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研究生:林律安
研究生(外文):Lyu-An Lin
論文名稱:配電系統中期負載預測之研究
論文名稱(外文):A Study on Distribution System Mid-term Load Forecasting
指導教授:卓明遠
指導教授(外文):Ming-Yuan Cho
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立高雄應用科技大學
系所名稱:電機工程系博碩士班
學門:工程學門
學類:電資工程學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2008
畢業學年度:96
語文別:中文
論文頁數:94
中文關鍵詞:配電系統負載預測
外文關鍵詞:Distribution systemLoad Forecasting
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本論文探討台電公司配電系統中期負載預測模式,並檢討及適當修正負載預測流程跟方法,建立修正後中期負載預測模式,以及使用模糊理論在小區域負載預測上建立小區域負載預測FUZZY模式。
在中期負載預測方面,我們針對台電現行中期負載預測分析與檢討並提出改善方法建立修正後中期負載預測流程。過程中我們將不必要的變電所年增率計算步驟刪除,對於各供電區域每年年增率都不變的問題將以計量經濟迴歸模型加以修正改善,並透過負載轉供最佳分配使的供電區域內變電所利用率提昇。
在小區域負載預測方面,參考台電停限電運轉圖資系統(簡稱OMS)及用戶資訊系統(簡稱CIS),分析小區域的接近因素與周圍因素作為土地成長計分的輸入變數,透過FUZZY模式推估未來住宅用戶、商業用戶、工業用戶的土地成長,進而計算出負載成長。
最後以台電鳳山區處作為中期負載預測最小平方法的測試區域,完成整個預測過程。此外並以四維變電所附近的圖幅做為小區域負載預測的模擬區域。
This thesis propose about the mid-term load forecasting model of distribution system and revise the procedures for building a suitable load forecasting model in Taiwan Power Company. In this procedure, the FUZZY model also applied for this pattern which is corrected in this mid-term load forecasting model.
This thesis first analysis and review the procedure in this model which is using in Taiwan Power Company. The next, we delete the unnecessary step about the calculation of the increase of distribution station. By using the econometric regression model of the fixed increase rate per year in power supply area to improve this model. The usability of the distribution substation also promoted by using the load transfer technology in order to make the best distribution.
To analysis the proximity factors and the surrounding factors as the input variable of the value which is the growth of area by refer to the OMS(Outage Operation Mapping System) and the CIS(Customer Information System) in small area load forecasting. By using the fuzzy model to get the area growth of the user with domiciliary, business and industrial, then moreover to calculate the increase of load.
Finally, in order to verify the model’s procedure, the FongSan Area distribution business center’s district is applied for the recursive least-squares estimation in the mid-term load forecasting model. Additionally, the neighborhood of the Sihwei distribution substation also simulated in this small area load forecasting.
目錄
摘要
ABSTRACT
圖目錄
表目錄
第一章 緒論
1.1研究背景與動機
1.2 文獻回顧
1.3 論文架構
第二章 台電配電系統中期負載預測方法分析與改良
2.1台電業務處高雄區處負載預測流程
2.2 負載預測流程方法之檢討
2.3 中期負載預測改善策略
2.3.1 計量經濟迴歸模型
2.3.2 負載轉供最佳分配
第三章 小區域負載預測FUZZY模式之建立
3.1 模糊理論
3.2 小區域負載預測FUZZY模式
第四章 模擬與預測結果
4.1 各變電所計量經濟迴歸模型預測結果
4.1.1 資料的整理與分析
4.1.2 各變電所年增率預測結果
4.1.3 變電所負載預測結果
4.1.4 負載轉供最佳分配結果
4.1.5 變電所負載預測表的製作
4.2小區域負載預測FUZZY模式預測結果
4.2.1 住宅用戶FUZZY模式
4.2.2 商業用戶FUZZY模式
4.2.3工業用戶FUZZY模式
4.2.4預測結果
第五章 結論與未來展望
5.1結論
5.2未來研究方向
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