在不斷創新的商業競爭模式中，新產品的銷售預測就格外受到重視。根據Rogers(2003)的說法，擴散是個過程，即在一定時間內，社會體系中的成員藉由特定管道，傳播關於某項創新的訊息。本研究採用Bass擴散模式和次級資料來進行銷售預測分析。因為服務業的高重複購買率，解除Bass模型的重複購買限制，探討3G和PHS手機門號的通信服務擴散。研究結論發現：
1.此一模型具有解釋能力，能幫助通信服務業進行銷售預測和分析。
2.PHS和3G手機門號的創新採用者是受大眾傳播媒體的影響。
3.PHS門號使用者有較高的重複購買率
4.未來3G門號的潛在消費者較多

In the commercial competition way innovating constantly, the sales forecast of the new products is extremely paid attention to. According to Rogers(2003) "Diffusion is the process by which an innovation is communicated through certain channels over time among the members of a social System. This research adopts Bass model and secondary data to forecast sales and analysis. Because the high repeated purchase rate of the service trade, the restriction of repeated purchase is removed Bass model to probe into the diffusion of the communication service of 3G and PHS.
Study the conclusion to find:
1.This model has ability of explaining, can help the communication service trade to carry on sales forecast and analyses.
2.Innovative adopter of PHS and 3G are affected by mass media.
3.PHS user has purchase rate of higher repetition.
4.There are more potential consumers of 3G in the future.

中文摘要 i
英文摘要 ii
誌謝 iii
目錄 iv
表目錄 vii
圖目錄 viii
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 通訊服務業發展現況 3
1.2.1 產業概述 3
1.2.2 新技術的發展 3
1.2.3 行動通信服務市場概況 4
1.3 研究目的 7
1.4 研究流程 8
第二章 文獻探討 9
2.1創新與擴散 9
2.1.1 擴散之定義 9
2.1.2 創新之定義 10
2.1.3 創新採用者的分類 11
2.2一般化Bass擴散模型 15
2.3Bass模型的擴散與延伸 20
2.3.1 動態擴散模型 21
2.3.2 附屬性擴散模型 21
2.3.3 時間與空間的擴散模型 22
2.3.4 多代擴散模型 22
2.3.5 多重階段擴散模型 22
2.3.6 加入行銷組合的擴散模型 23
2.3.7 以產品或市場特性為基礎的擴散模型 23
2.3.8 產品供給有限制的擴散模型 24
2.3.9 多重採用擴散模型 24
第三章 研究方法 25
3.1研究架構 25
3.2擴散模式建立 26
3.2.1 Bass基本擴散模式 26
3.2.2 加入重複購買變數之擴散模式 27
3.3參數估計方法 28
3.3.1. 無歷史資料估計法 28
3.3.2. 有歷史資料估計法 29
3.4模型估計準則 31
3.4.1. Theil不等係數u* 31
3.4.2. 修正Theil不等係數u* 31
3.4.3. 平均絕對百分比誤差 32
3.5實證資料來源 33
第四章 結果與討論 34
4.1 3G手機門號之Bass擴散模型 34
4.1.1 參數估計 34
4.1.2 模型適配度分析 35
4.1.3 參數估計(第二次) 38
4.1.4 模型適配度分析(第二次) 39
4.2 PHS手機門號之Bass擴散模型 42
4.2.1 參數估計 42
4.2.2 模型適配度分析 42
4.2.3 參數估計(第二次) 46
4.2.4 模型適配度分析(第二次) 47
4.3實證研究的比較與發現 50
4.3.1 參數結果之比較 50
4.3.2 銷售量預測之比較 51
第五章 結論與建議 52
5.1研究結論 52
5.2研究限制 54
5.3後續研究之建議 55
參考文獻 56
附錄 60

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