本研究的目的是調查通貨替代的重要性，以十個泛亞地區經濟體，探討各國國內與國外貨幣性資產，分析各國之本國通貨與國外通貨為替代或互補性資產。本文以Morishima替代彈性估計本國通貨與國外通貨，分別以本國貨幣、在商業銀行內儲蓄存款及外幣存款，評量資產之間的替代性。以1970年第一季至2008年第一季資料，探討各通貨在台灣、澳洲、巴西、加拿大、中國、香港、日本、韓國、紐西蘭及俄羅斯之間的替代程度。據我們觀察顯示，本國貨幣與國外通貨在各國間均為Morishima替代品，同時透過匯率貶值影響持有本國貨幣的機會成本，比透過國內利率，來影響持有外國通貨更為顯著，並且隨著時間的推移，通貨替代程式將更明顯。貨幣替代建立一個渠道，將國外貨幣的干擾傳遞至本國的通貨，此一現象在浮動匯率制度下將更為明顯。本篇提供的資訊，有必要建立一個充足的外匯儲備，以容納一定程度的貨幣替代及外來衝擊。

The objective of this study is to investigate the importance for the currency substitute of foreign assets to ten Pan-Asia economies, as a substitute or complement to domestic monetary assets. Towards this goal, the Morishima elasticity of substitution is estimated between domestic currency and foreign currency (real money balances, time and savings deposits and domestic holding foreign deposits at commercial banks) during 1970:Q1 to 2008:Q1 in Taiwan, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, New Zealand and Russia. Meanwhile, the demand for the foreign assets relative to the domestic assets appears to respond more to a change in the opportunity cost of holding domestic currency (exchange rate depreciation) than the opportunity cost of holding the foreign currency (the domestic interest rate). Moreover, there is an indication of an increasing degree of currency substitution over time in every country. Currency substitution creates a channel for the transmission of exogenous monetary disturbances from abroad, and this will be enhanced in a floating exchange rate regime. This study is toward to provide sufficient information to build up an adequate foreign reserve to adapt for the currency substitution and exogenous shocks.

Chapter One Introduction 1
1.1 Research Motive 1
1.2 Research Objective 1
1.3 Research Framework 2
Chapter Two Literature Review 3
2.1 The Model and Measure of Currency Substitution 3
2.2 The Implications of Currency Substitution 9
2.3 Taiwan's Relevant Research 13
Chapter Three Model Specification 16
3.1 Analytical Model 16
3.2 Elasticity of Substitution 23
3.3 Estimation Procedure 27
Chapter Four Data and Estimation Results 30
4.1 Data 30
4.2 Estimation Results 32
Taiwan 33
Australia 34
Brazil 35
Canada 35
China 36
Hong Kong 37
Japan 38
Korea 39
New Zealand 40
Russia 41
Summary 42
Chapter Five Concluding Remarks 43
5.1 Main Observations 43
5.2 Suggestions for Further Research 44
References 46
Appendix A 54
Appendix B 56
Appendix C 57
Tables iii
Figures iv

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