesis is to conduct a study on the overall finance condition of small businesses in People’s Republic of China during this few years. In 1990s, the small-and-medium enterpruses (SMEs) played an important role in their economic reform and development. Due to the fact of the statement of SMEs, this study examines the difficulties in obtaining bank financing and points out the items of loans that government support.

This paper focuses on the systems of establishing the credit guarantee in the main developed countries, and the significance of their governments and how related laws and regulations have provided assistance to SMEs are discussed.

In order to investigate and analyze the loans systems for SMEs and the systems of establishing on credit guarantee in China, this paper discusses the experience by analyzing and comparing with other countries’. The matters of economic development that China is encountering right now are almost histories of other development countries’. Therefore, the study on these SMEs finance and credit guarantee systems may help China to get improved from those experience. Based on the account above, the article is planned to survey the recent transition and development of China SMEs finance system and the content of credit guarantee system ,even the relative issues for offering business men from Taiwan and reference on those points.

Chapter One Introduction………………………………………………………2
Chapter Two Development retrospect of foreign capital in Taiwan……5
Chapter Three Literature Review…………………………………………………14
Chapter Four Data, Model setting and empirical method………………15
4.1 Vector Autoregressive Model………………………………………15
4.2 Co-integration and Error Correction Model…………………18
Chapter Five Empirical Result & Analysis………………………………21
5.1 Main Findings………………………………………………21
5.2 Suggestion……………………………………………………25

Reference…………………………………………………………………27
Table 2.1: History of Taiwan’s Legalization of Foreign Capital to Invest into Domestic Securities………………………………8
Table 2.2: Highlights of Foreign Investment in Taiwan’s Stock Market.........12
Appendix……………………………………………………………………………29
Table.1 ADF Unit Root Test (I)…………………………………………29
Table.2 ADF Unit Root Test (II)………………………………………29
Table.3 Estimation results of VAR Model……………………………30
Table.4 Analysis of Variance Decomposition………………………31
Table.5 Analysis of Cointegration……………………………………31
Chart.1 Analysis of Impulse reaction function…………………32




第一章 緒論………………………………………………………1
第一節 研就動機與目的…………………………………………1
第二節 研究方法與架構…………………………………………4

第二章 文獻回顧…………………………………………………7
第一節 中小企業之定義…………………………………………7
第二節 中小企業信用保證制度之文獻回顧……………………9

第三章 主要國家與地區之中小企業信用保證制度介紹…‧…21
第一節 韓國信用保證制度………………………………………22
第二節 日本中小企業融資體系…………………………………31
第三節 歐盟中小企業融資體系…………………………………37
第四節 美國中小企業融資體系…………………………………46
第五節 台灣中小企業融資體系…………………………………50

第四章 中國中小企業融資信用保證發展現況………………………62
第一節 中小企業發展現況……………………………………………………62
第二節 中小企業融資現況……………………………………………………68
第三節 中小企業融資信用保證發展情況……………………………………86

第五章 結論與建議…………………………………………………97
參考文獻………………………………………………………………102

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網站：
Korea Credit Grarantee Fund (KCGF)，韓國信用保證基金 http://www.kcgf.co.kr/english/korean/definition.jsp。
Korea Technology Credit Guarantee Fund (KOTEC)，韓國技術信用保證基金
http://www.kotec.or.kr/。
The Statistical Office 韓國全國統計局，
http://www.nso.go.kr/eng/index.html/。
Japan Finance Corporation for Small and Medium Enterprise (JASME) 日本中小企業金融金庫，http://www.jasme.go.jp/。
National Life Finance Corporation (NLFC) 日本國民生活金融金庫，
http://www.kokukin.go.jp/index.html/。
Shoko Chukin Bank 日本商工組合中央金庫，
http://www.shokochukin.go.jp/。
European Investment Fund 歐洲投資基金，
http://www.eif.org/。
European Investment Bank 歐洲投資銀行，
http://www.eib.org/。
Small Business Administration 美國中小企業處，
http://www.sba.gov/。
Association of Small Business Development Centers 美國中小企業發展中心，
http://www.asbdc-us.org/。
日本中小企業廳，http://www.chusho.meti.go.jp/。
日本全國信用金庫協會，http://www.shikin.org/。
台灣中小企業信用保證基金網站，http://www.smeg.org.tw/。
中國中小企業信息網，http://www.sme.gov.cn/。
中國中小企業法律網，http://www.smelaw.com.cn/。
中國中小企業融資網，http://www.cnsmef.com/。
中國信用信息網，http://creditinfo.com.cn/。
中國鄉鎮企業信用信息網，http://credit.cte.gov.cn/。
信用中國網，http://ccn86.com/。