本文以1970年-2004年台灣對外貿易資料,利用進出口值比重和產業內貿易指數 (intra-industry trade index, IIT),分析產業結構變遷和貿易型態之趨勢。此外,再利用生產密集度 (production intensity index, PII)衡量台灣各個產業 30年來出口產品輪動的現象。實證結果如下 :(1)台灣進出口產業結構主要以技術性密集產業比重最高,而自然資源密集產業比重最低。(2)產業內貿易指數的部份,在四種分類產業中,僅非技術性勞力密集產業之產業內貿易指數小於1,為垂直分工的單邊貿易型態,其餘產業皆為水平分工的產業。 (3)2004年的全球貿易資料顯現,台灣產業中生產密集度較高有:光學儀器和裝置、家具及家具零件、晶體管和電子管、編織物、人造綿紗織物等產品。另外,在1970年晶體管和電子管和編織外套生產密集度較高。 1979年以家具及家具零件、機動或非機動的自行車為主。 1989年電力機械之生產密集度攀升為第四名,而1999年生產密集度較高的有人造訪纖產品、機動或非機動的自行車和家具及家具零件。

Along with the trend of globalization, production process becomes more and more disintegrated across country borders. In order to better analyzing the trade structure, we follow the methodology which the trade product will be divided into five categories by Fukasaku (1992). Therefore, by using the analysis of intra-industry trade index and production intensity index, this paper investigates the evolution of industrial structures and trade patterns for the last three decades in Taiwan. The major findings are as follows: (1) The technology-intensive industries are the main export commodities. (2) In the four categories, only technology intensive industries are the unilateral trade patterns, the others are the intra-industry trade patterns. (3) According to a ranking of the PII index in 2004, optical instruments were the highest, the furniture was the second, the third was semi-conductor devices.

致謝.......................................................i
中文摘要...................................................ii
Abstract.................................................iii
目錄......................................................iv
表次......................................................vi
圖次.....................................................vii
第一章緒論..................................................1
第一節研究背景與動機.........................................1
第二節研究方法..............................................2
第三節論文架構..............................................3
第二章文獻回顧..............................................4
第一節國際貿易與產品生命週期循環理論...........................4
第二節產業內貿易源起與發展....................................6
第三節出口產品生產密集度的衡量................................7
第三章產業結構與貿易型態分析..................................9
第一節台灣產業發展...........................................9
第二節產業貿易資料說明......................................11
第三節產業結構分析..........................................13
第四節產貿易型態分析........................................16
第五節出口品產業動態........................................37
第四章生產密集度之衡量......................................38
第一節生產密集度定義與資料之說明..............................38
第二節四種分類產業之平均生產密集度結果分析.....................39
第三節個別出口產品與生產密集度之關係..........................40
第四節產業技術密集度更迭.....................................59
第五章結論.................................................64
參考文獻...................................................66
附錄一....................................................68

[1] 陳慧瀅, (1997), 「台灣產業結構變遷之探討」, 經濟情勢暨評論, 3(4):150-161。
[2] 張順教、史惠慈, (2006), 「亞洲ICT 產業版塊動態調整之分析」, 世新經濟2006年學術研討會。
[3] 劉碧珍、陳添枝、翁永和, (2002), 國際貿易理論與政策, 台北: 雙葉書廊。
[4] Balassa, B., (1987), “Intra-Industry Specialization: A Cross-Country Analysis,” European economic Review, 30:27-42.
[5] Dixit, A. K. and Stiglitz, J. E., (1977), “Monopolistic Competition and
Optimum Product Diversity,” American Economic Review. 67(3):297-308.
[6] Feenstra R.C., (1998), “Integration of Trade and Disintegration of Production in Global Economy,” Journal of Economic Perspectives. 12:31-50.
[7] Fukasaku, K., (1992), “Economic Regionalisation and Intra-Industry Trade: Pacific Asian Perspectives,” OECD Development Centre Working Paper 53.
[8] Greenaway, D., Hine, R., and Milner, C.,(1995), “Vertical and Horizontal Intra-Industry Trade: A Cross-Industry Analysis for. the United Kingdom,” The Journal of Economics. 105(433):1505-1518.
[9] Grubel, H. G. and Lloyd, P. J., (1971), “The Empirical Measurement of Intra-Industry Trade,” Economic Record. 47:449-457.
[10] Helpman, E. and Krugman, P., (1985), “Market Structure and Foreign Trade,” The MIT Press. Cambridge, MA.
[11] Hummels, D. and Levinsohn, J., (1995), “Monopolistic competition and international trade: Reconsidering the evidence,” Quarterly Journal of Economics. 110:797-836.
[12] Krugman, P., (1979), “Increasing Returns, Monopolistic Competition, and International Trade,” Journal of International Economics. 9(4):469-479.
[13] Rodrik, D., (2006), “What’s So Special about China’s Exports?” China and the World Economy. 14(5):1-19.
[14] van Assche, A. and Gangnes, B., (2007), “Electronics Production Upgrading: Is China Exceptional?,” CIRANO Working Paper. 2007s-16.
[15] Vernon, R., (1966), “International Investment and International Trade in the Product Cycle,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics. 80(2):190-207.