臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本文主要探討旅遊風險知覺與消費決策的相關性，並運用多類別邏輯斯迴歸來分析旅遊風險知覺及基本資料是否影響旅遊保險之主、被動加保的相對支持率。透過問卷調查的方式，經由因素分析後得到「交通安全與醫療系統」、「旅館安全與逃生系統」、「行前探索與危險預防」與「天災人禍與意外防範」等四個旅遊風險知覺構面及「好奇活力與健康懷舊」、「冒險體驗與風潮時尚」與「休閒人生與身心放鬆」等三個旅遊消費決策構面。運用自組織映射圖網路進行集群分析得到「重視個體與可控制變因旅遊者」及「重視總體與不可控制變因旅遊者」兩個類群。研究結果顯示民眾之部份基本資料變項會造成旅遊風險知覺與旅遊消費決策之差異；另外由典型相關分析中得知民眾的旅遊風險知覺程度愈高，對旅遊消費決策的積極性就愈高。最後透過多類別邏輯斯迴歸發現，旅遊風險知覺與基本資料之差異對於主、被動加保產生影響。

This research explored the relationship between tourism risk perception and tourism consumption decision. We also applied multinomial logistic regression to analyze the effects of both tourism risk perception and population to destination active and passive participants from all travel insurers. By factor analysis, four dimensions of tourism risk perceptions were developed, “The traffic safety and medical system,” “The safety of hotel and fleeing system,” “The exploration before taking off and danger prevention,” and “The natural and man-made calamities and accidental precautions.” Three other dimensions of tourism consumption decision were also developed, “A curious, dynamic, healthy, and nostalgic tour,” “An adventurous and modern tour,” and “A leisure and relaxing tour.” By self-organizing map network (SOM) clustering analysis, two groups of tourism risk perceptions were developed, “The tourists who pay attention to the overall tour and uncontrollable factors,” and “The tourists who pay attention to individuality and controllable factors.” Results showed that there were significant differences among partial population characters in tourism risk perception as well as tourism consumption decision. In addition, by canonical correlation analysis, the research found the higher tourism risk perception the people had, the more active the people were in tourism consumption decision. Finally, the multinomial logistic regression showed that both tourism risk perception and partial population characteristics would be the key factors of choosing between active travel insurance and passive travel insurance.

目錄
中文摘要..................................................i
英文摘要.................................................ii
誌謝....................................................iii
目錄.....................................................iv
表目錄....................................................v
圖目錄...................................................vi
壹、緒論..................................................1
一、研究背景與動機........................................1
二、研究目的..............................................4
三、研究方法與步驟........................................5
四、研究對象與資料來源....................................8
五、本文架構..............................................8
貳、理論基礎與相關文獻...................................10
一、旅遊風險知覺.........................................10
二、旅遊消費決策.........................................12
三、自組織映射圖網路 (Self- Organizing Map Network，SOM)................14
四、相關文獻回顧與探討...................................16
參、研究設計與實證模型...................................18
一、實證資料分析(敘述統計)...............................18
二、研究假說.............................................20
三、實證模型建構.........................................22
肆、實證結果.............................................30
一、民眾風險知覺分析.....................................30
二、民眾旅遊風險知覺類群分析.............................32
三、民眾旅遊消費決策分析.................................33
四、假說驗證.............................................34
五、民眾旅遊保險分析―多類別邏輯斯迴歸....................49
六、本章小結.............................................53
伍、結論與建議...........................................56
一、結論.................................................56
二、建議與未來方向.......................................57
參考文獻.................................................59
表目錄
表1-1 全球各地區國際旅遊人數統計表.......................3
表3-1 基本資料分析表....................................20
表4-1 民眾旅遊風險知覺因素分析表........................31
表4-2 民眾旅遊風險知覺類群分析表........................33
表4-3 民眾旅遊消費決策因素分析表........................34
表4-4 民眾基本資料變項與旅遊風險知覺因素之差異檢定分析表..................36
表4-5 民眾基本資料變項與旅遊風險知覺類群之卡方檢定分析表..................39
表4-6 民眾基本資料變項與旅遊消費決策因素之差異檢定分析表..................42
表4-7 民眾旅遊風險知覺類群與旅遊消費決策因素之差異檢定分析表..................44
表4-8 民眾旅遊風險知覺與旅遊消費決策典型相關檢定結果表..................44
表4-9 民眾旅遊風險知覺與旅遊消費決策典型相關分析統計摘要表..................45
表4-10 民眾對旅遊風險知覺與旅遊消費決策之多元迴歸分析摘要表..................48
表4-11 民眾主、被動加保關係認知的多類別邏輯斯迴歸模式估計結果..................52
圖目錄
圖1-1 國際旅遊人數成長趨勢圖.............................2
圖1-2　國際旅遊人數每月變化長條圖.........................2
圖1-3　研究流程...........................................7
圖2-1　自組織映射圖網路架構..............................15
圖3-1　旅遊風險知覺與旅遊消費決策研究假說架構圖..........22
圖3-2　自組織映射圖「鄰近區域」觀念圖....................26
圖4-1 民眾旅遊風險知覺類群行列點圖......................32
圖4-2 民眾旅遊風險知覺與旅遊消費決策典型相關分析徑路圖..................46

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