臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

彈道飛彈具有射程遠、速度快與優異的突穿能力，針對戰略或戰術性目標實施攻擊，未來台海一旦爆發戰爭，中共可能使用彈道飛彈攻擊我方機場跑道，取得制空優勢進而發動下一波攻勢，以達成奪取台灣之企圖。
本研究運用蒙地卡羅模擬法，模擬彈道飛彈攻擊機場跑道，以彈著點的圓形散佈誤差及彈坑半徑為主要模擬參數，結合初始暫態與終止模擬，將模擬數據以趨勢線分析，建立機場跑道毀損評估迴歸模式，藉以描述該跑道的毀損狀況；另模擬彈道飛彈截斷機場跑道，以彈著點的圓形散佈誤差及戰機最小起降帶面積為主要模擬參數，計算截斷機場跑道機率，研究結果期能提供機場指揮官及空軍決策高層參考，以提升機場跑道遭攻擊之存活率，進而迅速且有效的恢復機場跑道運作，確保我空軍戰機順利升空迎敵，保衛台海安全。

The ballistic missile has the capabilities with the properties of long-distance, high-speed, and excellent penetration to attack the strategic and tactical targets. Once the war breaks out across the strait in the future, the enemy may adopt the ballistic missile to attack the airport runways to obtain the mastery of the air and proceed to the next attack for seizing Taiwan.
This research presents a runway damage assessment under the attack of ballistic missiles by using the Monte Carlo simulation. The circular error probability (CEP) of the impact point and the crater radius are the primary parameters used in the simulation process. By combing the initial unit-step response with the terminal condition of simulation, the assessment model is proposed to evaluate the runway damage. The situation of the runway being cut off under the attack of ballistic missiles is also simulated. The circular spread error of the impact point and the least airstrip area are the primary parameters in the simulation to calculate the probability of the runway being cut off. The simulation results can provide the reference for the ground personnel in the logistic support and runway maintenance. Therefore, the runway can be restored rapidly to enhance the survival rate under attack. The air fighter can take off successfully to combat for the safety of Taiwan and the peace across the strait.

誌謝 ii
摘要 iii
ABSTRACT iv
目錄 v
表目錄 vii
圖目錄 viii
符號說明 x
1.緒論 1
1.1研究動機與目的 1
1.2文獻回顧 2
1.3論文架構 3
2.彈道飛彈介紹 5
2.1彈道飛彈 5
2.1.1彈道飛彈的演進 5
2.1.2彈道飛彈的彈道及分類 5
2.1.3彈道飛彈結構 6
2.2中共彈道飛彈對我威脅 10
2.2.1中共的傳統彈道飛彈系統 15
2.2.2中共彈道飛彈的主要研發方向 18
2.2.3二砲部隊 18
3.彈道飛彈攻擊機場跑道損害評估模式建立 22
3.1系統模擬 22
3.1.1模擬的運用 23
3.1.2模擬的基本方法 24
3.1.3模擬的程序 25
3.1.4模擬的優缺點 25
3.1.5模擬的條件 26
3.2損害評估模式建立過程 27
3.2.1模擬參數選擇 27
3.2.2彈著點分佈 29
3.2.3破壞面積分析 30
3.2.4數值模擬分析 33
3.3判斷初始暫態 37
3.4終止模擬 40
3.5機場跑道截斷機率運算 44
4.模擬結果與討論 49
4.1終止模擬結果 49
4.2截斷機場跑道模擬結果 59
5.結論 64
5.1研究成果 64
5.2未來研究方向 64
參考文獻 66
自傳 69

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