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研究生:林伽鴻
研究生(外文):Chia-Hung Lin
論文名稱:信用限制與經常帳動態之實證探討
論文名稱(外文):An Empirical Investigation on Credit Constraints and the Current Account Dynamics
指導教授:張瑞娟張瑞娟引用關係
指導教授(外文):Jui-Chuan Chang
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立暨南國際大學
系所名稱:經濟學系
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:經濟學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2008
畢業學年度:96
語文別:中文
論文頁數:73
中文關鍵詞:經常帳循環信用開放經濟
外文關鍵詞:Current AccountCycleCreditOpen Economy
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本文將循著 Kunieda and Shibata (2005) 所發展架構,其依據 Kiyotaki and Moore (1997) 所提出強調擔保性資產之信用限制內生化的模型而後將之擴展為開放型的小國模型;並藉此推導得到以經常帳動態與土地的價格之變動間的關係式,以由此做為不存在信用限制時所必須存有的限定條件。在實證方法上,主要是使用一般動差法 (generalized method of moments),以台灣地區與香港地區這兩個同屬小型開放體系的國家,於1991年第三季至2008年第一季間的總體資料作為研究對象,藉以分別探討兩個地區分別的信用市場條件為何,其是否存在有信用限制;此外,本文更進一步比較兩個地區間,哪一方所受到的信用限制較為嚴重。模型估計後的結果顯示,台灣與香港這兩個地區確實存在著信用限制的問題;其中,台灣地區較香港地區所受到的信用限制程度更為嚴重。
The thesis follows Kunieda and Shibata (2005) constructed a small open economy version of the Kiyotaki and Moore’s (1997) model that emphasized collateralized assets as credit constraints endogenously, and then derives explicit restrictions on current account dynamics and changes of land price when there is no credit constraint. Methodologically, we adopt the generalized method of moments estimation to investigate whether there exist credit constraints and use macro-variable data in Taiwan and Hong Kong, these two small open countries over the period 1991:Q3-2008:Q1. Furthermore we compare the degree of credit constraints between these two countries. The empirical results show that both Taiwan and Hong Kong are credit-constrained, especially the severity of credit constraints in Taiwan is more than that in Hong Kong.
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機 1
第二節 研究目的 3
第三節 本文架構 4

第二章 文獻回顧 6

第三章 理論模型設定 16
第一節 模型介紹 16
第二節 模型基本設定 19
3.2.1廠商偏好 20
3.2.2 生產技術 20
第三節 均衡條件 21
3.3.1消費量之動態分析 23
3.3.2 經常帳動態 24

第四章 估計方法與實證結果分析 27
第一節 資料的選取與來源 27
4.1.1 變數的選取 27
4.1.2 資料來源 29
第二節 實證模型與方法 30
4.2.1 季節性調整 30
4.2.2單根檢定 31
4.2.3 一般動差估計法 32
第三節模型估計結果與分析 35
4.3.1 單根檢定結果 35
4.3.2模型估計結果與分析 37

第五章 結論與建議 41
第一節 結論 41
第二節 後續研究與建議 42
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