臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究旨在建構一個相對簡單的模型，著重在所得分配是否影響1981-2005年台灣地區醫療保健支出的成長。其一方面，醫療保健支出是維持健康的重要投入要素，而購買或使用醫療保健支出的代價，除了健康及疾病風險的影響之外，則深受所得水準高低的影響。但另一方面由於醫療需求為對健康需求的延伸需求，並不會直接帶給民眾效用，因此所得並未必會對醫療保健支出有顯著的影響，其影響值得進一步去研究。

本研究擬利用單根檢定(unit root test)、共整合(cointegration)、及複迴歸分析(multiple regression analysis)等計量方法來分析醫療保健支出與所得分配的關聯性，並且探討其因果關係。

本文實證發現：1. 老年人口比率對醫療保健支出成長影響程度相當高，係數為2.54~2.85，假設其他情況不變，老年人口比率提高對醫療保健支出成長甚大，其經濟意義為老化人口比率的彈性為2.8451，也就是說老年人口比率每增加1％，則HCE會成長2.54~2.85％的幅度。2. 自1995年3月開始實施全民健康保險制度之後，全民健康保險制度之實施對醫療保健支出成長並無顯著影響，此外，無論以戶數五等分位組之平均每戶可支配所得或吉尼係數衡量所得分配，皆得到得分配與醫療保健支出之間並無顯著關聯之結論。

This paper aims to develop a relatively simple model focusing on income distribution to explain the growth of the health care expenditure in Taiwan from 1981 to 2005. Health care expenditure is the key input to maintain health. In addition to health and disease risks, personal income plays an important role in influencing the cost to purchase and use health care. On the other hand, the medical demand is extended from the demand for health and does not bring people direct efficiency benefits. Income does not necessarily have a remarkable effect on health care expenditure, which is worth further study.
This research uses the unit root test, co-integration, multiple regression analysis, and some econometric methods to analyze and discuss the association between health care expenditure and income distribution.
This empirical study reveals the following: (1) the aging population ratio is quite high to the health care expenditure growth influence, the coefficient is 2.54~2.85, the supposition other situations are invariable, the aging population ratio enhances to the health care expenditure grows really in a big way, its economical meaning for the aging population ratio elasticity is 2.8451. In other words, the aging population ratio increases 1% every time, then HCE can grow 2.54~2.85% scope. (2) Started from March, 1995 implemented national health insurance system, implementation of national health insurance system to the health care expenditure growth appears insignificant. In addition, whether average disposable income per household by disposable income quintile or Gini’s concentration coefficient obtained assignment, all obtain the conclusion that the association between income distribution and health care expenditure is insignificant.

第一章 緒論1
第一節 研究背景 1
第二節 研究動機與目的 3
第三節 論文架構 5

第二章 文獻探討 6
第一節 國內文獻 6
第二節 國外文獻 9

第三章 研究方法 15
第一節 單根檢定 15
第二節 共整合檢定 19
第三節 複迴歸分析 22
第四節 結構性改變檢定 29

第四章 實證結果 32
第一節 資料敘述 32
第二節 變數說明與預期 33
第三節 實證結果 37

第五章 結論與建議 52
第一節 研究結論 52
第二節 未來展望 53

參考文獻 55

表 3-1 迴歸變異數分析表 28
表 4-1 變數定義及說明 33
表 4-2 台灣地區醫療保健統計:1981-2005年 35
表 4-3 模型一 VIF檢定結果 38
表 4-4 模型一 台灣地區醫療保健支出迴歸結果 39
表 4-5 模型二 VIF檢定結果 41
表 4-6 模型二 台灣地區醫療保健支出迴歸結果 41
表 4-7 ADF 檢定表 47
表 4-8 PP 檢定表 48
表 4-9 KPSS 檢定表 49
表 4-10 模型一 Engle-Granger共整合檢定結果 50
表 4-11 模型二 Engle-Granger共整合檢定結果 51


圖 目 錄
圖 1-1全民健保前我國醫療保健支出財務結構 3
圖 1-2全民健保後我國醫療保健支出財務結構 3
圖 4-1各變數之Line Graph 44
圖 4-2各變數經一階差分後之Line Graph 45

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