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研究生:胡琬珮
研究生(外文):Wan-PeiHu
論文名稱:考慮異質性、相關性、及內生性之潛在變數選擇模式
論文名稱(外文):Latent Variable Choice Models Considering Heterogeneity, Correlation, and Endogeneity
指導教授:段良雄段良雄引用關係
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立成功大學
系所名稱:交通管理學系碩博士班
學門:運輸服務學門
學類:運輸管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2013
畢業學年度:96
語文別:中文
論文頁數:122
中文關鍵詞:內生性潛在變數選擇模式結構方程模式相關性異質性
外文關鍵詞:latent variable choice modelendogeneitycorrelationheterogeneitystructural equation model
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過去個體選擇模式考慮知覺與態度等不可觀測變數的方法,會有參數估計值不具一致性與有效性、指標無法直接影響決策、以及指標不適用於預測等問題,且不可觀測的潛在變數無法隨個體不同而有所改變,以致不利於政策分析與應用。此外現今模式校估技術大多利用模擬最大概似法,來克服模式中多維度參數積分的困難,而模擬次數不足時參數校估結果將出現不穩定情況,但卻鮮少研究探討模擬次數對模式校估之影響,故適當的模擬次數相當重要。
本研究主要目的乃利用聯立方程模式觀念,整合潛在變數與個體選擇模式,決定較佳的隨機亂數抽取次數,使得參數估計值具有一致性、有效性、及穩定性,並考慮服務品質知覺變數之異質性、相關性、及層級式因果關係,增加模式解釋能力以掌握旅客的乘車行為,使易於應用於政策分析,及瞭解各政策變數對選擇行為之直接或間接影響效果,以解決過去相關研究所發生之問題。研究範圍為國道客運高雄至台北路線。
在處理潛在變數選擇模式的部份,實證結果顯示,加入了服務品質滿意度之後,皆已提昇選擇模式的解釋能力,顯示此研究方法之有效性。而隨機亂數抽取次數的部份,各種潛在變數選擇模式之模擬對數概似函數值,將隨著模擬抽取次數的增加而增加,且以Halton亂數模擬次數增加為4000次時,皆顯示模擬對數概似函數值之改善情況漸趨緩和,故本研究以模擬次數為4000次作為各種潛在變數選擇模式之適宜的隨機數列抽取次數。
潛在變數假設為外生變數時,以整合潛在變數異質性與相關性之一般化潛在變數選擇模式的解釋能力較佳,且證實便利性、舒適娛樂性、乘客互動度等滿意度潛在變數,具有個體異質與相關之情況,且此三個服務品質滿意度變數正向影響旅客對國道客運公司的選擇行為。若考慮潛在變數間層級式因果關係時,則旅客對各客運公司之便利滿意度與舒適娛樂滿意度會直接正向影響選擇行為,且以便利滿意度之影響程度較舒適娛樂滿意度影響強;旅客的互動滿意度則透過便利滿意度與舒適娛樂滿意度間接正向影響對各客運公司的選擇行為。
In the past, the way that the discrete choice models treated the unobservable variables such as perceived and attitude variables caused some problems. For example, the estimated parameters were not consistent and efficient, the index could not be used directly to affect the policies, and the index may not be suitable in the prediction, and the unobservable variables are unchangeable as individuals vary. It results in some disadvantages for policies analysis and applications. Now the most widely used models is Maximum Simulated Likelihood to overcome the model with multi dimension parameter integration problems. There exists unstable situation in parameter calibrating as the number of simulated draws is not enough. The earlier reference seldom explored the influence of the model calibrating by simulating the number of draws. The number of draws is quite important.
The purpose of this research is to use the simultaneous equations concepts for integrating latent variables and individual choice models, and decide the best number of the random draws. The parameters estimation will be more consistent, efficient, and stable. In addition, this study also discusses the heterogeneity, correlation, and hierarchy cause-and-effect of service quality perceived variables to increase the explanatory power in the models and to know the travelers’ riding behaviors. It will be implementing to policy analysis, to understand every policy variables on direct and indirect effect of choice behaviors, and to solve the problem which came about in the previous researches. The scope of this research was the intercity bus travelers of Taipei-Kaohsiung route in Taiwan.
For the part of dealing with the latent variable choice models, the evidence shows that as the service satisfaction factors add in the model, the explanatory power will be improved. It also presented the methodology is efficient. For the part of the number of random draws, simulating the log-likelihood function of different latent variable choice models will boost as the simulating number increase. While the Halton random number reached to 4000, the improvement of the simulation to simulating the log-likelihood function was getting smooth. So this research picks 4,000 as the number of random draws.
In this paper, if the latent variables are assumed as exogenous variables, the I II - -
integrating latent variables heterogeneity and correlation of the choice model has better explanatory power. It presents that there are individual heterogeneity and correlation among the three service quality variables-convenience, commoditization and entertainment, the passengers’ interaction. In addition, there is positive influence on the travelers’ choices to the intercity bus companies by these three service quality satisfaction variables. The convenience and commoditization and entertainment satisfaction of the travelers to the bus companies will influence positively on travelers’ choice behaviors, and the convenience satisfaction is stronger than commoditization and entertainment satisfaction. Moreover, the travelers’ interaction satisfaction influence indirectly on the travelers’ choice behaviors to the bus companies through the convenience and commoditization and entertainment satisfaction of the travelers.
摘 要..................................................................................................................I
Abstract................................................................................................................II
誌 謝...............................................................................................................IV
目 錄..............................................................................................................V
表 目 錄..........................................................................................................VII
圖 目 錄...........................................................................................................IX
圖 目 錄...........................................................................................................IX
第一章 緒論.....................................................................................................1
1.1 研究背景與動機.....................................................................................................1
1.2 研究目的.................................................................................................................4
1.3 研究範圍與限制.....................................................................................................5
1.4 研究內容.................................................................................................................5
第二章 文獻回顧.............................................................................................7
2.1 個體選擇模式(Disaggregate Choice Model, DCM)..............................................7
2.2 結構方程模式(SEM)............................................................................................14
2.3 考慮潛在變數之選擇模式...................................................................................18
2.4 公路客運旅客乘車行為之相關研究...................................................................24
2.5 綜合評析...............................................................................................................34
第三章 模式構建...........................................................................................37
3.1 基礎模式(MNL)...................................................................................................38
3.2 基準潛在變數選擇模式(BLVCM)......................................................................39
3.3 異質潛在變數選擇模式(HLVCM)......................................................................42
3.4 一般化潛在變數選擇模式(GLVCM)..................................................................44
3.5 內生潛在變數選擇模式(ELVCM).......................................................................47
3.6 一般化內生潛在變數選擇模式(GELVCM)........................................................50
3.7 模式校估方法.......................................................................................................53 V I - -
3.8 研究方法...............................................................................................................58
第四章 實證結果...........................................................................................63
4.1 基本資料與旅次特性分析...................................................................................63
4.2 個體選擇模式(MNL)結果分析...........................................................................68
4.3 BLVCM結果分析.................................................................................................71
4.4 HLVCM結果分析.................................................................................................76
4.5 GLVCM結果分析.................................................................................................80
4.6 ELVCM結果分析.................................................................................................86
4.7 敏感性分析...........................................................................................................99
第五章 結論與建議.....................................................................................105
5.1 結論.....................................................................................................................105
5.2 建議.....................................................................................................................109
參考文獻..........................................................................................................111
附錄:問卷.....................................................................................................119
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