摘要近幾年來,由於中國經濟快速成長及對美國貿易順差遽增,在中國和美國的政府決策人員、經濟學者、市場參與者間興起了“中國人民幣重估問題”。而這個問題已成為一個熱門問題。它激起各方的激烈辯論關於中國貨幣─人民幣─是否低估和怎麼去定義這低估的人民幣。如果低估的人民幣存在,許多問題將會出現,例如中國是否應該重估它的貨幣價值或立即對人民幣採取浮動匯率機制,以及中國人民幣升值是否能解決中美雙邊貿易嚴重赤字問題。在中美兩國中,這些問題一直倍受爭議。為了幫助瞭解這當前爭論,本篇論文提供簡要的人民幣探討,和描述在這當前爭論的主要論據,以及各方面關於這問題的探討,和最後本文作者根據其本身在高雄的臺灣銀行外匯部門超過十年的工作經驗以及參考經濟學家在各方面關於這問題的研究而做的評估。本論文共分為五章。第一章介紹人民幣重估的問題和它的背景。第二章探討人民幣的歷史。第三章討論"怎麼定義被低估的人民幣,以及如果人民幣被低估存在的話,那人民幣被低估多少？"許多關於這方面問題的研究產生了很多爭論及不一致的結論。如同它的標題所示,第四章研究的是"人民幣升值與中美貿易的關係。"這個章節是本論文的核心，呈現許多事實和分析。第五章是這篇論文的結論,認為只把焦點放在中國的貨幣匯率是不正確的。因為中美貿易巨額逆差源自於其他非匯率因素,不能完全藉由匯率調整來修正。

AbstractFor the past several years, the revaluation of Renminbi has been a hot topic among policymakers and economists as well as market participants both in China and the United States due to China’s rapid economic growth and increasing trade surplus with the United States. It has aroused heated debate on whether the Chinese currency – Renminbi – is undervalued and how to define the undervalued Renminbi. If undervalued Renminbi exists, many problems arise as to whether China should revalue or float its currency immediately as well as whether the Chinese currency appreciation solves the problem of U.S-China trade deficit. These issues have remained controversial both in China and the United States. To help understand the current debate, this thesis provides a brief exploration of Renminbi and a description of the main arguments in the current debate and looks at various aspects concerning these issues. Finally, writer offers herself evaluation based on over 10 years’ work experience in Exchange Industry at Bank of Taiwan in Kaohsiung, Taiwan as well as various aspects from economists in this regard. This thesis includes five chapters. Chapter One introduces the issue of Renminbi’s revaluation and its background. Chapter Two discusses the history of Renminbi. Chapter Three is devoted to the discussion of the problem “How to define undervalued Renminbi and how much is Renminbi undervalued if undervalued Renminbi exists.” The numerous studies on this issue have caused a lot of debate, rather than contributed to a consensus. As its title indicates, Chapter Four deals with “Renminbi revaluation in relation to the U.S.-China trade.” This Chapter is the core and pivot of this thesis. More facts and analyses are shown here. Finally, in Chapter Five, this thesis concludes that focusing on China’s currency exchange rate is a distraction. The large U.S.-China trade deficit stems also from other non-exchange factors and could not be fully corrected through exchange rate adjustments.

Table of Contents Chapter One Introduction 6 Background and Motivation 7 Purpose of the Study 11 Research Questions 12 Research Method 13 Summary and Overview 14 Relevant Literature Review 16 Chapter Two History of the Chinese Currency – Renminbi 20 A Brief Exploration of the Chinese Currency – Renminbi 21 Exchange Rate of the American Dollar vs. Chinese Currency – Renminbi 23 Shortcomings of Renminbi Exchange Rate Policy 27 Chapter Three Definition of the Undervalued Renminbi 29 The Development of Renminbi’s Undervaluation 30 An Outline of Different Opinions on Assessing Renminbi Valuation 32 The Concept of an Equilibrium Exchange Rate 35 An Assessment Mechanism of Renminbi’s Equilibrium Exchage Rate — Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) Index 37 Debate on How Much Renminbi Is Undervalued 41 Arguments against Immediate Renminbi Revaluation or Floating 45 Chapter Four Renminbi Revaluation in Relation to the U.S.-China Trade 49 U.S.-China Trade Deficit in Context 50 The U.S.-China Trade Issue — A Political Issue 57 The Renminbi’s Undervaluation and U.S.-China Trade’s Imbalances 59 China’s Trade Surplus against U.S. 62 China’s Buildup of Foreign Exchange Reserves 68 Trade Balance vs. Current Account Balance 71 Government Market Intervention in Relation to a Bad Exchange Rate 72 Speculative Investment Flows into China—A Vicious Circle 74 Global Risks and China’s Need for Exchange Rate Flexibility 76 Asian Neighbors and China’s Exchange Rate Risk 78 Misplaced Emphasis on China’s Exchange Rate 80 Chapter Five Conclusion 86 Possible Consequences for U.S.-China Trade after a Big Renminbi Appreciation 87 Renminbi Not the Real Problem to U.S.-China Bilateral Trade Deficit 88 References 91 Appendixes 101

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