臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

房地產景氣自2004年逐步翻昇後，雖常見公有土地以天價標售或房價創新高之訊息，但檢視市場之推案量與銷售率，目前已見回歸平靜之趨勢。對建築投資業者而言，如何於錯縱紛紜之消息面中取得正確訊息，以做為投資推案之決策參考，實屬攸關生計之關鍵課題。
本研究乃針對臺北市預售住宅，探討影響其銷售率之主要因素。本研究經專家訪談與腦力激盪後，以AHP層級分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process)將影響預售住宅之因素初步整理為四階層之架構。經專家問卷調查量化各因素之權重後，將整體因素架構簡化為三階層共十三個主要因素，其中以“交通條件”與“區域環境”兩因素權重皆佔百分之二十二為最重要，而“價格”因素之權重不到百分之五，並未如預期之重要。本研究並參考初步架構中第四階層之因素，藉以建立第三階層因素之評分標準，以利於預售住宅案整體銷售率之評估。
本研究所建立之影響因素與評估架構，經六件實際案例之測試後，更進一步以迴歸分析建立銷售率之推估模型，可用來推估住宅預售案可完全銷售之期間，或預估該案為“將嚴重滯銷”之不利情況。本研究之成果，可作為建築投資業是否進行推案之參考。

The market of real estate has been recovering since 2004. There were cases that public assets or housing property were sold at record-high prices. However, the real estate market is becoming relatively stable recently. It is always a crucial issue for housing developers to make right judgments from the mixed environment to maintain their competitiveness or survival.
This research aims at investigating the major factors that affecting preselling rates of housing projects invested by the developers in Taipei. Indepth interviews with experts and brain-storming seminars were conducted to obtain a set of preliminary factors. These factors were then structured into four layers by the method of analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Thirteen factors were finally identified and structured into three layers after a questionnaire survey of domain experts. It was found that “Traffic conditions” and “Zoning environment” were the most important two factors both weighted twenty-two percent. The “Pricing” factor, weighted less than five percent, was a surprising result. This research then clearly defined evaluation criteria for the thirteen factors to complete the evaluation mechanism.
Finally, six real housing projects were tested against the evaluation mechanism to create a regression model. This model is able to predict the duration required for “sold-out” or to indicate that the project is extremely infeasible. Results of this research are deemed to be useful references for the housing developers in determining their marketing strategies.

中文摘要Ⅰ
英文摘要Ⅱ
誌謝Ⅲ
目 錄Ⅳ
圖目錄Ⅴ
表目錄Ⅵ
附 錄Ⅷ
第一章 緒論1
1.1 研究動機與目的 1
1.2 研究範圍1
1.3 研究方法2
1.4 名詞定義 2
1.5 研究流程3
1.6 論文架構5
第二章 文獻回顧6
2.1 不動產產品及市場特性6
2.2 房地產景氣分析9
2.3 住宅環境品質13
2.4 不動產市場分析與行銷16
2.5 層級分析理論25
2.6 本章小結27
第三章 層級建構及問卷訪談 29
3.1 腦力激盪會議30
3.2 層級因素表30
3.3 評估預售住宅銷售率因子選定說明 32
3.4 評估預售住宅售銷率之層級分析34
3.5 問卷調查36
3.6 權重討論41
3.7 本章小結45
第四章 評分標準46
4.1 評分項目說明46
4.2 評分標準46
4.3 本章小結72
第五章 驗證73
5.1 案例說明73
5.2 驗證80
5.3 銷售率預測模型推估85
5.4 本章小結86
第六章 結論與建議 87
6.1 結論87
6.2 建議87
參考文獻89

英文部份
1. Alfred A. Ring, “Real Estate Principles and Practices.”1972.
2. R.Haley, “Benefit Segments: Backwards and Forwards,” Journal of Advertising Research.
3. Gary Armstrong and Philip Kotler, “Marketing - An Introduction.”2005.
4. Jon G. Udell, “How Important Is Pricing in Competitive Strategy,” Journal of Marketing, January, 1964.
5. R.Fleming, “Pricing Competition is Shaping Up as 84 Top Marketing Pressure Points,” Marketing News, November 11, 1983.
中文部份
6.林左裕(2000)，不動產投資管理。臺北：智勝。
7.臺北市土地使用分區管制規則及圖例。
8.卓輝華(1992)，不動產估價，臺北：乙全。
9.張金鶚(2003)，房地產投資與市場分析-中篇。
10.張清溪等(2004)，經濟學理論與實務-上冊，五版。
11.張金鶚主持研究(1989)，房地產景氣指標之研究。
12.榮泰生（2005），“行銷學”，五南出版社，二版。
13.江哲銘等(2006)，中華民國建築學會「建築學報」第57 期，2006 年9 月。
14.吳家德(2008)，房地產理論與實務。
15.丁育群(2005) ，建立住宅性能評估制度之研究，內政部建築研究所。http://www.abri.gov.tw/utcPageBox/CHIMAIN.aspx?ddsPageID=CHIMCA&
16.行政院主計處（2008），臺灣地區人口三階段年齡結構-中計。
17.行政院主計處(2008)，各縣市人口概況重要指標。