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研究生:詹子緯
論文名稱:台灣股票市場的溢酬預測與風格輪動
論文名稱(外文):Premium Predicting and Style Rotation in Taiwan Stock Market
指導教授:林基煌林基煌引用關係
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立政治大學
系所名稱:財務管理研究所
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:財務金融學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2008
畢業學年度:96
語文別:英文
論文頁數:43
中文關鍵詞:風格輪動價值溢酬規模溢酬
外文關鍵詞:Style RotationValue PremiumSize Premium
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價值股與小型股在90年代的表現不如預期,顯示這些股票風格並不能帶給投資人過去文獻所顯現的報酬。近年來,有關風格擇時策略的研究開始興起,在美國、英國、日本皆發現了相當可觀的潛在報酬。此篇論文的目的,是要檢驗風格輪動策略在台灣股票市場的執行效果,以對國外的風格投資實證結果做延伸應用。首先,此篇論文探討風格輪動策略的潛在利益。接著,建立模型預測未來風格溢酬,並與消極策略比較績效結果。這裡使用的預測模型,調整自Bauer et al. (2004)所使用的動態模型方法,並增加適合度統計量的選擇條件,以確保模型估計期間內解釋變數的解釋力,最後選出在樣本外24個月中預測力最高的模型作為下一期的預測模型。實證結果顯示,風格輪動策略在台灣股票市場具有相當顯著的潛在報酬。在大型/小型輪動策略中,預測模型表現明顯比消極策略優秀,但在價值/成長輪動策略中,預測模型並沒有辦法顯著超越消極策略。而多重風格投資策略可以帶來更高的報酬,同時也涉及更高的風險。因為規模風格消極策略在樣本期間表現不佳,使得大型/小型輪動策略可以藉由預測模型打敗消極策略。然而,雖然價值/成長輪動策略的潛在利益頗大,但價值風格消極策略在樣本期間表現不俗,使得本篇論文的預測模型不易勝過消極策略。
The disappointing performance of style consistency strategies during 1990s told us that value and small-cap stocks may not bring us the same returns as literature showed. Recently, researchers of style timing strategies have found a great potential benefit. The aim of this paper attempts to examine the execution of the style rotation strategies in Taiwan stock market and contribute to more extensive application of international style investment empirical results. First, this paper explores the potential benefits of the style rotation strategies. Then, the paper tries to predict the style premiums and compares the style rotation results to the passive strategies. Adjusting the dynamic modeling approach applied by Bauer et al. (2004), this paper adds the selection criteria of the likelihood score statistic to assure the in-sample explanatory power of 17 financial and economic variables, and chooses the forecast models with the highest out-of-sample forecasting power in the training period. The results show that the potential benefits of style rotation strategies were significant and worth researching in Taiwan stock market. The forecast models performed well in the small/large rotation strategies, but worse in the value/growth rotation strategies. The multi-style rotation strategy could provide higher return as well as involved higher risk. Because the small/large passive strategy performed poorly during the investment period, the size rotation strategy could beat the passive strategy through the forecast model. However, although the potential benefit of the value/growth rotation strategy was still large in the sample period, it was challenging to beat the passive value/growth strategy when the value/growth passive strategy performed well.
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1.1 Background 1
1.2 Objective 2
1.3 Overview 2
Chapter 2 Literature Review 3
2.1 Style Investment 3
2.2 Style Rotation 5
Chapter 3 Method 9
3.1 Research Design 9
3.2 Materials 12
3.2.1 Data Resource 13
3.2.2 Style Portfolios 13
3.2.3 Variables 15
Chapter 4 Result 19
4.1 Descriptive Result 19
4.2 Forecast Result 23
4.2.1 Small/large Rotation Strategies 23
4.2.2 Value/growth Rotation Strategies 28
4.2.3 Explanatory and Forecast Variables 31
4.2.4 Multi-style Rotation Strategy 32
Chapter 5 Discussion and Conclusions 35
5.1 Conclusions 35
5.2 Review of Research Findings 35
5.3 Limitations of the Study 36
5.4 Recommendations for Future Research 36
References 38
Appendix 1 41
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