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研究生:楊政勳
研究生(外文):Jeng-Shiun Yang
論文名稱:散裝航運公司的股權價值分析
論文名稱(外文):Equity Valuation of Dry Bulk Shipping Company
指導教授:劉德明劉德明引用關係
指導教授(外文):Der-Ming Lieu
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立中山大學
系所名稱:財務管理學系研究所
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:財務金融學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2008
畢業學年度:96
語文別:英文
論文頁數:29
中文關鍵詞:評價內涵價值
外文關鍵詞:valuationintrinsic valueFFA
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摘要
面對股票市場上價格的不當定價,投資者最好的解決方法之一就是計算出個股的內涵價值。這篇研究使用自由現金流量評價模型來計算出散裝航運公司的內涵價值。
更進一步,這篇研究將散裝航運運價遠期合約的合約價來推估散裝航運公司未來的營收展望。通常,錯誤的未來的營收展望將導致錯誤的評價結果。藉由加入遠期合約的合約價來推估未來的營收展望,評價結果的正確性將進一步提升。
最後,這篇研究將2008年1月1日到2008年6月30日的股價平均值當成基準值,比較各評價模型推算的結果與基準值的誤差。發現結合遠期合約合約價的自由現金流量評價模型有著最低的偏差值。
ABSTRACT
This study calculates the intrinsic value of the dry bulk shipping company by using the free cash flow (FCF) model[1]. This intrinsic value provides a solution for investors to overcome the stock market mispricing.
Furthermore, this study uses Freight Forward Agreement (FFA) prices as the future prospect indicators for the dry bulk shipping industry. Usually, wrong estimating future prospects result in wrong valuation outcomes. By adding this future indicator, the accuracy of valuation outcome can be better enhanced.
Finally, by using average stock market price as criteria, this study compares the biases among the different valuation models. The FCF model coupling with the FFA prices as future indicators has a minimum bias. It explains that FCF model coupling with the FFA prices is more effective for the investors to calculate the intrinsic value.
CONTENTS
I. INTRODUCTION 4
II. LITERATURE REVIEW 7
III. RESEARCH METHOD 13
IV. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS 16
V. IMPLICATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS 24
VI. REFERENCE 25
REFERENCE
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Bernard, Victor, Jacob Thomas, and James Wahlen, 1997, “Accounting-based stock price anomalies: Separating market inefficiencies from risk”, Contemporary Accounting Research Vol. 14 No.2 (Summer 1997), 89-136
Bosworth, Derek and Wharton, Alex, 2000, “Intangible Assets and the Market Valuation of UK Companies: Evidence from Fixed Effects Models”, Working paper, UMIST
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Froidevaux, Pascal, 2004, “ Fundamental Equity Valuation”, Working Paper, University of Fribourg (Switzerland)
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Walker, Martin, 2003, “ What Valuation Models Do Analysts Use?”, Working Paper, The University of Manchester
Williams, J., 1938, “The theory of investment value”, Cambridge, MA, Harvard University Press
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