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研究生(外文):Mei-lin Chen
指導教授(外文):Pen-shui Liao
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AbstractFor the past several years, the revaluation of Renminbi has been a hot topic among policymakers and economists as well as market participants both in China and the United States due to China’s rapid economic growth and increasing trade surplus with the United States. It has aroused heated debate on whether the Chinese currency – Renminbi – is undervalued and how to define the undervalued Renminbi. If undervalued Renminbi exists, many problems arise as to whether China should revalue or float its currency immediately as well as whether the Chinese currency appreciation solves the problem of U.S-China trade deficit. These issues have remained controversial both in China and the United States. To help understand the current debate, this thesis provides a brief exploration of Renminbi and a description of the main arguments in the current debate and looks at various aspects concerning these issues. Finally, writer offers herself evaluation based on over 10 years’ work experience in Exchange Industry at Bank of Taiwan in Kaohsiung, Taiwan as well as various aspects from economists in this regard. This thesis includes five chapters. Chapter One introduces the issue of Renminbi’s revaluation and its background. Chapter Two discusses the history of Renminbi. Chapter Three is devoted to the discussion of the problem “How to define undervalued Renminbi and how much is Renminbi undervalued if undervalued Renminbi exists.” The numerous studies on this issue have caused a lot of debate, rather than contributed to a consensus. As its title indicates, Chapter Four deals with “Renminbi revaluation in relation to the U.S.-China trade.” This Chapter is the core and pivot of this thesis. More facts and analyses are shown here. Finally, in Chapter Five, this thesis concludes that focusing on China’s currency exchange rate is a distraction. The large U.S.-China trade deficit stems also from other non-exchange factors and could not be fully corrected through exchange rate adjustments.
Table of Contents Chapter One Introduction 6 Background and Motivation 7 Purpose of the Study 11 Research Questions 12 Research Method 13 Summary and Overview 14 Relevant Literature Review 16 Chapter Two History of the Chinese Currency – Renminbi 20 A Brief Exploration of the Chinese Currency – Renminbi 21 Exchange Rate of the American Dollar vs. Chinese Currency – Renminbi 23 Shortcomings of Renminbi Exchange Rate Policy 27 Chapter Three Definition of the Undervalued Renminbi 29 The Development of Renminbi’s Undervaluation 30 An Outline of Different Opinions on Assessing Renminbi Valuation 32 The Concept of an Equilibrium Exchange Rate 35 An Assessment Mechanism of Renminbi’s Equilibrium Exchage Rate — Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) Index 37 Debate on How Much Renminbi Is Undervalued 41 Arguments against Immediate Renminbi Revaluation or Floating 45 Chapter Four Renminbi Revaluation in Relation to the U.S.-China Trade 49 U.S.-China Trade Deficit in Context 50 The U.S.-China Trade Issue — A Political Issue 57 The Renminbi’s Undervaluation and U.S.-China Trade’s Imbalances 59 China’s Trade Surplus against U.S. 62 China’s Buildup of Foreign Exchange Reserves 68 Trade Balance vs. Current Account Balance 71 Government Market Intervention in Relation to a Bad Exchange Rate 72 Speculative Investment Flows into China—A Vicious Circle 74 Global Risks and China’s Need for Exchange Rate Flexibility 76 Asian Neighbors and China’s Exchange Rate Risk 78 Misplaced Emphasis on China’s Exchange Rate 80 Chapter Five Conclusion 86 Possible Consequences for U.S.-China Trade after a Big Renminbi Appreciation 87 Renminbi Not the Real Problem to U.S.-China Bilateral Trade Deficit 88 References 91 Appendixes 101
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