臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

在台灣，替代燃料也逐漸受重視。尤其高油價時代的來臨，替代燃料汽車的使用不僅能改善空氣品質，油耗也較傳統汽油汽車節省。從經濟面與環保永續經營層面來看，替代燃料都有優勢，值得推廣。為探討台灣民眾對替代燃料汽車的接受度，本研究使用「敘述偏好法」(Stated Preference Method, SP)分析替代燃料汽車的潛在需求。由於替代燃料汽車是個新興產品，仍未普及上市。針對如此市場應用「敘述偏好法」來進行需求分析與預測，目的希望能分析消費者之選擇行為特性與偏好，找出刺激增加替代燃油車需求市場的因素。研究對象為台灣地區汽車使用者。使用多元羅吉特模式校估資料，建立車輛選擇模式。最後，應用「邊際替代率」分析消費者對替代能源汽車各服務屬性的願付價格。結果發現消費者的新車選購石油汽車有三成五、油電車有四成、油氣車有兩成，顯示民眾對油電車接受度較高。高所得族群偏好油電車、中所得族群選擇依次為油氣車、石油車。民眾多傾向選擇替代燃料汽車，但本研究顯示出油電車的高價格門檻的確讓一般民眾卻步，油電車補助優惠政策確實能提升民眾購買油電車意願。替代燃料汽車的潛在市場族群：有兩部汽車以上的家庭、目前非汽車使用者但三年後會購買汽車、學歷為大學以上及高家庭所得的消費者。高所得的家庭願付較多購買環保車款。以得到後續帶來的遠程優點例如維護和油料成本的減少，因為高所得家庭較不會掛慮到汽車的購買價格。最後建議呼籲車商提供合理價格才能使高燃油效率的油電車普及的被使用，政府提供減稅優惠政策來造就替代燃料汽車銷售量提升。

The alternative fuel has become a significant issue in Taiwan recently. With low emission, low fuel cost and high energy efficiency features, alternative fuelled vehicles (AFV’s) provide the promising market in Taiwan. Therefore, the objective of this study is to examine the market acceptance of AFV’s in Taiwan using stated preference modeling approaches. In order to analyze the potential demand for AFVs, multinomial logit models were developed to explore the vehicle and consumer’s characteristics that can significantly influence their preference of purchasing AFV’s. People’s willingness-to-pay for an AFV is then computed based on the estimated parameters. Result of the study shows that vehicle prices, maintenance costs, fuel costs and many other consumer and vehicle factors can significantly influence people decisions to purchase an AFV. High-income people prefer the hybrid cars, while the mid-income consumers prefer to the Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) cars. The potential buyers of the AFVs include: the family which with two or more cars, the no-car user who will buy a car in three years, people with college degree or above and the high income families.

目錄
目錄 IV
圖目錄 VI
表目錄 VII
第一章、緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 研究目的 2
1.3 研究方法 2
1.4 研究流程 3
第二章、文獻探討 5
2.1 替代燃料汽車產業市場概況 5
2.1.1 小結 8
2.2 替代燃料汽車主題相關各國文獻 8
2.2.1 美國替代燃料汽車有關文獻 8
2.2.2 歐洲及紐西蘭替代燃料汽車有關文獻 14
2.3 相關模式與分析方法之文獻 17
2.4 總結 19
第三章、研究方法 21
3.1敘述性偏好法 21
3.1.1 敘述性偏好法的定義與應用 22
3.1.2 實驗設計的原則 23
3.1.3 直交實驗設計 24
3.1.4 敘述性偏好法衡量尺度與參數校估方法 25
3.2 多元羅吉特模式 26
3.3 模式之統計檢定 28
3.4 願付價格 29
第四章、問卷設計與資料蒐集分析 30
4.1 第一階段敘述性偏好問卷內容 30
4.1.1 問卷設計與資料蒐集 30
4.1.2 購車重視屬性的決定 31
4.1.3 設定購車重視因素屬性水準值 34
4.2 第二階段敘述性偏好問卷內容 34
4.2.1 第一部分-車輛使用者特性 35
4.2.2 第二部分-受訪者之社會經濟特性 35
4.2.3 第三部分-敘述性偏好情境實驗設計 35
4.2.4 問卷蒐集說明 39
第五章、模式分析 41
5.1敘述性統計分析 41
5.2 變數說明 44
5.3 多元羅吉特模式結果與分析 45
5.4 願付價格 50
第六章、結論與建議 52
6.1 結論 52
6.2 建議 53
參考文獻 56
一、英文文獻 56
二、中文文獻 60
三、網站資訊 61
附錄一、問卷一 62
附錄二、問卷二 66
附錄三、願付價格計算推導說明 70



圖目錄
圖1.1 研究流程圖 4


表目錄
表2.1 油電汽車優缺點分析 7
表2.2 美國市場發展替代燃料汽車有關文獻 12
表2.3 歐洲、紐西蘭等地區發展替代燃料汽車有關文獻 16
表2.4 相關模式與分析方法有關文獻 19
表3.1 敘述性偏好法之優點與限制分析表 22
表3.2 敘述性偏好衡量尺度方法比較表 26
表4.2 影響消費者購車考量因素相關文獻彙整表 33
表4.3 各屬性水準值設定表 36
表4.4 實驗設計直交表L8(4* ) 37
表4.5 對應屬性實驗設計直交表L8 37
表5.1 車輛使用者特性敘述性統計 42
表5.2 受訪者之社會經濟特性敘述性統計 43
表5.3 變數項目及軟體分析代碼設定 44
表5.4 多元羅吉特模式校估結果 46
表5.5 效用分析參數值與意義 47
表5.6 本研究及國外文獻歸納之替代燃料汽車消費者使用族群 49
表5.7 民眾對各屬性之購買成本願付價格 50
表5.8 家庭所得差異之購買成本願付價格 51

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二、中文文獻

1.周宏儒，「車用導航系統產品之選擇行為」，國立交通大學交通運輸研究所碩士論文，民國91年。

2.李奇，「敘述性偏好模式與顯示性偏好模式比較之研究」，國立成功大學交通管理研究所碩士論文，民國80年。

3.吳采芳，「服務屬性對航空公司選擇行為影響之研究」，國立成功大學交通管理學系碩士論文，民國95年。

4.邱怡璋，「電動機車之潛在需求與敘述性偏好模糊修正模式之研究」，國立交通大學交通運輸研究所碩士論文，民國82年。

5.馬台渝，「電動機車之市場需求及其對經濟、能源與環境影響之研究」，國立交通大學交通運輸研究所碩士論文，民國83年。

6.蔡政霖，「高速公路實施擁擠定價對用路人旅運行為影響之研究」，逢甲大學交通工程與管理所碩士論文，民國92年。




三、網站資訊

1.行政院環保衛生署中國液化石油氣加氣站協會：
http://mobile.epa.gov.tw/Lpg_9.asp

2.能源教育資訊網：http://energy.ie.ntnu.edu.tw/

3.產業創新能耐平台電子報-Prius成功的經營模式：http://paper.poiic.org/html/12_200702/0201.htm

4.中油油品行銷事業部-歷年油品價目變動表： http://www.cpc.com.tw/big5_BD/tmtd/ListPrice/ShowHisToryPrice.asp?pno=53

5.張硯筑，油電複合動力車省油環保效率高：http://paper.poiic.org/html/12_200702/0201.htm

6.張有祥，10年內燃料電池車滿街跑：http://www.homytech.com/rolless_characteristic/fuel_cell.htm

7.黃靖雄，油電混合動力系統之多元應用與發展：
http://www.tier.org.tw/energymonthly/outdatecontent.asp?ReportIssue=9406&;Page=1

美國油電汽車專門網站
8.Hybridblog: http://www.hybridblog.com/

9.Hybridcar: http: //www.hybridcars.com/

10.hybrid owners of america: http://www.hybridownersofamerica.org/