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研究生:王維瑩
研究生(外文):Wei-Ying Wang
論文名稱:家戶汽機車車型與車齡選擇模式之構建
論文名稱(外文):Modeling Disaggregate Behaviors in Choosing Type and Vintage of Cars and Motorcycles
指導教授:邱裕鈞邱裕鈞引用關係溫傑華溫傑華引用關係
指導教授(外文):Yu-Chiun ChiouChieh-Hua Wen
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立交通大學
系所名稱:交通運輸研究所
學門:運輸服務學門
學類:運輸管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2008
畢業學年度:96
語文別:中文
論文頁數:167
中文關鍵詞:車型車齡顯示性偏好敘述性偏好羅吉特模式
外文關鍵詞:typevintagereveal preferencestated preferenceLogit model
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隨著台灣地區汽機車持有量不斷上升,伴隨著嚴重的能源消耗過量及空氣污染的問題。為實現永續運輸(sustainable transportation)的目標,實有必要提出相關管理策略,期能於不影響日常經濟活動的情形下,有效地減少汽機車的能源消耗及污染排放。相關研究結果顯示,車輛的排氣量與車齡對於能源消耗及污染排放具有相當顯著的影響,此意味著可藉由鼓勵民眾選擇燃油效率高及替代能源的車輛來達到經濟發展與環境保護雙贏的目的。無庸置疑地,構建汽機車車型車齡選擇行為的模式實具重要性,以藉此研擬及分析相關管理策略。
基此,本研究針對台灣地區23縣市持有車輛之家戶採用分層抽樣方法進行全國問卷調查,發放汽機車共90,000份問卷,以取得顯示性及敘述性偏好之資料,所回收之有效份數為汽車3,379份;機車為2,536份。於有效樣本中,採用近三年有購車之家戶資料,汽車為1,419份;機車為1,249份資料,分別校估全國型汽機車車型車齡選擇模式。此外為進一步探討不同居住區域間選擇行為的差異性,以23縣市為基礎區分為3區域:主要都會、次要都會及一般城市,再分別構建區域型之羅吉特模式。
由全國型汽機車型車齡選擇模式的校估結果顯示車輛的燃油成本、車輛價格、保險費、維修保養費,以及主要駕駛所得、性別、教育程度等解釋變數會影響家戶選擇行為。全國型替代能源車型選擇模式亦顯示車輛燃油成本、維修保養費、車輛價格、燃油可及性、購車補助,以及主要駕駛所得、性別、教育程度等解釋變數會影響替代能源車型選擇行為。雖然上述變數於區域型模式多為顯著,但各變數對於三區域有不同程度的影響,建議確實有分別構建區域型模式的必要性,以探討不同區域的選擇行為。
為驗證模式之可應用性,本研究模擬全國提高牌照稅及燃料費、油價、徵收購車稅等相關管理策略,當購車稅為50%時汽車之大型車(排氣量大於1800c.c.)及機車(排氣量大於125c.c.)的佔有率將分別下降5.89%與下降6.18%。藉由增加老舊車輛(汽車為車齡超過5年;機車為超過3年)的使用成本可降低家戶選擇舊車的意願,當提高50%時將使汽機車之舊車佔有率分別下降5.33%及6.64%。此外若欲提高家戶選擇替代能源車型的意願,則以提高燃油可及性策略的效果較佳。研究結果可供政府部門作為管理污染排放與能源消耗問題之參考。
The rapidly growing number of cars and motorcycles in Taiwan has inevitably brought a severe problem of energy consumption and air pollution. To achieve the goal of sustainability, it is imperative to propose strategies which can effectively reduce energy consumption and emissions of motor vehicles without a serious impact to ordinary economic activities. According to related reports, the engine size and age of vehicles have rather significant effects on gas mileage and emitted pollution, implying that economic development and environmental protection can be both achieved by simply encouraging people to choose fuel economy and low-polluting cars and motorcycles. Undoubtedly, it is important to develop the choice behavior models of type and vintage of cars and motorcycles, so that the corresponding strategies can then be proposed and analyzed.
To this end, this study conducts a nationwide questionnaire survey by disseminating a total of 90,000 questionnaires, containing both reveal preference and stated preference items, to the owners of registered cars and motorcycles based on a stratified random sampling technique. A total of 2,379 and 2,536 valid questionnaires of cars and motorcycles are returned, respectively. Among these returned questionnaires, 1,419 and 1,249 questionnaires of the owners those who bought the vehicles in recent three years are selected for calibrating national car and motorcycle Logit models, respectively. In addition, to further scrutinize the differences of choice behaviors in various living environments, 23 counties/cities of Taiwan are first classified into three regions: major metropolitan, minor metropolitan and ordinary cities, then the regional car and motorcycle Logit models are developed.
The calibrated results of the nationwide type and vintage choice models show that the fuel cost, purchasing price, insurance cost, maintenance cost of the vehicle and the income, gender and education of the principal driver are found to be significant. The calibrated results of the nationwide type choice model of alternative fuel vehicles also show a similar result that the variables of the fuel cost, purchasing price, maintenance cost, accessibility of refuel stations, purchasing subsidy of the vehicle and the income, gender and education of the principal driver are significant. Although most of these variables are also found significant at the regional models, however, they exhibit different degrees of effect on the choice behaviors, suggesting the necessity to develop regional models for the better description of local choice behaviors.
To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed models, the changes in the vehicle type and vintage market shares under various strategies, including increase of license tax and fuel fee, increase of fuel price, levy of registration tax etc., are examined. The results show that the market shares of large-size car (engine size larger than 1800 c.c.) and motorcycle (engine size larger than 125 c.c.) will decrease by 5.89% and 6.18%, respectively, if a registration tax of 50% vehicle price is imposed. To increase 50% of usage cost of aged vehicles (more than 5 years for cars and more than 3 years for motorcycles), the market shares of aged car and motorcycle will then decrease by 5.33% and 6.64%, respectively. Moreover, to increase the accessibility of refuel stations is the most effective strategy for encouraging people to choose alternative fuel vehicles. Corresponding strategies are then proposed based on the applications.
摘要 0
Abstract II
誌謝 IV
目錄 V
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.1.1理論研究之空缺 1
1.1.2實務應用之需求 1
1.2 研究目的 2
1.3 研究對象與範圍 2
1.4 研究內容與流程 2
第二章 文獻回顧 5
2.1車型車齡選擇 5
2.2車型選擇 8
2.2.1 傳統車型 8
2.2.2 替代能源之車型 16
2.3小結 20
第三章 研究方法 21
3.1 個體選擇模式 21
3.1.1 羅吉特模式之介紹 21
3.1.2 模式參數校估 23
3.1.3 模式檢定 24
3.2敘述性偏好法 25
3.2.1 基本概念 25
3.2.2 實驗設計 26
3.2.3 分析方法 27
第四章 問卷設計與資料分析 29
4.1 問卷設計與內容 29
4.1.1 社經與車輛特性之問項設計 29
4.1.2 敘述性偏好之實驗設計 33
4.2 問卷調查 39
4.3 基本統計分析 42
4.3.1 方案被選擇次數之統計 42
4.3.2 樣本特性分析 47
4.3.3 樣本特性與選擇方案之交叉分析 57
第五章 模式構建與校估結果 72
5.1 變數說明 72
5.1.1 汽機車車型車齡選擇模式 72
5.1.2 替代能源車型選擇模式 75
5.2 全國型汽機車車型車齡選擇模式 77
5.2.1 汽車車型車齡選擇模式 77
5.2.2 機車車型車齡選擇模式 85
5.2.3 替代能源汽車選擇模式 91
5.2.4 替代能源機車選擇模式 96
5.3區域型汽機車車型車齡選擇模式 99
5.3.1 汽車車型車齡選擇模式 100
5.3.2 機車車型車齡選擇模式 104
5.3.3 替代能源汽車選擇模式 108
5.3.4 替代能源機車選擇模式 114
第六章 管理策略分析 117
6.1 油價之管理策略分析 118
6.1.1 全國油價之策略分析 118
6.1.2 區域油價之策略分析 127
6.2 牌照稅與燃料費之管理策略分析 141
6.2.1 全國牌照稅與燃料費之策略分析 141
6.2.2 區域牌照稅與燃料費之策略分析 142
6.3 燃油可及性之管理策略分析 144
6.3.1 全國燃油可及性之策略分析 144
6.3.2 區域牌燃油可及性之策略分析 146
6.4 小結 151
第七章 結論與建議 155
7.1 結論 155
7.2 本研究貢獻 156
7.3 建議 156
參考文獻 158
附錄一 汽車家戶調查問卷內容 160
附錄二 機車家戶調查問卷內容 164
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