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研究生:陳品君
研究生(外文):Pin-Chun Chen
論文名稱:房屋成交價與銷售期間關係之研究-以台中地區為例
論文名稱(外文):Relations between Selling Price and Time: An Empirical Study for Taichung’s Housing Market
指導教授:陳美源陳美源引用關係
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立中興大學
系所名稱:財務金融系所
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:財務金融學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2008
畢業學年度:96
語文別:中文
論文頁數:34
中文關鍵詞:房價銷售期間特徵價格理論
外文關鍵詞:Selling priceSelling timeHedonic price theory
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關於研究房價的影響因素,大多以特徵價格理論(hedonic price theory)來探討,本論文利用此理論發展出的三種函數型態,直線型函數、半對數型函數、雙對數型函數分析各屬性對成交單價與銷售期間的影響關係。選取2004年10月1日至2006年9月30日台中八個行政區2065筆的房地產成交資料為實證研究對象,透過配適度尋找成交單價與銷售期間的最適模型,解釋各個特徵的屬性價格,與各屬性對銷售期間之間的影響關係。
實證結果發現,在最適成交單價模型的影響因素中,面積對單價為顯著負向關係;地上樓層總數對單價造成負斜率的曲線關係,直到超過22樓,此關係變為正斜率的曲線關係;屋齡對單價為負斜率的曲線關係,直到屋齡超過35年,此關係變為正斜率;銷售期間對單價是負向的影響;台灣加權股價指數與有店面房屋對單價為正向顯著影響;房屋類型中,別墅與透天對房價為顯著正向影響,而套房對房價為顯著負向影響;房屋區位對成交單價為正向影響。
在最適的銷售期間模型中,影響因素為地上樓層總數、屋齡、房屋類型、房屋區位;地上樓層總數、屋齡對銷售期間有正向的顯著影響;房屋類型中,別墅與透天傾向為豪宅,所以買賣者皆會更審慎評估價格的合理性,而延長銷售期間;房屋區位對銷售期間有負向的顯著影響。
房屋成交價格與銷售期間的聯立模型中,成交價與銷售期間為負向的互動關係,即表示銷售期間對成交價格造成負向顯著影響,且成交價格對銷售期間亦為負向顯著影響。比較單一模型與聯立模型的解釋力,結果發現在成交單價的模型中,半對數模型與聯立模型的解釋力是一致的,其調整後的判定係數為0.5045,而在銷售期間的模型中,半對數模型與聯立模型的調整後判定係數分別為0.0310與0.0309。
The purpose of this thesis is to analyze the correlativity between the selling price and the length of selling time a used house by three regression models, i.e., linear, semi-log and double-log forms, based on hedonic price theory. An appropriate model is selected by a criterion of model selection, AIC. Our empirical sample consists of 2065 used houses located at the eight districts of Taichung and traded from Oct. 1, 2004 to Sept. 30, 2006.
Our empirical results show that the building area, the floors less than 22th, the building age less than 35 years, length of selling time and dummy of suite are negatively related to the selling price. The townhouse, villa, Taiwan weighed stock index, storefront and location are significantly positive to the selling price. Besides, we also find that the adjusted coefficient of determination from estimated simultaneous model is identical to the semi-log regression model. This indicates that single, semi-log regression model is appropriate for studying the determination of selling price.
As to the empirical results for the length of selling time model, higher the number of floors, the building age and the dummy of a cottage would cause longer length of selling time. The selling price and the length of selling time are negatively interacted in the simultaneous model. However, the adjusted coefficient of determination from the simultaneous mode is 0.0310 which is equal to the one from the single semi-log regression model.
目次

第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景 1
第二節 研究動機與目的 1
第二章 房地產相關理論與文獻回顧 3
第一節 特徵價格理論 3
第二節 房價影響因素之相關文獻 4
第三節 銷售期間影響因素之相關文獻 6
第三章 研究方法 9
第一節 研究變數的來源與處理 9
第二節 模型建構 13
第四章 實證分析與結果 16
第一節 房屋成交單價的結果分析 16
第二節 房屋銷售期間的結果分析 24
第三節 成交價格與銷售期間的聯立結果分析 28
第五章 結論與建議 31
第一節 結論 31
第二節 建議 32
參考文獻 33
一、中文部份
李建裕、陳得發(1993),都會區住宅價格與總體經濟環境關係之研究。台灣銀行季刊,44(1),322-352。
楊宗憲(1995),住宅價格指數編製概念的探討,地政論壇,17,91-103。
李春長(1996),房地產交易市場上銷售期間之研究-台灣房屋銷售成交機率的實證研究,政大地政學報,1(1),51-72。
李春長、張金鶚(1996),房地產仲介市場賣方調價與和銷售期間關係之研究,經濟論文,24(4),591-616。
李月華(1997),台北市住宅區成屋交易價格影響因素之研究,崇右學報,6,130-142。
李春長、張金鶚、林祖嘉(1997),房屋交易市場上銷售期間之研究:存活模式之應用,國家科學委員會研究彙刊,7(3),420-437。
洪得洋、林祖嘉(1999),臺北市捷運系統與道路寬度對房屋價格影響之研究,住宅學報,8,47-67。
陳彥仲、陳佳欣(2002),都市土地使用條件對住宅市流動性之邊際影響效果,都市與計,29(1),67-87。
林楨家、黃至豪(2003),台北捷運營運前後沿線房地屬性特徵價格之變化,運輸計劃季刊,4,777-800。

二、英文部份
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Forgey, F.A., Rutherford, R.C.and Springer, T.M.(1996). Search and Liquidity in Single-Family Housing. Real Estate Economics, 24(3), 273-292.
Fortura, P. and Kushner, J. (1986). Canadian Inter-City House Price Differentials. Journal of the Forecastin, 14, 525-536.
Glower, M., Haurin, D. and Hendershott, P.(1998). Selling Time and Selling Price: The Influence of Seller Motivation. Real Estate Economics, 26(4), 719-740.
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Miller, N.G.. (1987). Time on the Market and Selling Price. AREUEA Journal, 6(2),164-174.
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Ridker, R.G. and Henning, J.A. (1967). The Determinants of Residential Property Values with Special Reference to Air Pollution. Review of Economics & Statistics, 49(2), 246-258.
Taylor, C.(1999). Time-on-the-Market as a Sign of Quality. Review of Economic Studies, 66(3), 555-578.
Wilhelmsson, M. (2002). Household Expenditure Patterns for Housing Attributes: A Linear Expenditure System with Hedonic Prices. Journal of Housing Economics, 11(1), 75-94.
Yavas, A. and Yang, S.(1995). The Strategic Role of Listing Price in Marketing Real Estate: Theory and Evidence, Real Estate Economics, 23(3), 347-368.
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