臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

隨著國際間的政治與總體經濟環境相互依存性逐漸地增強，亞洲部分國家的金融市場採漸進式的改革政策，使金融市場邁向自由化與國際化，然而國際金融市場的整合，也引起學界探討國際股市關聯程度的相關議題。然Granger and （1993）曾提及多數的經濟變數具有非線性的性質，Chelley-Steeley（2004）以平滑轉換模型探討新興國家股票市場及已開發國家股票市場間的區域性與全球性的整合現象。平滑轉換模型中考量了參數以漸近式變動的可能性，輔以計量方法予以檢定，並於研究之樣本期間內，估計模型參數是否具有漸進式的改變。
本文引用Chelley-Steeley（2004）的平滑轉換模型，進行東亞三國與美日德間股市非線性關係之研究，且探討股市整合的現象，並以線性模型、非線性原始模型與非線性延伸模型進行比較，實證結果發現，非線性延伸模型相較於線性及非線性原始模型之配適度具有較佳的表現。

With gradually increasing interdependence of international political and economic environments, part of Asian countries'' financial markets reform adopted progressive policies towards liberalization and internationalization. Therefore, the integration of international financial markets has attracted a bunch of scholars to investigate related topics of international stock market. Granger and (1993) documented that most of the economic variables have nonlinear characters. Chelley-Steeley (2004) uses smooth transition regression model to explore the financial market integration of regional and global markets among emerging and developed countries. Smooth transition regression model considered the possibility of nonlinear changes in regression parameters.
This paper applies the smooth transition regression model to reinvestigate Chelley-Steeley’s (2004) study of nonlinear relationship of stock markets among some East Asian countries and the United States, Japan and Germany. The main difference of our model and Chelley-Steeley’ model is that we relax his constant market index correlation between two countries by allowing the autoregressive process on market index correlation. Empirical evidences of linear model, original non-linear model and our non-linear extension model show that our non-linear extension model outperformedthe other two models in terms of goodness of fit.

第壹章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 1
第二節 研究架構 2
第貳章 文獻回顧 3
第一節 非線性模相關文獻之探討 3
第二節 國際股市關聯性相關文獻之探討 5
第參章 模型介紹與實證研究方法 7
第一節 模型介紹 7
一、 平滑轉換迴歸模型 7
二、 原始模型 11
三、 延伸模型 12
第二節 實證研究方法 15
一、 單根檢定 16
二、 STR模型之建構 17
三、 診斷性分析 22
四、 模型選擇之準則 24
五、 非線性模型殘差之DF-GLS單根檢定 25
第肆章 實證分析與結果 26
第一節 實證資料來源與處理 26
一、 資料來源與樣本期間 26
二、 資料處理 26
第二節 實證結果分析 27
一、 單根檢定 27
二、 非線性模型之估計與檢定 27
三、 模型之參數估計 31
四、 線性模型之診斷性分析 56
五、 非線性模型之診斷性分析 57
六、 配適模型之選擇 63
七、 非線性延伸模型殘差之DF-GLS單根檢定 64
第伍章 結論 66
參考文獻 69

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