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研究生:施甫學
研究生(外文):Shih, Fu Hsueh
論文名稱:高密度發展對房價之影響-以台北市為例
論文名稱(外文):The Impact of High Density Development on Housing Prices─ An example of Taipei City
指導教授:劉小蘭劉小蘭引用關係
指導教授(外文):Liu, Hsiao Lan
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立政治大學
系所名稱:地政研究所
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:公共行政學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2008
畢業學年度:96
語文別:中文
論文頁數:71
中文關鍵詞:高密度都市型態永續發展特徵價格法分量迴歸
外文關鍵詞:Urban Form of High Density DevelopmentSustainable DevelopmentHedonic Price TheoryQuantile Regression
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高密度發展的都市型態已成為世界各國為追求永續發展的都市規劃方式。對政策規劃者來說,他們關心的議題之一為高密度都市發展後房價的變動是否會影響居民對住的福利水準,過去文獻之實證研究亦發現高密度發展將產生房價上漲或下跌的效果,此引發本研究欲得知高密度指標對台北市房價將如何影響之動機。然而高密度都市發展政策的實施對各所得階層居民的影響為何若以普通最小平方迴歸分析將無法得知,所以本研究以分量迴歸進行分析,增加變數的可解釋能力。

因此本研究以台北市十二個行政區為空間範圍,利用民國九十三年至九十六年間共1268筆房屋交易實例案例,作為實證研究之樣本。主題變數方面以容積率、是否為住宅大樓及人口密度來分析各變數對房價之影響。藉由普通最小平方迴歸及分量迴歸分析結果發現,高密度之都市發展將造成住宅平均價格下跌,對中低總價住宅亦產生價格下跌的效果,因此高密度都市發展型態將增加居民福利水準,增進都市整體效益。
Nowadays, most nations in the world has thought of the urban form of high density development as a mean to pursue sustainable development. For policy planner, what they care is whether high density development would influence residents about the variation of welfare for living. Literatures of past empirical research also show that high density development will have the effects of rising or falling on housing prices, which leads to the motive of this study and also leads to a better understanding of how high density indicators would impact housing prices in Taipei City. However, what’s the impact for every income class through the implication of this urban development policy is impossible to know if we use OLS models, therefore, our study adopts Quantile Regression to enhance the interpretable abilities for every variable.

Accordingly, our study uses 1268 property-trading-records from 2004 to 2007 as samples, which all locate within 12 districts in Taipei City. We use floorage ratio, residential building and population density as main variables to analyze their impacts on housing prices. The result shows that high density development will both lead to falling of average housing prices and middle and low housing prices. Consequently, the urban form of high density development will enhance the level of residents’ welfare and improve the benefits for all urban area.
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 1
第二節 研究方法與範圍 4
第三節 研究架構及流程 5
第二章 文獻回顧 6
第一節 緊密都市 6
第二節 都市成長管制對住宅價格之影響 14
第三節 影響不動產價格之理論與特徵價格理論 21
第四節 分量迴歸 26
第三章 資料特性及模型建立 30
第一節 資料來源與處理 30
第二節 敘述統計與相關係數分析 33
第三節 模型設定 39
第四節 變數選取與描述 40
第四章 實證結果分析 44
第一節 台北市住宅價格特徵價格模型 44
第二節 台北市住宅價格特徵價格模型結果分析 53
第五章 結論與建議 58
第一節 結論 58
第二節 建議 60
參考文獻 61
一、中文文獻
內政部建築研究所、國立政治大學房地產研究中心,2007,「台灣房地產景氣動向季報」,9卷,4期,2頁。
林祖嘉、林素菁,1993,「台灣地區環境品質與公共設施對房價與房租影響之分析」,住宅學報,1期,21-45頁。
林秋瑾,1996,「穩健性住宅租金模式之探討─異常點分析」,住宅學報,4期,51-72頁。
洪得洋、林祖嘉,1999,「台北市捷運系統與道路寬度對房屋價格影響之研究」,住宅學報,8期,47-67頁。
徐國城,2006,「緊密都市形態之正負面效益論述~兼論對台灣城鄉空間發展之參考觀點」,土地研究季刊,5卷,4期,32-45頁。
馮正民,1989,「台北都會區房價與房價支付能力之研究」,國科會。
馮正民、許侶馨,1989,「屬性價格函數在捷運北淡沿線地價分析之應用」,都市與計劃,16卷,113-130頁。
張怡文,2007,「特徵價格法在住宅大量估價模型中的延伸─分量迴歸之應用」,國立政治大學地政學系碩士論文。
曾智偉,2006,「不同交通建設對房價影響之比較─台北捷運南港線與市民大道之實證研究」,國立台北大學都市計劃研究所第七屆碩士論文。
楊恩捷,2004,「緊密都市之永續分析」,國立台北大學都市計劃研究所第五屆碩士論文。
簡龍鳳,2005,「論永續發展概念下緊密都市之空間結構思維」,土地研究季刊,4卷,2期,16-24頁。
廖仲仁、張金鶚,2006,「不對稱的仲介服務價格效果;分量迴歸法之檢驗」,都市與計劃,3卷1期,1-16頁。
廖咸興、張芳玲,1997,「不動產評價模式特徵價格法與逼近調整法之比較」,住宅學報,5期,17-35頁。


二、英文文獻
Alonso W., 1964, “Location and Land Use”, Mass: Harvard Press.
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Elliot M., 1981, “The Impact of Growth Control Regulations on Housing Prices in California’’, Journal of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association 81, p. 115–33.
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Fisher J. D., Smith B. C., Stern J. J. and Webb R. B., 2005,“Analysis of Economic Depreciation for Multi-family Property’’, Journal of Real Estate Research, Vol. 27, No.1, p. 1-24.
Follain J. R. and Malpezzi, S., 1980,“Dissecting Housing Value and Rent”, Washington, DC: The Urban Institute.
Gerrit J. Knaap, 1985, “The Price Effects of Urban Growth Boundaries in Metropolitan Portland, Oregon’’, Land Economics, Vol. 61, No. 1.
Gujarati D. N., 2003, “ Basic Economics”, McGraw-Hill/Irwin, New York.

Jerry A., 2006, “State Growth Management and Housing Prices’’, Social Science Quarterly, Vol. 87, No. 1, p. 122-141.
Wesley H. Jones, Michael G. Ferri and Randolph L. Mcgee, 1981,“A Competitive Testing Approach to Model of Depreciation in Housing’’, Journal of Economics and Business, Vol. 33, No. 3, p.202-211.
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Megbolugbe I. F., Marks A. P. and Schwartz M. B., 1991, “The Economic Theory of Housing Demand: A Critical Review’’, Journal of Real Estate Research, Vol. 6, No. 3, p. 381-393.
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Sirmans G. S., Macpherson D. A. and Zietz E. N., 2005,“The Composition of Hedonic Pricing Models”, Journal of Real Estate Literature, Vol. 13, No.1, p. 3-44.
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