臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本文目的在檢驗我國地方政府之財政赤字與政府支出間的關係是否為正相關，亦即檢驗我國地方政府財政情況是否符合布坎南–華格納假說（Buchanan-Wagner hypothesis）。採用追蹤資料誤差修正模型（panel error correction model）針對台灣地區23個縣市1993至2006年資料，進行實證分析以檢驗是否符合布坎南–華格納假說。
模型變數包括：總政府支出、稅入占支出份額、所得和20歲以上人口數等四個變數。首先進行追蹤資料單根檢定，結果發現所有變數皆具有單根現象；然後進行追蹤資料共整合檢定，結果顯示變數間存在長期關係；最後使用追蹤資料誤差修正模型進行實證分析，發現稅入占支出份額顯著且負向的影響政府支出，隱含財政赤字與政府支出間具有顯著正向相關，故實證結果說明我國地方政府財政狀況符合布坎南–華格納假說。

The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between local government deficits and local government expenditures in Taiwan, using panel error correction model framework to test the validity of the Buchanan-Wagner hypothesis for 23 city and county governments in Taiwan over the period 1993-2006.
Variables in the empirical model include total government expenditures, the ratio of total government tax revenues over total government expenditures, income and the adult population. We find that government expenditures, the ratio of total government tax revenues over total government expenditures, income and adult population are all unit series and there is a long run equilibrium relationship among them. The empirical result shows that the local government deficits have a significantly negative impact on the local government expenditures. The empirical evidence supports for BW hypothesis.

摘要 i
Abstract ii
目錄 iii
圖表目錄 iv
第一章 緒論
第一節 研究背景 1
第二節 研究動機與目的 6
第二章 文獻回顧
第一節 財政收支關係之台灣實證 9
第二節 布坎南–華格納假說 14
第三節 布坎南–華格納相關文獻 15
第三章 實證方法
第一節 實證模型 21
第二節 追蹤資料單根檢定 25
第三節 追蹤資料共整合檢定 28
第四節 追蹤資料向量誤差修正模型 29
第四章 實證分析
第一節 資料來源及處理 31
第二節 追蹤資料單根檢定結果 34
第三節 追蹤資料共整合檢定結果 37
第四節 PECM實證分析結果 40
第五章 結論與建議 45
參考文獻 52

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