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研究生:蔡宏欣
研究生(外文):Hung-shin Tsai
論文名稱:氣候變遷對石門水庫集水區的水文衝擊
論文名稱(外文):Hydrologic Impact of Climate Change over Shimen Reservoir Catchment
指導教授:游保杉游保杉引用關係
指導教授(外文):Bau-shan You
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立成功大學
系所名稱:水利及海洋工程學系碩博士班
學門:工程學門
學類:河海工程學類
論文種類:學術論文
畢業學年度:96
語文別:中文
論文頁數:74
中文關鍵詞:氣候變遷水文衝擊蒸發散量土壤含水量
外文關鍵詞:Climate changeEvapotranspirationHydrologic ImpactSoil moisture
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中 文 摘 要
本研究主要在探討氣候變遷對石門水庫集水區之水文衝擊現象。首先利用簡易降尺度方法,將大氣環流模式在研究區域內最鄰近格點之雨量及溫度修正量配合一階馬可夫鏈模式繁衍未來短、中、長期之雨量及溫度資料,並將繁衍後的未來情境資料輸入連續型水文模式來推估石門地區在氣候變遷下之水文衝擊現象配合不同氣候變遷預設情境的輸出值,分別模擬未來之降雨量、蒸發散量、土壤層補注量及逕流量之可能變化。
由於水文模式為評估氣候變遷對水文衝擊現象工具,模式為將集水區考慮為一個系統,系統內組成包含降雨、蒸發散量、儲蓄與逕流反應。因此為了合理的模擬集水區內的水文循環現象,乃在現有的模式下針對模式在土壤層的部分做修正,引進集水區內之蒸發量與土壤含水量觀測值,進行模式率定,以改善模式在土壤層部分的模擬,並以此改進後的水文模式模擬在氣候變遷下的水文量變化情形。
本研究分析結果如下,未來之降雨量與逕流量在豐水期間(尤以6月至10月)相對於現況有較顯著增加之趨勢且主要集中在颱風季節,在枯水期間(尤以1月至4月)先對於現況有較顯著之減少趨勢,蒸發散量全年則呈現增加趨勢,土壤層補注量則略有增加。在極端事件上,由氣候型態顯示未來之降雨量有集中在颱風季之現象,因此水資源分配不均問題將比現況更為嚴重,且在枯流量發生事件上每年平均發生次數有較現況來得增加,亦顯示連續發生枯流量事件之天數有增加之趨勢。

關鍵詞: 氣候變遷、水文衝擊、蒸發散量、土壤含水量
Abstract
This research investigated the climate change of hydrologic impacts on Shimen Reservoir catchment. A continuous conceptual hydrological model is used to assess the changes of rainfall, evapotranspiration, recharge and flow of the study area under climate change scenarios. Although the hydrologic rainfall-runoff model used can well simulate flows, other hydrological processes, such as the soil moisture, are found to have bias. Therefore, the work adopted observed soil moisture and evapotranspiration data into the calibration process to improve the modeling of hydrologic processes. Also, this study applied the fuzzy multi-objective function to compromise the goal of optimizing both runoff and soil moisture simultaneously. Results show that the proposed calibration method, as compared to the traditional method without introducing soil moisture data in the calibration, can improve the simulation of hydrological processes, especially the soil moisture content.
The calibrated hydrological model is then used to project hydrologic variables under climate change scenarios. Inputs of future projected temperature and precipitation data are downscaled from GCMs outputs using simple downscaling method, which consists of a one-order Markov chain model. Analytical results show that future rainfall and runoff during the rainy season (especially in the typhoon season from June to October) are projected to increase, and those during the dry season (especially from January to April) have a decreasing trend. Projected evapotranspiration has an increasing trend in the whole year, and projected recharge increases slightly.

Keyword:Climate change、Hydrologic Impact、Evapotranspiration、Soil moisture
目錄
Abstract I
目錄 I
表目錄 IV
圖目錄 VI
第一章 緒論 1
1-1 研究動機與目的 1
1-2 文獻回顧 2
1-3 研究方法概述 4
1-4 本文組織架構 4
第二章 研究區域概況 6
2-1 地理位置與地文特性 6
2-2 氣象與水文特性 6
2-3 水文資料蒐集 7
第三章 連續型降雨-逕流模式 14
3-1 模式理論與架構 14
3-1-1 土壤含水層反應部份 15
3-1-2 逕流反應部份 16
3-1-3 模式之參數率定程序 18
3-1-4 評鑑指標 19
3-2 參數率定與驗證結果 20
第四章 降雨-逕流模式在土壤層部分的改善 26
4-1 勢能蒸發散估算部分 26
4-1-1 Hamon經驗公式與地區性參數校正 27
4-1-2 勢能蒸發散量估算結果 28
4-2 土壤含水量估算部分 30
4-2-1 土壤含水量加入多目標決策分析 30
4-2-2 土壤含水量模擬結果 31
4-2-3 加入土壤含水量率定對於逕流模擬結果 32
第五章 氣候變遷下的水文衝擊 42
5-1 未來氣象繁衍資料 42
5-2 水循環收支情形 45
5-2-1 降雨量分析 45
5-2-2 蒸發散量分析 45
5-2-3 土壤層補注量分析 46
5-2-4 逕流量分析 47
5-2-5 討論 49
第六章 結論與建議 68
6-1 結論 68
6-2 建議 69
參考文獻 70
參考文獻
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