臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

摘要
面對股票市場上價格的不當定價，投資者最好的解決方法之一就是計算出個股的內涵價值。這篇研究使用自由現金流量評價模型來計算出散裝航運公司的內涵價值。
更進一步，這篇研究將散裝航運運價遠期合約的合約價來推估散裝航運公司未來的營收展望。通常，錯誤的未來的營收展望將導致錯誤的評價結果。藉由加入遠期合約的合約價來推估未來的營收展望，評價結果的正確性將進一步提升。
最後，這篇研究將2008年1月1日到2008年6月30日的股價平均值當成基準值，比較各評價模型推算的結果與基準值的誤差。發現結合遠期合約合約價的自由現金流量評價模型有著最低的偏差值。

ABSTRACT
This study calculates the intrinsic value of the dry bulk shipping company by using the free cash flow (FCF) model[1]. This intrinsic value provides a solution for investors to overcome the stock market mispricing.
Furthermore, this study uses Freight Forward Agreement (FFA) prices as the future prospect indicators for the dry bulk shipping industry. Usually, wrong estimating future prospects result in wrong valuation outcomes. By adding this future indicator, the accuracy of valuation outcome can be better enhanced.
Finally, by using average stock market price as criteria, this study compares the biases among the different valuation models. The FCF model coupling with the FFA prices as future indicators has a minimum bias. It explains that FCF model coupling with the FFA prices is more effective for the investors to calculate the intrinsic value.

CONTENTS
I. INTRODUCTION 4
II. LITERATURE REVIEW 7
III. RESEARCH METHOD 13
IV. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS 16
V. IMPLICATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS 24
VI. REFERENCE 25

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