臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究的重點放在計劃評核術中的作業時間分配與預期時間下其專案完工機率。在研究中，我們首先將常見的作業時間分配與其機率密度函數整理出來，而後，我們考慮在高標準與低標準的情況下，其專案應該在什麼時間完工，才能符合我們所訂的標準。在本研究中，我們將低標準設為25%；高標準設為75%，希望所擬定之時間，需符合我們所訂定標準。
本研究建立一套方法，在考慮低標準或高標準時，找出其最少的趕工時間，讓專案在預期時間下的完工機率能符合我們所訂的標準。主要是利用中央極限定理，將專案的路徑視為常態分配，去推估專案在預期時間下的完工機率，而由於要徑支配專案的完工時間，所以，專案在預期時間下的完工機率往往是以要徑在預期時間下的完工機率做代表。
本研究發現當趕工過後，有新的要徑產生時，由於要徑間變異數的大小不同，需評估是否需要進一步趕工，特別的是，當我們是採取低標準時，當新的要徑是變異數較小，我們必需再進一步趕工；但若是採取高標準時，當新的要徑是變異數較大時，我們才需要再進一步的趕工。
本研究將以兩個例子去說明這個方法是如何進行的，及高低標準會對要徑選擇上的影響。

The study of PERT has concentrated in the areas of activity time distributions and the probability that a project can be completed within a specified duration. In this research, we first examine several activity time distributions and their probability density functions. We then consider the situation when a project is to be completed within desired time duration with both low and high expectations. In this research we use 25% chance of project completion before the desired time as low expectation. On the other hand, we use 75% chance of project completion before the desired time as high expectation.
By Using the Central Limit Theorem and by tracing the occurrence of critical paths, we develop an approach that will allow us to determine the minimum amount of crash time that will meet project completion time with either low expectation or high expectation.
It is noted that the occurrence of new critical paths that have different variance often requires repeated evaluation leading to more crashing time. Specifically, while using the low expectation, new critical path with lower variance will lead to more crash time. On the other hand, when high expectation is adopted, new critical path with higher variance will lead to more crash time.
Two numerical examples are used to illustrate this developed approach and the effects of low expectation and high expectation.

中文摘要...........................................................i
英文摘要...........................................................ii
誌謝................................................................iii
目錄................................................................iv
表目錄..............................................................vi
圖目錄..............................................................vii
第一章 緒論
1.1 研究背景.....................................................1
1.2 研究動機.....................................................2
1.3 研究目的.....................................................3
1.4 研究流程.....................................................3

第二章 文獻探討
2.1 專案管理.....................................................5
2.1.1 專案的定義.............................................5
2.1.2 專案的特性.............................................7
2.2 專案常用的技術...............................................8
2.2.1 甘特圖法 (Ganett Chart) ...............................9
2.2.2 要徑法 (CPM) ..........................................10
2.2.3 計劃評核術 (PERT) .....................................11
2.2.4 要徑法(CPM)與計劃評核術(PERT)的比較....................16
第三章 研究方法
3.1 專案作業時間的機率分配......................................17
3.1.1 均勻分配...............................................17
3.1.2 Beta分配...............................................18
3.1.3 三角形分配.............................................19
3.1.4 常態分配...............................................20
3.2 中央極限定理................................................22
3.3 趕工時間需求計算............................................23
3.3.1 低標準(25%)對要徑選擇的影響............................24
3.3.2 高標準(75%)對要徑選擇的影響............................25
3.3.3 要徑選擇規則...........................................26
3.4 趕工策略的擬定..............................................30
第四章 研究範例
4.1 流程說明.....................................................32
4.2 範例說明.....................................................34
4.2.1 低標準機率門檻(25%)趕工策略擬定........................35
4.2.2 高標準機率門檻(75%)趕工策略擬定........................39
4.3 結論整理....................................................42

第五章 結論與建議
5.1 研究結論.....................................................44
5.2 後續研究建議.................................................45

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期刊論文
[17] Abbasi G. Y. and Mukattash A. M. "Crashing PERT networks using mathematical programming," International Journal of Project Management, Vol. 19,2001,pp.181-188.
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[19] Fitzsimmons, James and Mona Fitzsimmons, Service Management: Operations,Strategy, and Information Technology, 2nd Edition, Boston: Irwin/McGraw Hill,1998,chapt.8: Managing Service Projects, pp.28-35.
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學位論文
[34] 吳崑霖，運用計畫評核管理（PERT/CPM）改進台北市都市細部計畫通盤檢討案業務之研究，碩士論文，國立交通大學交通運輸研究所，民70
[35] 吳啟榮，電腦模擬於營建工程專案排程之應用，碩士論文，國立台灣大學土木工程學研究所，民85。
[36] 徐建智，專案管理要徑法中逐步遞減與全面遞減在時間成本抵換之比較，碩士論文，國立台北科技大學商業自動化與管理研究所，民91
[37] 許聖傑，模糊計劃評核術之研究， 碩士論文，東海大學工工所，民84
[38] 馮信雄，以簡易風險概念分析營建工程作業工期不確定性之研究，碩士論文，中華大學營建管理研究所，民91。
[39] 蔡國展，模糊多準則計劃評核術及其在高科技專案管理之應用，碩士論文，華梵大學工業管理研究所，民88。
[40] 陳俊達，電廠機組大修專案排程管理之研究，碩士論文，國立成功大學工學院工程管理碩士在職專班，民92。