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研究生:陳張凱
研究生(外文):Edison Chen
論文名稱:以退貨比例考量不同程度的風險成本之製造商退貨政策
論文名稱(外文):Manufacture's returns polices with risk-aversion
指導教授:吳植森李賢得李賢得引用關係
指導教授(外文):Chin-Sen WuShine-Der Lee
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立成功大學
系所名稱:資訊管理研究所
學門:電算機學門
學類:電算機一般學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2008
畢業學年度:96
語文別:中文
論文頁數:53
中文關鍵詞:報僮存貨模式期望效用風險態度退貨政策
外文關鍵詞:Risk AttitudeExpected UtilityNewsboy ModelReturn Policies
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全球化的競爭體系下,企業的競爭對手不在只限於國內而是全世界;全球化競爭趨勢下,如何保有及維持競爭力,或是如何獲取競爭優勢,為目前企業所重視的議題。產品從生產製造,一直到最終消費者手上之供應鏈的運作流程裡,每一個環節都必須有效的協調運作。另一方面,產品以消費者為導向,以及產品生命週期縮短的特性下,管理者以報僮的存貨模式來思考決策。因此,本研究以報僮存貨模式,以及使用退貨政策做為協調方式,研究單一製造商與單一零售商的二階產銷系統之退貨政策。製造商使用退貨政策,且可以透過退貨比例,及退貨價格來維持企業的競爭優勢。然而,製造商使用退貨政策除了因為退貨所產生的損失之外本研究也考量到風險成本。
製造商在決定不同的退貨比例時,代表其自身對於風險規避程度的不同。因此,可用退貨比例連動產生不同程度的風險規避之方式,建立非線性期望效用模型,利用遞迴的方式求解在零售商風險中立與風險規避二種情況下之決策變數:(1)傳統全比例的退貨之下,以遞迴的方式來求解製造商最佳退貨價格的收斂;(2)當退貨比例成為製造商可調整之決策變數後,對製造商退貨價格與零售商訂購量的影響。研究結果顯示:(1)當退貨比例為製造商可調整之決策變數後,零售商屬於風險中立的情況下,製造商若提供小於一之退貨比例,其所獲得之期望效用會高;(2)當零售商開始考量風險成本時,其風險規避態度在超過某一程度之後,會使得製造商需提供全比例的退貨,製造商所獲得的期望效用相較於零售商風險中立時來得低。
In confront of global competition, gaining competitive advantage is a very important issue for business. Managers make decision on the inventory problem using newsboy model with return policies in the customer-oriented business world with short life-cycle products. Therefore, this thesis models a one-manufacturer and one-retailer supply chain using newsboy model under return policies with two risk attitudes. Manufacturers use return policy to gain competitive advantage by partial return and acceptable buy-back price. In addition to the loss from return policy this thesis also considers risk cost of return policy.
Different partial return stands for the manufacturer’s risk-aversion. Therefore, use different partial return will affect the degree of the manufacturer’s risk-aversion. A non-linear expected utility model was built for the supply chain model. Procedures for finding the values of decision variables under the retailer’s risk-neutral and risk-aversion was developed using the recursive method. Two scenarios are considered in the study: 1. finding the manufacturer’s buy-back price with best utility under traditional unlimited return policy. 2. investigating the effect that the manufacturer’s buy-back price on retailer’s order quantity under various partial return policies. Conclusion from the study includes: 1. when the retailer is risk-neutral, the manufacturer gains a larger expected utility from offering partial return. 2. when the retailer is of risk-aversion an unlimited return policy is required for the manufacture to accomplish the best utility. However, the expected utility of the manufacturer with risk-aversion retailer is lower than that with risk-neutral retailer.
摘要....................................................i
Abstract................................................ii
誌謝....................................................iii
目錄....................................................iv
圖目錄..................................................vi
表目錄..................................................vii
第一章 緒論.............................................1
1.1 研究背景與動機......................................1
1.2 研究目的............................................2
1.3 研究範圍與限制......................................3
1.4 研究架構............................................4
第二章 文獻探討.........................................6
2.1 供應鏈與供應鏈管理..................................6
2.2.1 供應鏈及供應鏈管理的意義及特性....................7
2.2 報僮存貨模式與退貨政策..............................10
2.3 小結................................................21
第三章 研究方法.........................................23
3.1 產銷決策行為........................................23
3.2 期望效用模型........................................24
3.3 變數與符號說明......................................24
3.4 零售商期望效用模型架構..............................25
3.4.1 零售商期利潤模型..................................26
3.4.2 零售商風險........................................27
3.4.3 零售商期望效用模型................................27
3.5 製造商期望效用模型架構..............................31
3.5.1 製造商期望利潤模型................................31
3.5.2 製造商風險........................................32
3.5.3 製造商期望效用模型................................32
3.6 退貨價求解方法......................................34
第四章 模型數值分析.....................................37
4.1 決策變數與參數設定..................................37
4.2 考量風險的零售商其效用模型為凹函數..................38
4.3 求解最佳的退貨價格的收斂............................38
4.4 不同退貨比例下考量風險的零售商其效用模型為凹函數....40
4.5 不同退貨比例下求解最佳退貨價格的收斂................40
4.6 不同退貨比例對製造商退貨價的影響....................43
4.7 不同退貨比例對零售商訂購量的影響....................44
4.8 不同退貨比例對製造商期望效用的影響..................45
第五章 結論與建議.......................................47
5.1 結論................................................47
5.2 建議................................................48
References..............................................49
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